IGI Logo

Gold

Gold prices rose by 0.99% to settle at  Rs.1,51,776, as markets reassessed geopolitical risks after U.S. President Donald Trump signaled a temporary de-escalation by agreeing to pause military action against Iran for two weeks. The move eased immediate tensions and opened the door for negotiations, providing support to bullion. At the same time, concerns over inflation remain elevated due to rising energy prices. Estimates suggest that prolonged disruptions in oil supply could push U.S. inflation above 4%, complicating the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook. Strong U.S. economic data, including solid job growth and a lower unemployment rate, has further reduced expectations of any rate cuts this year, which could limit upside in gold. On the demand side, physical buying has improved. Gold traded at a premium in India after a brief gap, while demand in China remained steady despite slightly softer premiums. Notably, the People's Bank of China continued its gold accumulation for the 17th consecutive month, highlighting strong central bank demand globally. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh buying, with rising open interest alongside higher prices indicating bullish momentum. Immediate support is seen at  Rs.1,50,535, with further downside towards  Rs.1,49,290. On the upside, resistance is placed at  Rs.1,53,980, and a move above this could push prices towards  Rs.1,56,180.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 149290-156180.

* Gold gains as markets reassessed near-term risks after U.S. President Trump agreed to suspend bombing and attacks on Iran.

* Higher inflation due to rising energy prices could complicate rate-cut decisions by central banks.

* China continued its gold-buying spree, with the People's Bank of China extending purchases for the 17th consecutive month.

Silver

Silver prices jumped sharply by 3.7% to settle at  Rs.2,39,918, as easing geopolitical tensions boosted market sentiment. The rally followed a temporary ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran, with U.S. President Donald Trump confirming a two-week pause in military action and progress toward negotiations. Iran’s commitment to keep the Strait of Hormuz open further reduced concerns over supply disruptions and energy-driven inflation. With oil prices stabilizing, investors have started to reassess interest rate expectations for 2026. The Federal Reserve is now seen holding rates steady, easing earlier fears of potential hikes. At the same time, steady improvement in the U.S. labor market, highlighted by rising private-sector hiring, continues to reflect underlying economic strength. On the supply side, silver holdings in London vaults declined by 2.4% to 27,065 tonnes, indicating some tightening in physical availability, which also supported prices. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, as falling open interest alongside rising prices signals the unwinding of bearish positions. Immediate support is seen at  Rs.2,36,510, with further downside towards  Rs.2,33,095. On the upside, resistance is placed at  Rs.2,45,000, and a move above this level could push prices towards  Rs.2,50,075.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 233095-250075.

* Silver prices rose after the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire, reducing fears of energy-driven inflation.

* Trump stated that Washington had agreed to pause attacks for two weeks and received a "workable" 10-point proposal from Iran.

* Fed is expected to maintain borrowing costs this year, reversing concerns that rising inflation could force a rate hike later this year.

Crude oil

Crude oil prices plunged sharply by 16.95% to settle at  Rs.8,861, as easing geopolitical tensions triggered a wave of selling in the market. The decline came after U.S. President Donald Trump delayed potential military action against Iran and announced a two-week ceasefire framework. Iran’s agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz temporarily, along with signs of progress in negotiations, significantly reduced immediate supply disruption fears. Adding to the bearish sentiment, U.S. crude inventories continued to rise, marking the fourth consecutive weekly build. At the same time, gasoline and distillate stocks declined, indicating mixed demand trends. OPEC+ has also announced a modest output increase for May, though its actual impact may remain limited due to ongoing logistical constraints. On the global front, supply risks still persist, with reports of drone attacks on key Russian export infrastructure and fluctuating production levels among major producers. However, the easing of geopolitical tensions has outweighed these concerns for now, leading to a sharp correction in prices. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with a steep drop in open interest alongside falling prices, indicating aggressive unwinding of bullish positions. Immediate support is seen at  Rs.8,183, with further downside towards  Rs.7,505. On the upside, resistance is placed at  Rs.9,891, and a move above this level could push prices towards  Rs.10,921.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 7505-10921.

* Crude oil plunged after President Donald Trump delayed his threat to attack Iranian civilian infrastructure by two weeks.

* US crude oil inventories jumped by 3.72 million barrels as stocks continued to climb for a fourth straight week - EIA

* US oil output fell the most in 2 years during January winter storm, EIA data shows

Natural gas

Natural gas prices dropped sharply by 5.74% to settle at  Rs.254.3, tracking the broader weakness in energy markets after a temporary ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran eased supply concerns. The agreement, which includes reopening the Strait of Hormuz, has reduced fears of disruption, putting pressure on prices. Weather outlooks are also weighing on the market, with forecasts pointing to warmer-than-normal conditions through mid-April, which is expected to reduce demand. At the same time, storage data added to the bearish tone, with inventories rising well above both last year’s levels and the five-year average following a fresh injection. On the supply side, although there was a brief dip in daily production due to declines in key regions like Louisiana and Arkansas, overall output remains strong and is expected to grow further. The U.S. Energy Information Administration continues to project record production levels in the coming years, while demand is likely to soften slightly before stabilizing. Despite some support from increased LNG exports, the broader outlook remains tilted toward ample supply and moderate demand. Technically, the market is under fresh selling pressure, with rising open interest alongside falling prices indicating the build-up of new short positions. Immediate support is seen at  Rs.251.4, with further downside towards  Rs.248.4. Resistance is placed at  Rs.259.7, and a move above this level could push prices towards  Rs.265.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 248.4-265.

* Natural gas fell tracking broader weakness across global energy markets after the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire.

* Additional pressure came from forecasts pointing to milder weather and weaker demand over the next two weeks.

* U.S. natural gas output will rise to a record high in 2026, while demand will decline – EIA

Copper

Copper prices rose by 2.43% to settle at  Rs.1,187.75, supported by improved market sentiment after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran. The move eased concerns about a prolonged Middle East conflict and its potential impact on global economic growth, lending support to industrial metals. However, underlying fundamentals remain mixed. Ample supply continues to weigh on the market, with LME inventories climbing to their highest level since 2018, indicating no immediate shortage of metal. Additionally, major Chinese smelters are expected to maintain or even increase output in 2026, despite earlier plans to cut production. On the other hand, falling inventories on the Shanghai Futures Exchange and declining output from Chile point to pockets of tightening supply, especially ahead of China’s peak demand season. Global outlook remains cautious, with institutions like Goldman Sachs and Citi projecting a surplus market and potential downside in prices due to macroeconomic uncertainties. Trade data also reflects softer demand, with China’s refined copper imports declining, although concentrate imports have increased. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh buying, with a rise in open interest alongside higher prices indicating strengthening momentum. Immediate support is seen at  Rs.1,173.3, with further downside towards  Rs.1,158.7. On the upside, resistance is placed at  Rs.1,196.1, and a move above this could push prices towards  Rs.1,204.3.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1158.7-1204.3.

* Copper jumped after U.S. President agreed to a two-week ceasefire with Iran, easing fears of a global economic slowdown.

* The cash LME copper contract's discount to the three-month forward widened to $89.50 a ton from $84.60, implying there is no shortage.

* Copper stocks in LME-approved warehouses stood at 385,275 tons, the highest level since March 2018

Zinc

Zinc prices edged slightly lower by 0.15% to settle at  Rs.328.5, as broader weakness across industrial metals weighed on sentiment amid concerns over the global economic impact of the Iran conflict. However, losses were limited after a temporary ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran eased fears of further escalation. U.S. President Donald Trump announced a two-week pause in military action, with Iran agreeing to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, helping stabilize market sentiment. Fundamentally, the market continues to draw support from improving demand signals and tight near-term supply. China’s factory activity has returned to expansion, boosting expectations for industrial demand. At the same time, declining inventories on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, along with ongoing mine disruptions and operational delays, are keeping supply constrained. However, the broader outlook remains balanced. The global zinc market has shifted into a modest surplus, with rising mine output expected to meet steady demand growth. Production increases from key projects and improved output from major producers may limit further upside in prices. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with a slight drop in open interest alongside softer prices. Immediate support is seen at  Rs.326.5, with further downside towards  Rs.324.4. On the upside, resistance is placed at  Rs.332, and a move above this level could push prices towards  Rs.335.4.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 324.4-335.4.

* Zinc dropped amid growing worries about the global economic impact of the war in Iran fueled broad losses across industrial metals markets.

* China’s factory activity returned to expansion in March, lifting demand expectations.

# Supply-side constraints, including low stockpiles and disruptions caused by mine closures and operational delays, also underpinned prices.

Aluminium

Aluminium prices slipped slightly by 0.25% to settle at  Rs.354.85, as rising inventories in China weighed on market sentiment. Stocks in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses have been steadily increasing, reaching near six-year highs, which signals softer demand and cautious buying amid recent price volatility. At the same time, the global supply picture remains mixed. On one hand, short-term tightness is evident, with LME cash premiums surging to multi-year highs and warehouse inventories declining, indicating strong demand for immediate delivery. Supply concerns have been amplified after disruptions at UAE-based Emirates Global Aluminium, where full restoration of its Al Taweelah smelter could take up to a year following recent damage. However, this tightness is being offset by broader supply growth. China has ramped up production, and global output continues to rise modestly. Meanwhile, high overall inventory levels and cautious buying from consumers are limiting upside momentum. Additional factors, such as operational changes at global smelters and fluctuating import trends, are adding complexity to the outlook. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest declining alongside prices. Immediate support is seen at  Rs.352.5, with further downside towards  Rs.350. On the upside, resistance is placed at  Rs.358.2, and a move above this level could push prices towards  Rs.361.4.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 350-361.4.

* Aluminium dropped as shanghai warehouse aluminium stocks approach six – year high

* China's aluminium exports now poised to grow, with some earlier forecasts for flat shipments revised sharply higher.

* Premium for LME cash aluminium contract over 3-M contract was last at $81 a ton, its highest since 2007.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices surged sharply by 4.11% to settle at  Rs.16,886, driven mainly by lower-than-normal arrivals in key mandis. Farmers and stockists are holding back supplies in anticipation of better prices, which has tightened availability in the spot market. Unseasonal rains and disease pressure in major producing regions like Maharashtra and Telangana have further impacted crop yields, adding to supply concerns. Although overall production is still estimated to be higher than last year at around 90 lakh bags, the increase is limited due to localized crop damage and lower carry-forward stocks. Yield losses of 15–20% in some areas have offset the benefits of higher acreage. At the same time, quality issues such as rhizome rot and aflatoxin risks in low-lying regions are also affecting supply of export-grade material. Demand remains supportive, both domestically and internationally, with steady export interest from Europe and the U.S. Despite some short-term decline in monthly export figures, cumulative exports remain stable, while imports have dropped significantly, indicating reduced reliance on overseas supply. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with a sharp decline in open interest alongside rising prices. Immediate support is seen at  Rs.16,540, with further downside towards  Rs.16,194. On the upside, resistance is placed at  Rs.17,090, and a move above this level could push prices towards  Rs.17,294.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 16194-17294.

* Turmeric prices gained amid lower-than-normal arrivals of the new crop in major physical markets.

* Farmers and stockists are reportedly holding back their produce, anticipating even higher prices in the coming weeks.

* Unseasonal rainfall in late 2025/early 2026 caused localized damage to about 15% of the crop area.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 16274.15 Rupees gained by 1.61 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices edged higher by 0.52% to settle at  Rs.22,400, supported mainly by weather concerns in key producing regions. Rising temperature alerts in North Gujarat have raised fears of heatwaves, which could impact seed development in late-sown crops and further trim yields. Production is already expected to decline by around 5% this year, with Gujarat seeing a sharp drop due to lower acreage and weaker yields. However, gains remain capped as fresh crop arrivals have started entering the market and are expected to pick up pace in the coming weeks. Comfortable supply levels and weak export demand are also weighing on sentiment. Sowing in Gujarat has been notably slow, down over 14% year-on-year, while Rajasthan is likely to offset some of the losses with higher output supported by better yields. On the demand side, premium-quality cumin continues to see steady buying, but overall export performance remains under pressure. Shipments have declined significantly both on a monthly and cumulative basis, reflecting subdued global demand and ongoing geopolitical disruptions affecting trade flows. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with a sharp drop in open interest alongside rising prices. Immediate support is seen at  Rs.22,170, with further downside towards  Rs.21,930. On the upside, resistance is placed at  Rs.22,760, and a move above this level could push prices towards  Rs.23,110.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 21930-23110.

* Jeera gained as India Meteorological Department has issued alerts for rising temperatures in North Gujarat.

* Severe heatwaves could impact the seed weight of the late-sown Jeera crop, potentially reducing final yield numbers even further from current estimates.

* Production is expected to decline by approximately 5 percent to 5.13 lakh tonnes this year.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 22420.45 Rupees dropped by -0.11 percent.

Views express by all participants are for information & academic purpose only. Kindly read disclaimer before referring below views