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2026-10-16 11:43:22 am | Source: Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd
Buy Karur Vysya Bank Ltd for the Target Rs 420 by Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd
Buy Karur Vysya Bank Ltd for the Target Rs 420 by Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd

KVB reported a 3% PAT beat at Rs7.9bn (ROA: 2.1%), driven by higher NII and provisions coming in ~41% below estimated, partly offset by lower other income (~18% below estimated). Credit growth remained robust at 20.4% yoy, led by broad-based traction across commercial and corporate segments, while deposit growth accelerated to 16% yoy/4.5% qoq, supported by healthy CASA growth and stable CASA ratio of 27.5%. KVB has mobilized FCNR B deposit of Rs6.8bn. NIM was stable at 4.26% (excluding one-off interest income), with Management guidance of NIM above 4% going ahead. Asset quality improved, with GNPA declining to 0.7%, while adequate provisioning buffers provide flexibility to manage transition to the ECL framework. Management expects FY27 credit growth of 18–20% and ROA of ~2%. We raise our earnings estimates by 2-11% and expect ROA to remain at ~2% over FY27-29E. We reiterate BUY while revising up our TP by ~8% to Rs420 from Rs390, valuing the bank at 1.9x Sep-28E ABV

Growth accelerates; margin stable qoq

KVB posted strong credit growth of 20.4% yoy/6.6% qoq, driven by broad-based traction across commercial and corporate segments. Retail loans grew 20.8% yoy/4.5% qoq, led by mortgages along with personal and deposit loans, while housing, retail jewelry, and vehicle loans were relatively muted. Deposit growth accelerated to 16% yoy/4.5% qoq, supported by healthy CASA growth of 15.4% yoy/4.4% qoq, keeping CASA ratio stable at 27.5%. NIM was stable at 4.26% (ex one-off interest income), with Mgmt guidance of NIM above 4% going ahead. However, higher deposit rates following 1Q revisions have increased the cost of fresh deposit mobilization, with funding costs expected to remain elevated over coming 2-3M. KVB expects FY27 credit growth of 18-20%.

Healthy asset quality, but prudent provision buffers built in

KVB’s gross slippages moderated to Rs1.2bn (0.5% of loans), while better recoveries and write-offs led to a 5bps qoq improvement in GNPA to 0.7% and NNPA remained stable at 0.2%. KVB has also built adequate provisioning buffers, including Rs1bn for West Asiarelated risks, Rs1bn in contingency provisions last year and an additional Rs250mn in 2QFY27. Further, 41% of the Rs3.73bn restructuring pool is already provided for, offering sufficient levers to manage the transition to ECL framework.

We retain BUY on KVB; raise TP by 7.7%

We raise our earnings estimates, within the 2-11% range, factoring in the better operating leverage and contained credit cost; we expect the bank to deliver superior ROA of ~2% over FY27-29E. Thus, we reiterate BUY on KVB while revising up TP by ~8% to Rs420 from Rs390, valuing the bank at 1.9x Sep-28 ABV. Key risks: Slower-thanexpected growth and resurgence of NPAs in the retail an/SME sectors due to macro/micro dislocation.

 

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