RBI cuts repo rate by 25 bps to 6% for second time in a row
With an aim to support a shuttering economy hit by reciprocal tariffs imposed by the US, the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) unanimously voted to reduce the policy repo rate by 25 basis points to 6.00 per cent with immediate effect, for the second time in a row. Moreover, it also decided to change the stance from neutral to accommodative. Consequently, the standing deposit facility (SDF) rate under the liquidity adjustment facility (LAF) shall stand adjusted to 5.75 per cent and the marginal standing facility (MSF) rate and the Bank Rate to 6.25 per cent. This decision is in consonance with the objective of achieving the medium-term target for consumer price index (CPI) inflation of 4 per cent within a band of +/- 2 per cent, while supporting growth.
CPI-based inflation declined by a cumulative 1.6 percentage points during January-February 2025, from 5.2 per cent in December 2024 to a low of 3.6 per cent in February 2025. On the back of a strong seasonal correction in vegetable prices this year, food inflation dropped to a 21-month low of 3.8 per cent in February. Fuel group continued to remain in deflation. Core inflation, after remaining steady in December 2024-January 2025, inched up to 4.1 per cent in February 2025, driven primarily by a sharp pick-up in gold prices. CPI inflation for the financial year 2025-26 is projected at 4.0 per cent, with Q1 at 3.6 per cent; Q2 at 3.9 per cent; Q3 at 3.8 per cent; and Q4 at 4.4 per cent.
On the economy front, the National Statistics Office (NSO) has estimated real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth at 6.5 per cent for 2024-25, on top of 9.2 per cent in 2023-24. Going forward, sustained demand from rural areas, an anticipated revival in urban consumption, expected recovery of fixed capital formation supported by increased government capital expenditure, higher capacity utilisation, and healthy balance sheets of corporates and banks are expected to support growth. Real GDP growth for 2025-26 is now projected at 6.5 per cent, with Q1 at 6.5 per cent; Q2 at 6.7 per cent; Q3 at 6.6 per cent; and Q4 at 6.3 per cent.
