Bank Nifty opened on a firm note and traded in a 329 points narrow range throughout the session - ICICI Direct
Nifty : 25574
Technical Outlook
Day that was…
Equity benchmark started the week on a positive note tracking positive global cues to settle at 25,574 down 0.34%. Nifty Midcap and Small cap has mirrored the benchmark performance up 0.47% and 0.35%. Market breadth was in favor of declines with an A/D ratio 1:1.2. Barring Realty, PSU banks , all other indices closed in green, while IT, and Pharma were the top performers.
Technical Outlook:
* Post six session, index has managed to cross above its previous session high, indicating a pause in ongoing corrective bias The daily price action formed a small bull candle carrying higher-high-low, indicating intraday dips were bought into.
* The index witnessed a rebound after retesting its 14-month falling trendline resistance, which has now turned into support as per the principle of polarity. The area also aligns with the 50-day EMA, indicating emergence of supportive efforts near key levels. Going forward, volatility is likely to remain elevated amid the Bihar election outcome, leading to short-term fluctuations and sector-specific moves. The index is expected to consolidate within the 25,100–25,800 range as we approach the fag end of the earnings season. Strong support is placed at 25,100, while a decisive breakout above 25,800 could trigger a fresh leg of up-move towards the life-time high of 26,300 by December 2025.
Following observations makes us reiterate our positive stance:
* Past three weeks 800 points decline is more of a healthy retracement of October month's 1500 points rally. The slower pace of retracement reinforces the structural uptrend.
* While sailing through global volatility, Midcap index ha relatively outperformed the benchmark move and managed to settle the day on a positive note, highlighting relative outperformance. Hence focus should be stocks with strong earnings
* In contrast with Q1FY26 earnings, the lack of disappointment on earning front has provided cushion to the market that would pave the way for next leg of up move
* Since 2000, November has given positive returns with 66% strike rate wherein average returns have been >2%
Key Monitorable for the next week:
* Bihar Election outcome
* Development on India-US tariff negotiations
* U.S. Dollar Index: Once again Dollar index has retreated from upper band of four months consolidation placed at 100. Follow through weakness would be positive for emerging markets
Intraday Rational:
* Trend- Formation of Higher-high-low, finding support near 50-day EMA
* Levels: Buy on declines near 80% retracement of previous day up move (25621-25747)
Nifty Bank : 57937
Technical Outlook
Day that was:
Bank Nifty closed the day on a positive note for the second consecutive session to settle at 57,937 up 0.10%. The Nifty Private Bank index has mirrored the benchmark and closed mild positive to settle at 27,946 up 0.04%
Technical Outlook:
* Bank Nifty opened on a firm note and traded in a 329 points narrow range throughout the session. Consequently, the index formed a small bull candle carrying small upper wick, indicating range bound session.
* Index continues to trade in higher-high-low pattern for the second consecutive session, indicating revival of its prevailing uptrend and pause in its short-term corrective bias. Post its breakout from the all-time high, the index is undergoing healthy consolidation within a broader 1500-point range (58,577-57,100), signaling digestion of prior gains. Over the past tenth sessions, Bank Nifty has retraced only 38.2% of its preceding 2500-point rally, suggesting a shallow retracement and resilience in trend strength.
* Momentum indicators such as the RSI continue to sustain above the 60 level on both weekly and monthly timeframes, maintaining a positive medium-term bias. Hence, focus should be on accumulating quality stocks on dips backed by strong earnings as immediate support is placed near 56,500, corresponding to the 50% retracement of the ongoing advance (54,226–58,577).
* Historically, there have been 17 instances over the past two decades where Bank Nifty, following a decisive breakout above its previous twomonth high, delivered double-digit returns within the subsequent four months. In the current setup, the index has once again confirmed a breakout above its prior two-month high and surpassed the previous alltime peak, reaffirming the prevailing bullish structure. This setup indicates a high-probability continuation pattern for sustained upside momentum in the coming months.
* The PSU Bank Index continues to outperform, maintaining a higher-high, higher-low formation for the tenth-straight week on the back of strong Q2 earnings. The formation of a higher base above the previous all-time high level underscores a robust undertone, with any dip viewed as a buying opportunity. Immediate support is placed near 7,800, aligning with the 38.2% retracement of the latest rally (6,730–8,391).
* Intraday Rational:
* Trend- Formation of higher-high-low, finding support near 20-day EMA
* Levels Buy on declines near 80% retracement of previous day(58160- 58381)
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