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Argentina's grain production for MY 2024/25 shows a promising outlook despite weather challenges. Wheat production is projected at 18.1 million tons, benefiting from increased acreage and favorable conditions during key growth stages. Corn output is estimated at 49 million tons, slightly lower due to dry spells and heat stress. Barley production remains steady at 5 million tons, while sorghum and rice show potential growth due to acreage expansion and improved yields. Export dynamics play a crucial role, with Brazil being a key buyer of wheat and barley, while corn's main export markets include Vietnam and China. Domestic consumption remains stable across commodities, balancing export demands and weather-driven production adjustments.

Key Highlights

* Wheat production estimated at 18.1 million tons, higher than prior projections.

* Corn output at 49 million tons, affected by dry weather in January 2025.

* Barley production steady at 5 million tons, focusing on South American markets.

* Sorghum and rice output rise with better yields and acreage increases.

* Brazil and Vietnam continue as leading export markets for Argentine grains.

Argentina’s grain sector for marketing year (MY) 2024/25 reflects resilience amidst varying weather conditions. Wheat production is projected at 18.1 million tons, up from earlier estimates due to increased planting on 6.2 million hectares and adequate rainfall during critical growth stages. However, erratic spring weather and heat slightly impacted yields in some areas. Despite this, the quality of wheat remains high, aiding export competitiveness. Farmers are holding stocks, expecting price increases as Brazil, a key importer, gears up for purchases.

Corn production is pegged at 49 million tons, lower than the USDA's official estimate of 51 million tons. Prolonged dry spells and heat in January affected kernel development, especially for early-planted corn. However, late-planted corn, constituting 60% of the area, holds promise if rains improve. Key export markets like Vietnam and China remain active, with exports forecasted at 34 million tons.

Barley maintains steady production at 5 million tons. Erratic weather reduced yields in Buenos Aires province, but the export focus on Brazil and other South American countries remains unchanged. Sorghum and rice output are expected to grow, supported by expanded acreage and favorable climatic conditions. Sorghum exports depend heavily on Chinese demand, while rice markets include Chile, Spain, and Central America.

Export dynamics and competitive pricing shape Argentina’s global market presence. With production adjustments and strategic export policies, the country continues to navigate weather challenges and market shifts effectively.

Finally

Argentina’s grain production shows resilience despite weather hurdles. Key markets like Brazil and Vietnam drive export opportunities, stabilizing the sector amidst fluctuating yields.

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