Buy Bajaj Consumer Care Ltd For Target Rs.690 by Choice Institutional Equities
ADHO Turnaround Revives Volume-led Growth Momentum ADHO, after a prolonged phase of volume decline, market share erosion and margin pressure, witnessed a strong turnaround in FY26. The new management implemented a multi-pronged revival strategy focussed on volume-led growth, strategic pricing, portfolio mix optimisation and higher brand investments. BCCL’s revived sachets and INR 10/20 packs, improved distribution through “Project Aarohan,” and significantly increased advertising and digital spend, helped the core ADHO portfolio, which grew ~25% in FY26. Simultaneously, calibrated pricing, ml-age (grammage)- optimisation and tighter channel spending supported gradual margin recovery while sustaining a healthy volume growth.
Scaling up Non-ADHO ‘Growth Portfolio:’ Target of INR 5 Bn BCCL is scaling up its non-ADHO “Growth Portfolio,” comprising Coconut Oil, Banjara’s (personal care), and other emerging brands, with a target to increase revenue, from INR 2.25 Bn in FY26 to INR 5 Bn in the next three years. BCCL has shifted Coconut Oil towards a profitability-focused, brand-led strategy through calibrated pricing, mix improvement, and value-added offering, such as Bajaj Gold Enriched Coconut Hair Oil. Meanwhile, the VPCL (Banjara’s) acquisition strengthens BCCL’s South India presence and herbal portfolio, while Project Aarohan and rising Modern Trade/Ecommerce saliency continue to improve distribution, premiumisation and innovation capabilities across the portfolio.
Project Aarohan: Building a Stronger Distribution Engine for Long-term Growth Project Aarohan is BCCL’s large-scale Route-to-Market (RTM) transformation initiative aimed at strengthening distribution reach, outlet productivity and General Trade execution across both, ADHO and non-ADHO, portfolios. Since its rollout in FY25, the program has expanded across eight core states under Phase 1 and 2, increased direct reach by over 10% to nearly 6 lakh outlets and added 25,000– 38,000 new outlets through better rural penetration, distributor optimisation and technology-led execution using geotagging and geofencing. Aarohan states delivered 25%–40% higher outlet coverage and ~4% better growth versus nonimplementation states, significantly aiding GT recovery in FY26. Following the success of Phase 1 and 2, Project Aarohan has now entered Phase 3, expanding the initiative into Bihar, Gujarat, Jharkhand, Odisha, and Punjab to drive the next leg of distribution-led growth.
Valuation and View: Bajaj Consumer Care offers an attractive medium-term growth story, driven by ADHO recovery, scaling up of the non-ADHO Growth Portfolio, premiumisation and Project Aarohan-led distribution expansion. Sustained DoubleDigit growth, improving product mix and operating leverage are expected to drive Revenue/EBITDA/PAT CAGR of 15%/19%/19%, respectively, over FY26–29E. We initiate coverage with a ‘BUY’ rating and a one-year DCF-based target price of INR 690, implying 31% upside from the current level implying P/E of ~32x FY28E EPS and implied PEG of 1.8 (one of the lowest in the sector).
Upside Trigger: Faster scaling of the non-ADHO portfolio, successful execution of Project Aarohan Phase 3, sustained ADHO market share gains, and stronger traction in Modern Trade, E-commerce, and Quick Commerce.
Key Risks: Raw material inflation, Aggressive competitive pricing, Weaker rural demand, and slower than expected execution of Project Aarohan and Banjara’s integration.
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