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Nifty : 24238

Technical Outlook

Day that was ..

• Nifty closed the session down 0.4% at 24,238 on the back of rising crude oil prices and geopolitical tensions. Despite the index drop, market breadth was positive (A/D ratio 1.2:1) as broader markets outperformed; Nifty Midcap and Smallcap indices gained 0.60% and 0.15%, respectively. Sectorally, PSU Bank, Pharma FMCG were the top gainers, while Private banks, Auto and IT underperformed. Technical Outlook :

• The Nifty 50 opened ~140 points lower, tracking subdued global cues, and oscillated within the previous session’s trading range. The daily price action resulted in an inside bar formation, highlighting a range-bound consolidation phase backed by stock-specific activity rather than a clear directional trend.

• Nifty is currently finding crucial support along a rising trendline connecting the June 11 and July 8, 2026, lows, acting as a strong line of defense. As long as the index holds above this 24,100 support, a pullback remains open. However, a decisive close below this level could trigger an extended correction can not be ruled out wherein strong support is placed in the zone of 23,800–23,600.

• Structurally, over past three months index has been oscillating in 1500 points range (24600-23100). Once again Nifty is hovering around upper band of consolidation. The resolute breakout above 24600 would trigger the next leg of upmove wherein we expect Bank-Nifty to lead the rally.

• In the process, bouts of volatility to remain elevated as we enter the Q1FY27 earning season. Hence, focus should be on accumulating stocks on dips backed by strong earnings as key support is placed around 23600 levels as it is 61.8% retracement of June-July rally (23072-24530) coinciding with the gap area seen during 15th June Following are the key monitorable which would provide cushion to the ongoing up move

• Bank Nifty is resuming uptrend after forming a higher base above its April swing high of 57500 that bodes well for extension of up move towards 60000 levels, being former gap-area created on 2nd March 2026.

• The AI/Semiconductor induced rally in North Asian markets (Kospi, Nikkei, Taiwan) is now showing sign of exhaustion, resulting into extended profit booking. Conversely, this rotation could benefit growth-oriented economies like India.

• During the Russia-Ukraine war (CY22-23) Brent crude oil corrected ~50% and subsequently staged a 34% pullback before entering into a consolidation phase. In the current scenario, we expect similar stabilization process to pan out as after May-June correction (40%), brent crude has already seen ~25% rally from recent low of $70. Stabilization of crude from hereon would eventually provide much need cushion to equities

Intraday Rational :

• Trend – Supportive efforts emerged along a 1-month rising trendline, indicating positive bias

• Levels – Buy around 80% retracement of 5 days range

Nifty Bank : 57945

Technical Outlook

Week that was : Bank Nifty remained range bound throughout the day and settled day on a positive note at 57945, down 0.98% on back of mixee global cues.

Technical Outlook :

• Despite negative opening index found supportive efforts from previous session low and 20-day EMA. Consequently, the daily price action resulted into bull candle inside previous session candle indicating consolidation.

• Amidst geopolitical uncertainty over past 5 weeks , index has been consolidating above April swing high of 57456 levels coupled with cluster of moving averages, indicating healthy consolidation and is now on verge of breakout, which would set the stage to gradually head towards swing high of 60000 in coming weeks.

• Key point to highlight is that on daily charts Index has generated golden crossover where 50-day EMA has crossed above 200-day EMA structural improvement which would gradually surpass 58700 & unlock the next leg of up move towards medium term.

• Index has seen slower pace of retracement wherein 3 weeks rally its has retraced less than 38.2% this makes us retain revise support upwards at 57300 levels being 61.8% retracement of recent up move coinciding with last weeks low.

• PSU Bank Index will challenge its recent swing high of 8800 levels and head towards 9000 levels in coming sessions.

Intraday Rational :

• Trend - Supportive efforts emerged from 20-day EMA while sustaining above the cluster of key moving averages, indicating inherent strength.

• Levels : Buy around 61.8 % retracement of current upmove (56704-58600)

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