Buy Minda Corporation Ltd for the Target Rs.775 by Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd
Minda Corporation (MDA) reported a stellar Q4, with revenue growth accelerating to 29% YoY (vs 25%/19% in Q3/Q2FY26). EBITDA grew 33% YoY to Rs2bn and EBITDAM stood at 11.9% (vs our expectation of 11.5%) on the back of lower staff/opex, partially offset by gross margin (GM) compression. The management gave guidance of >20% topline growth in FY27, driven by 3 key segments—Wiring Harness (premiumization and HV cables driving kit value), Instrument Clusters (multiple TFT cluster orders across PVs/CVs/2Ws entering SOP over coming quarters), and Die Casting (export-focused Pune plant ramp-up). While commodity costs would largely be pass-on, Minda does not expect any relief in the near term, given the uncertain macro environment, which could strain margins. Minda Vast (contributed ~8% of FY26 consolidated revenue) is being merged with Minda. Minda VAST (JV), which logged ~Rs5bn revenue at 7% EBITDAM in FY26. Factoring in the VAST flowthrough into FY27 topline growth (20% FY27 growth guidance includes VAST integration), coupled with the relatively weak margin print of ex-JV, our EPS and TP (Rs775, at 33x Mar-28E PER) are unchanged; maintain BUY
Revenue growth accelerates further
Minda clocked its highest-ever consol revenue at Rs.17bn, up 29% YoY (vs Emkay: 15.7bn), which is attributed to a strong growth in wiring harness and instrument clusters coupled with continued focus on product premiumization. EBITDA came in at Rs2bn (up 33% YoY/11% QoQ), with EBITDAM at 11.9% (Emkay: 11.5%). APAT stands at Rs1.2bn.
Earnings call KTAs
1) MDA gave guidance of at least a 15% faster growth than the industry. For FY27, the mgmt guided for overall growth of >20%, led by the PV segment.
2) MDA booked a total lifetime order value of Rs35bn in Q4FY26, and cumulative new order wins now stand at Rs100bn (existing and emerging product categories); the execution period for the orders is ~48–60M which grants strong multi-year revenue visibility. Exports account for ~20% of the new order book.
3) Instrument clusters are emerging as a key growth vector with multiple orders wins for TFT clusters (3-inch to 15-inch displays) across PVs/CVs/2Ws. These will enter SOP over coming quarters.
4) In Wiring Harness, average kit value per vehicle rose ~20% across product lines. Of the 29% volume growth in FY26, ~12–13% came from premiumization, per mgmt. Localization within WH (connectors, couplers) is the key focus (~18–19% of components now in-house).
5) Die casting is also expected to see traction in FY27, (mainly exports). One plant is already operational in Noida, and a fifth plant in Pune is being commissioned (~18M to be fully ready). Orders in die casting for EV motors have been secured and are expected to enter mass production within the next 2–3 quarters.
6) JV with Turntide (UK) is strategically vital as it brings axial flux motor tech into MDA.
7) JV with Toyo Denso is expected to generate orders from Japanese OEMs (to start from Q4FY27).
8) Minda Vast JV merged into MDA – this should help accelerate FY27 revenue growth.
9) Commodity costs (copper, zinc, and aluminium) escalated ~30–40% through FY26. 10) FY27 capex guidance stands at ~Rs4–4.5bn.
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