CareEdge Economic Meter & Q4 FY25 GDP Preview
CareEdge Economic Meter (CEM) Indicates Recovery in Growth Momentum in Q4 FY25
* CEM expanded by 3.0% YoY in Q4 FY25 higher than 2.6% growth in Q3 FY25, indicating uptick in economic activity.
* The CEM is further analysed through a machine learning method to analyse and project the expected YoY GDP growth for Q4 FY25.
* According to our model, real GDP growth for Q4 FY25 is projected to be 6.8%. This quarterly performance brings the full-year FY25 GDP growth to 6.3%, slightly lower than our earlier forecast of 6.4%.
* GVA growth for Q4 FY25 is projected at 6.5%.
Q4 FY25 GDP Growth is Projected at 6.8%
* Q4 FY25 GDP growth projected at 6.8% which brings FY25 growth at 6.3%, lower than second advance estimate of 6.5%.
* GDP growth in Q4 FY25 is likely to be supported by strong momentum in sectors such as agriculture, hotels & transport and construction. Festivities during the ‘MahaKumbh’ should support hospitality and transportation.
* While overall consumption growth is likely to remain healthy, supported by rural demand, the mixed outlook of urban demand needs monitoring.
* Strong central capex disbursement towards the end of Q3 will support investment growth in Q4.
* Going forward, factors such as recovering rural demand, a lower tax burden, policy rate cuts, falling inflation, and expectations of a good monsoon should support an improvement in economic activity.
* A sustained recovery in consumption will be critical to drive a meaningful uptick in corporate capex. However, global uncertainties pose a headwind. We expect the FY26 GDP growth at 6.2%.
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