Agri Commodity Technical Report 29 November 2023 - Geojit Financial Services Ltd
MARKET NEWS/UPDATES
* A low pressure area over south Andaman Sea is likely to turn into a depression over the southeast Bay of Bengal around Thursday and may further intensify into a cyclonic storm over southeast and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal during the subsequent 48 hours, the India Meteorological Department said in a release today.According to private weather forecaster Skymet, the cyclonic storm will be named Michaung (pronounced as Migjaum). The coastline from Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Odisha to West Bengal and Bangladesh will be at risk due to the cyclone, according to the weather agency. Heavy rainfall is likely over some places in the Nicobar Islands during Wed-Fri, the India Meteorological Department said. The weather bureau said strong winds are likely to prevail over Andaman Sea and Andaman and Nicobar Islands during the next few days. Most parts of the Bay of Bengal are also likely to experience strong winds for the rest of the week due to the development of a cyclonic storm in the region, according to the bureau. Winds in southeast Bay of Bengal are likely to reach speeds of up to 80 km per hour on Saturday, while in central Bay of Bengal they may reach up to 70 km per hour, the bureau said. Additionally, rough to very rough sea conditions are expected over southeast Bay of Bengal on Thursday and Friday, and very rough to high sea conditions are likely on Saturday. Southwest and adjoining central Bay of Bengal are also likely to experience rough to very rough sea conditions on Fri-Sat, the agency said. Fishermen are advised not to venture the Andaman Sea and Bay of Bengal on the above-mentioned days, it said.
* Soybean crushing in the oil year 2023-24 (Oct-Sep) as of Nov 1 was at 1.15 mln tn, up 21% on year from 950,000 tn, according to the estimates released by the Soybean Processors Association of India on Monday.The soybean crushing data was supported by the increased market arrivals in October, which were at 2 mln tn, up 18% on-year from 1.7 mln tn, according to SOPA's estimates.In the oil year 2023-24, soybean production is estimated at 11.9 mln tn, down from 12.4 mln tn in the previous year. Imports of soybean during the same period are estimated to dip 29% on-year to 500,000 tn from 703,000 tn, according to SOPA. Exports of soybean during the current oil year are expected to marginally rise to 25,000 tn from 22,000 tn in 2022-23. Soybean available for crushing in 2023-24 is expected to rise to 12 mln tn from 11.5 mln tn last year, SOPA said. Total stocks of soybean available at plants or with traders and farmers at the start of October were at 11.8 mln tn.In oil year 2023-24, the production of soymeal is estimated higher at 9.5 mln tn from 9.2 mln tn last year. Soymeal production in October rose 20% to 907,000 tn on-year from 758,000 tn, according to SOPA. During 2023-24, soymeal exports through sea and land are estimated to fall slightly to 1.80 mln tn from 1.83 mln tn. But it almost doubled in October to 100,000 tn from 49,000 tn a year ago, SOPA said. The domestic demand for soymeal in the food sector during the current oil year is expected to remain steady at 800,000 tn, whereas demand in the feed sector is seen rising slightly on-year to 6.8 mln tn from 6.7 mln tn, SOPA said. The total stocks of soymeal available in October were at 199,000 tn. Soybean is a crucial kharif oilseed crop and accounts for around 30% of India's oilseed basket.
* The area under rabi crops in Maharashtra has fallen nearly 18% on year to 2.51 mln ha in the current season as of Friday from 3.06 mln ha a year ago, according to data published by the state agriculture department. So far, 47% of the average rabi crop area of 5.4 mln ha in the state has been covered. Wheat, a key rabi crop, was sown across 199,889 ha, down from 365,574 ha a year ago. The area under jowar fell nearly 3% on year to 962,666 ha. The total area covered under cereals also fell 15% on year to 1.3 mln ha.The sowing of rabi crops in the state is in the final stage. Rabi jowar, gram, wheat, maize, and safflower are currently ongoing. The sown rabi crops are in stages of germination, growth and development, the report said.Thane, Palghar, Yavatmal, and Gadchiroli districts have covered over 100% of the targeted area for the season.Raigad, Ratnagiri, Sindhudurg, Dhule, Nandurbar, Jalgaon, Ahmednagar, Chhatrapati Sambhaji Nagar, Nanded, Hingoli, Buldhana, Washim, Wardha, Nagpur, Bhandara, Gondia, and Chandrapur districts covered 75-100% of the targeted area for the 2023-24 rabi season. About 1,293 ha of crops and fruits were impacted by unseasonal and untimely rainfall. The area under pulses was 1.2 mln ha, down from 1.5 mln ha a year ago. Among pulses, acreage of gram fell 21% on year to 1.17 mln ha, data showed. The total area under food grains was 2.5 mln ha, down from 3.0 mln ha from a year ago, the data showed. Oilseed acreage rose to 27,473 ha from 26,317 ha a year ago, according to the report. Safflower was sown across 23,724 ha, up from 18,706 ha a year ago. However, sunflower acreage fell to 419 ha from 1,612 ha last year.
* The area under rabi crops in Rajasthan was down 12% on year at 7.97 mln ha in the current season as of Friday, according to a release by the state agriculture department.The state has set a target of 11.72 mln ha for this season and so far, 68% of the target area has been covered. Mustard, the key cash crop grown in the state, was sown over 3.4 mln ha, down 6.53% from a year ago. The state has set a target of 4.10 mln ha for mustard this season, down 9.9% from 4.55 mln ha sown last year. The area under oilseeds was at 3.5 mln ha, down from 3.72 mln ha a year ago. The target for the current season has been set at 4.36 mln ha, lower than last year's area of 4.70 mln ha.The acreage of gram, also known as chana, was down 15.0% on year at 1.64 mln ha.The target for area under the crop has been set at 2.10 mln ha, up 8.4% from 1.94 mln ha in the last rabi season. The total area under rabi pulses was 1.67 mln ha, down 14.3% from a year ago.The target for pulses for this season has been set at 2.14 mln ha, up 8.5% on year.Sowing of wheat, the major foodgrain in the state, was at 1.44 mln ha, down 25.7% from 1.9 mln ha a year ago as of Friday.The acreage of rabi cereals was down 25.35% on year at 1.66 mln ha.
TECHNICAL LEVELS
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