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Gold

Gold prices declined by 0.59% to settle at Rs1,51,761, weighed down by a stronger U.S. dollar and rising crude oil prices, which have heightened inflation concerns and reduced the metal’s appeal. Market sentiment remained cautious amid stalled U.S.-Iran negotiations, with tensions persisting after Iran seized vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and no clear progress on peace talks. While the U.S. signaled an indefinite extension of the truce, uncertainty around its effectiveness kept volatility elevated. Rising energy prices have fueled expectations of tighter monetary policy, further pressuring gold. On the physical side, Swiss gold exports rose 30% month-on-month in March, driven by increased shipments to the UK and China, while supplies to India dropped sharply due to subdued demand and import restrictions. Domestic demand in India remained weak ahead of Akshaya Tritiya, as high prices discouraged retail buying, while premiums in China held steady but showed signs of softening. Central bank demand continued to provide some underlying support, with China adding 160,000 ounces to its reserves in March, marking its 17th consecutive month of purchases. Globally, central banks remained net buyers, although some countries reduced holdings to support their currencies. Meanwhile, India’s gems and jewellery exports declined to a five-year low, reflecting weaker demand from the U.S. due to tariff pressures. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest easing by 0.5% to 8,291. Immediate support is seen at Rs1,51,015, with further downside to Rs1,50,275, while resistance stands at Rs1,52,750. A move above this level could push prices toward Rs1,53,745.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 150275-153745.

* Gold prices fell pressured ‌by a stronger dollar and elevated oil prices.

* President Donald Trump said the current truce would remain in place indefinitely as Washington awaits a new peace proposal from Iran.

* US Federal Reserve to likely wait six months before interest rate cut

Silver

Silver prices declined sharply by 2.76% to settle at Rs2,41,513, as persistent geopolitical tensions and rising energy prices continued to weigh on sentiment. The ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and escalating friction between the U.S. and Iran have kept crude oil prices elevated, fueling inflation concerns and increasing expectations of tighter monetary policy—factors that typically pressure precious metals like silver. Despite the geopolitical backdrop, macroeconomic data from the U.S. remained supportive of a stronger economic outlook. Jobless claims rose slightly but stayed close to expectations, while manufacturing activity showed notable strength, with the PMI climbing to its highest level in nearly two years. This resilience in economic data has further reduced the appeal of silver as a safe-haven asset. On the demand side, China continues to provide underlying support. Imports surged to a record 836 metric tonnes in March, driven by strong retail investment demand and aggressive stockpiling by the solar (PV) sector ahead of tax changes. Elevated domestic premiums encouraged global inflows into China, with Hong Kong acting as a key transit hub. Meanwhile, London vault holdings rose 1.6% to 27,487 tonnes, indicating stable institutional positioning. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest falling by 2.71% to 5,354. Immediate support is seen at Rs2,38,420, with further downside to Rs2,35,325 if selling pressure persists. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs2,45,790, and a move above this level could trigger a recovery toward Rs2,50,065.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 235325-250065.

* Silver fell as markets continued to grapple with elevated uncertainty in the Middle East.

* The metal has faced sustained pressure since the conflict began, as surging energy prices have fueled inflation concerns.

* The number of people claiming for unemployment benefits in the US rose by 6,000 to 214,000.

Crude oil

Crude oil prices surged sharply by 5.18% to settle at Rs9,175, driven by escalating geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran and ongoing disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. With peace talks stalled and both sides maintaining aggressive positions, tanker traffic through the key route has slowed significantly. Iran’s actions to restrict movement and the U.S. blockade have tightened supply flows from major Gulf producers, adding strong upward pressure on prices. Despite the standoff, global markets have increasingly turned to U.S. supplies to offset disruptions, with export demand picking up. Inventory data, however, presented a mixed picture. U.S. crude stocks rose by 1.9 million barrels, but gasoline and distillate inventories posted larger-than-expected declines, indicating firm end-user demand. Refinery activity remained slightly lower, while net crude imports increased, reflecting ongoing adjustments in supply chains. Globally, strategic oil reserves remain substantial at around 2.5 billion barrels, primarily held by major economies such as China, the U.S., and Japan. On the demand side, OPEC has slightly lowered its second-quarter demand forecast by 500,000 barrels per day, citing temporary weakness linked to geopolitical uncertainty. However, it expects demand to recover in the second half of the year, keeping the broader outlook stable. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining by 1.35% to 12,099. Immediate support is seen at Rs8,834, with further downside to Rs8,494. Resistance is placed at Rs9,380, and a move above this level could push prices toward Rs9,586, indicating continued bullish momentum in the near term.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 8494-9586.

* Crude oil climbed as tensions between the US and Iran persisted after failed peace talks.

* US export demand has surged, supported by falling domestic fuel inventories.

* Global strategic oil inventory totaled 2.5 billion barrels at end of 2025, EIA says

Natural gas

Natural gas prices came under notable pressure, settling lower by 4.15% at 244.8, as the market reacted to robust storage builds and expectations of continued strong injections in the coming weeks. The bearish sentiment was largely driven by ample supply conditions, with inventories rising sharply. The latest data showed a hefty injection of 103 bcf for the week ended April 17, well above both market expectations of 94 bcf and the five-year average of 64 bcf. Total stockpiles have now climbed to 2.063 trillion cubic feet, standing around 7% above both last year’s levels and the seasonal average, reinforcing the oversupply narrative. Despite this weakness, losses were somewhat cushioned by a decline in production and strong LNG export flows. Output in the U.S. Lower 48 states has edged lower to around 110.3 bcfd in April, with daily production slipping nearly 3.8 bcfd over the past couple of weeks to an 11-week low. At the same time, export demand remains firm, preventing a sharper downside. However, near-term demand outlook remains soft, with forecasts pointing to a drop in consumption to around 100.5 bcfd next week amid mild weather conditions. From a broader perspective, the supply outlook remains heavy. The EIA continues to project record production levels through 2026 and beyond, while demand is expected to ease slightly before recovering in 2027. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation, reflected in a 11.56% drop in open interest alongside falling prices. Immediate support is seen at 238.5, with a break potentially testing 232.3. On the upside, resistance is placed at 254.1, and a move above this level could push prices toward 263.5.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 232.3-263.5.

* Natural gas slid on ample amounts of gas in storage and expectations of injecting more gas into storage.

* US gas storage levels seen at 7% above normal; mild weather boosts injections

* Waha Hub prices remain negative due to pipeline constraints in Permian region

Copper

Copper prices edged lower, settling down by 0.6% at 1275.45, as a stronger U.S. dollar and cautious market sentiment weighed on risk appetite. Ongoing uncertainty around Middle East peace talks, along with Iran’s move to seize vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, added to the nervous tone, keeping investors on the sidelines. On the supply side, concerns are emerging around sulphuric acid availability, a key input in copper refining. China’s exports of sulphuric acid to Chile—its largest overseas buyer—dropped sharply in March, even before an export ban takes effect in May, potentially tightening supply for refined copper production. Meanwhile, inventories on the U.S. Comex exchange surged to a record high of over 603,000 short tons, driven by arbitrage-driven inflows into the U.S. market. However, the downside was limited by improving demand signals from China. Restocking activity has picked up ahead of the Labor Day holiday, while refined copper production hit a record 1.33 million tons in March. That said, output may ease in the coming months due to seasonal maintenance. On the global front, mixed supply trends persisted, with Peru reporting a 2.9% rise in production, while Chile and key mines like Escondida saw declines. Shanghai inventories continued to fall sharply, down nearly 45% since mid-March, indicating tightening domestic availability. From a broader perspective, the global refined copper market showed a modest surplus of 17,000 tons in January, significantly narrower than December’s surplus. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation, reflected in a 16.83% drop in open interest alongside falling prices. Immediate support is seen at 1265.6, with a break potentially testing 1255.8. On the upside, resistance is placed at 1284.8, and a move above this level could push prices toward 1294.2.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1255.8-1294.2.

* Copper slid as dollar strengthened and uncertainties surrounding the Middle East peace talks.

* Copper inventories on the U.S. Comex exchange have climbed to a record high.

* Rising concerns over a lack of sulphuric acid is pointing to rising supply concerns over copper.

Zinc

Zinc prices edged slightly lower, settling down by 0.39% at 348.1, as uncertainty around the Iran ceasefire and broader geopolitical tensions weighed on market sentiment. Despite the dip, underlying fundamentals remain relatively supportive, preventing any sharp downside. On the supply front, tightening conditions continue to offer a cushion. LME inventories have dropped to 107,525 tonnes, marking a one-month low, while stocks at the Shanghai Futures Exchange have generally trended lower, reflecting tighter physical availability. Declining treatment charges (TCs) for zinc concentrate and ongoing mine disruptions have further constrained near-term supply, keeping the market sensitive to any additional shocks. At the same time, demand signals are showing signs of improvement. China’s factory activity has moved back into expansion territory, boosting expectations for base metal consumption. Additionally, producer price data showed factory-gate inflation rising for the first time in over three years, suggesting increasing cost pressures within the industrial sector. However, gains are being capped by concerns over the broader economic impact of the Middle East conflict and the potential drag on global growth. From a supply outlook perspective, the restart of Boliden’s Tara mine and ramp-up at Ivanhoe Mines’ Kipushi project are expected to keep the global zinc market in a modest surplus. Data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group showed a surplus of 9,200 tonnes in January, although narrower than previous levels. Goldman Sachs also maintains a small surplus outlook for 2026, with demand expected to grow around 2% annually. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest dropping by 14.93% alongside softer prices. Immediate support is seen at 345.9, with a break below potentially testing 343.7. On the upside, resistance is placed at 350, and a move above this level could extend gains toward 351.9.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 343.7-351.9.

* Zinc dropped as the outlook for the ceasefire and the prospect of an Iran peace deal remained uncertain.

* The global refined copper market showed a 17,000 metric tons surplus in January

* World refined zinc metal output will rise by 1.4% to 13.99 million tons in 2026 - ILZSG

Aluminium

Aluminium prices edged slightly lower, settling down by 0.15% at 372.75, as traders booked profits after the recent rally driven by supply concerns. Despite the marginal decline, the broader market tone remains firm, supported by ongoing geopolitical tensions and tightening supply dynamics. The continued blockage of the Strait of Hormuz has heightened fears of prolonged disruption to Middle Eastern aluminium supply. With Iran maintaining restrictions on shipping and reported damage to key refineries in the UAE and Bahrain, the market is facing what some analysts describe as a “black swan” supply shock. This has significantly tightened availability outside China and kept risk premiums elevated. Inventory trends further reinforce the bullish undertone. LME aluminium stocks have declined to 393,800 tonnes, while inventories at major Japanese ports dropped 7.4% month-on-month. In addition, premiums for Japanese buyers surged to $350–$353 per tonne for April–June shipments, the highest in over a decade, reflecting tight physical supply. Production in the Gulf region has also taken a hit, with output falling 6% in March, highlighting the direct impact of geopolitical disruptions. On the demand side, China continues to provide support. Imports of unwrought aluminium rose 6.9% year-on-year in March, while primary aluminium production increased 2.7% to 3.85 million tonnes. However, global supply risks appear to be outweighing the steady rise in output. Looking ahead, JP Morgan expects a significant global deficit of around 1.9 million tonnes in 2026, with prices potentially testing higher levels as supply disruptions persist. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest dropping by 14.85% alongside softer prices. Immediate support is seen at 370.9, with a break below likely to test 369.1. On the upside, resistance is placed at 374, and a move above this level could push prices toward 375.3.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 369.1-375.3.

* Aluminium dropped on profit booking after prices gained amid a prolonged disruption to Middle Eastern supply.

* The global aluminium market is already experiencing a "black swan" supply shock due to disruptions stemming from the war

* LME aluminium inventory continued to decline, with the latest level at 393,800 mt, reinforcing supply concerns.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices gained 2.23% to settle at Rs16,474, supported by tight supply conditions in key producing regions. Arrivals across major mandis in Maharashtra and Telangana have remained below normal for the peak season, creating an immediate supply squeeze. Quality concerns, particularly moisture-related issues like rhizome rot, have further reduced the availability of premium “Double Polished” turmeric. In markets such as Sangli and Nizamabad, farmers and stockists are holding back supplies, expecting prices to move toward Rs18,000 levels, while high-grade “Salem Fali” continues to command strong premiums. However, the upside is being partially capped by increased selling from farmers looking to raise cash ahead of the Kharif season, along with profit booking by traders who accumulated stocks at lower levels earlier. Despite this, overall availability remains tight, with carry-forward stocks estimated at around 15 lakh bags compared to over 20 lakh bags last year. Demand remains supportive, driven by steady export inquiries, particularly from Bangladesh, and growing interest in IPM-certified turmeric from European buyers. Export trends show some short-term softness, with January shipments declining year-on-year, but cumulative exports remain stable, indicating steady medium-term demand. Meanwhile, imports have dropped sharply, signaling reduced reliance on overseas supply. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining by 1.97% to 17,665. Immediate support is seen at Rs16,064, with further downside to Rs15,652, while resistance stands at Rs16,716. A breakout above this level could push prices toward Rs16,956, indicating continued strength.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 15652-16956.

* Turmeric gains as arrivals in Maharashtra and Telangana have remained lower than normal for this peak season

* Ongoing quality issues due to moisture in low-lying fields have reduced the availability of "Double Polished" export-quality turmeric.

* Carry-forward stocks are at roughly 15 lakh bags, down from over 20 lakh bags last season, tightening the total availability buffer.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 15933.85 Rupees gained by 0.14 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices remained largely flat, inching up by just 0.02% to settle at Rs21,170, as steady arrivals of around 28,500 bags in Unjha continued to cap any sharp upside. Despite this, underlying fundamentals still point toward tightening supply conditions. Arrivals are significantly lower on a year-on-year basis, indicating reduced availability in the spot market. Weather-related disruptions have played a major role this season. Intense heatwaves in Gujarat have impacted grain quality, leading to shriveled seeds and a drop in bold-grade output. At the same time, thunderstorms and hail in Rajasthan have damaged standing crops, raising concerns over the availability of premium “A-grade” jeera. Unseasonal rains in North-West India have also delayed post-harvest processing, creating temporary supply gaps. Additionally, the share of high-quality “Sortex” carryover stock is lower than last year, supporting premium pricing. Production estimates further highlight the tight scenario, with total output expected at around 90–92 lakh bags, significantly lower than last year’s 1.10 crore bags. Export demand, however, remains weak, with shipments declining both on a monthly and cumulative basis, limiting stronger price gains. Still, expectations of fresh buying from China are providing some support to sentiment. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest falling by 3.58% to 9,531. Immediate support is seen at Rs21,010, with further downside at Rs20,850, while resistance stands at Rs21,290. A breakout above this level could push prices toward Rs21,410.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 20850-21410.

* Jeera settled flat as steady Unjha arrivals near 28,500 bags capped upside potential

* Intense heatwaves in Gujarat during the final maturation stage have resulted in shriveled grains, reducing the supply of bold-grade Jeera.

* Outbreaks of blight disease in key Gujarat pockets have reduced the quality and quantity of the harvestable crop.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 21265.55 Rupees dropped by -0.27 percent.

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