Buy Greenply Industries Ltd for Target Rs. 355 by Choice Institutional Equities
Key Conference Call Highlights
Operational Metrics
* Management expects the debt-to-equity ratio to increase to 0.70–0.72x in FY27 (vs the current level of 0.5x), before moderating to the normalised level of 0.5x in FY28
* Recommended a final dividend of 0.5/share
* Effective tax rate for FY27 will be around 22.0%
Plywood Segment:
* Industry growth remains subdued at approximately 3–4%, with market share gains primarily driven by the ongoing shift towards organised players
* Timber prices remained stable during 4QFY26 and are expected to remain steady going forward
* Guidance: Management expects 10% volume growth with EBITDA margin of 9% for FY27
* MTLM has implemented a new "control technology" in its plywood plants to improve quality and make products more suitable for machine-led OEM manufacturing
MDF Segment
* Industry growing faster at 15–20%, driven by rising demand and structural shift toward engineered wood
* Management taken 15% of price hike, effective from April month due to geopollical tensions
* Guidance: Management expects volume growth of 25–30% and EBITDA margin of ~17% for FY27E
* MTLM holds ~8% market share in MDF industry
PVC Door and Windows
* The newly commissioned PVC/WPC doors and frames business with installed capacity of 6Mn kg (doors) and 3Mn kg (door frames), targeting incremental growth
* Management targets revenue of INR 750–800 Mn for FY27E
Furniture Hardware JV (Greenply Samet)
* Business is in an investment and scale-up phase
* Break-even is expected around FY28, with profitability likely to improve as domestic manufacturing ramps up and volumes scale
* MTLM appointed 87 dealers in Q4FY26, taking its active dealer count to 559
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SEBI Registration no.: INZ 000160131
