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2026-07-30 12:59:33 pm | Source: Emkay Global Financial Services
Add Bajaj Housing Finance Ltd for the Target Rs 90 by Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd
Add Bajaj Housing Finance Ltd for the Target Rs 90 by Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd

BHFL reported a good quarter, driven by record disbursements and healthy profitability. AUM reached ~Rs1.5trn, growing 24% yoy, supported by robust disbursements of ~Rs195bn and easing BT-out pressure. Asset quality remained robust, with GNPA at 0.29%, while portfolio assignment (Rs23bn) kept credit costs exceptionally low, at 5bps. NIM compressed slightly (~14bps) as older high-yield loans were replaced with lower-yield new loans. The management expects a total of 20-25bps margin compression in FY27 compared to FY26. With operating efficiency steadily improving (opex-to-NTI at 19.6%) and a strong capital adequacy ratio of 21.59%, the company remains well-positioned to deliver its 21-23% AUM growth guidance, along with a healthy ROA of 2.1–2.3% and ROE of 12.5–13.0% for FY27. Factoring in the 1Q performance and management commentary, we marginally adjust our estimates while leaving our core earnings estimates largely unchanged. We maintain ADD and Jun-27E TP of Rs90, implying an FY28E PBV of 2.6x.

Healthy growth and profitability, backed by strong asset quality

BHFL reported healthy 1QFY27 results, with disbursements up 33% yoy (Rs195.09bn) and PAT growing 23% yoy to Rs7.15bn; these translated to an annualized ROA of 2.3% and ROE of 12.5%. AUM grew 24% yoy to Rs1,496bn, aided by some moderation in BTout pressure. Reported gross spread remained flat at 1.7% (with NIM compressing by 14bps sequentially to 3.7%), supported by a 7bps sequential decline in COF to 7.2%. Opex-to-NTI stood at 19.6%, declining from 21.2% in 1QFY26, while annualized credit costs stood at 5bps. On the asset quality front, GNPA stood at 0.29% and NNPA at 0.12%, alongside a Stage-3 PCR of 58.53%.

Reiterates growth and profitability guidance

The management maintains its 21-23% AUM growth target, supported by the scale-up of the Sambhav housing business (monthly disbursement target of ~Rs6bn) and a strategic shift in the Prime-to-Sambhav mix from the current 84:16 to 80:20 by yearend. While balance BT-out pressures eased in 1Q, the management would watch if this trend sustains, before upgrading growth expectations. Margins are expected to moderate by 20-25bps in FY27 as older high-yielding loans are replaced, though this will be partially supported by a downward bias in funding costs and the growing share of the higher-yield Sambhav portfolio (where affordable HL makes up 33-36% of the mix). Further, the continued rollout of AI and digital tools will improve operational efficiency, helping to keep the opex-to-net income ratio steady at 19-20%. With credit costs expected to stay well-contained at 10-15bps and GNPA at 30-35bps, the company is focused on delivering profitable growth, targeting a healthy ROA of 2.1-2.3% and ROE of 12.5-13.0% as leverage gradually inches up (~6.1x by FY27 exit).

Marginally adjust estimates; maintain ADD and Jun-27E TP of Rs90

Considering the 1QFY27 developments and management commentary, we largely retain our core estimates for FY28-29E (Exhibit 2). We maintain ADD and Jun-27E TP of Rs90, implying an FY28E PBV of 2.6x.

 

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