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The exit poll survey conducted by ABP News and CVoter projects a decisive victory for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, predicting 353 to 383 seats for it out of the total 543. The figures show the BJP-led NDA is poised to form a government with a full majority for the third consecutive time.

This projection misses the ambitious 400-seat mark, the target that the ruling alliance had set for itself, but the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) alone is predicted to win 315 seats, up from its 2019 tally of 303.

This comprehensive exit poll survey provides an insightful projection of the upcoming Lok Sabha elections verdict, to be declared on June 4, indicating a robust performance by the NDA across various states and regions.

In contrast, the ABP News-CVoter exit poll figures show the I.N.D.I.A, despite the concerted effort of numerous parties uniting to challenge the BJP-led NDA, appears to have fallen significantly short of its goal. The data reveals the alliance appears to have failed to secure a foothold in key states like Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Madhya Pradesh. Strong local leaders, such as Mamata Banerjee and Jagan Mohan Reddy, also seem to have failed to secure their turf. The results underscore the Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led NDA's continued dominance.

In terms of vote percentage, the NDA is projected to receive 45.3%, and the I.N.D.I.A bloc 39.9%. The exit polls suggest that while the BJP alone may win 315 seats, its alliance partners will secure 53 seats. The Congress, meanwhile, is expected to win 74 seats, up from 52 in 2019, with its alliance partners adding 19 more seats to the I.N.D.I.A tally. Parties not fully aligned with the I.N.D.I.A bloc are expected to secure 74 seats. Interestingly, there is a 5.4% difference in the vote share between NDA and I.N.D.I.A, translating into a difference of 201 seats.

A Big Southern Gain Likely For NDA

A notable gain for the NDA is anticipated in Andhra Pradesh, where the BJP, in alliance with Chandrababu Naidu’s Telugu Desam Party (TDP), is projected to win 21-25 seats. This would leave the YSR Congress Party (YSRCP), which won 22 seats in 2019 and currently rules the state, with only 0-4 seats. In Karnataka, the NDA appears stable, with predictions showing the alliance retaining its strength by winning 23-25 seats.

In the other states in the South, the I.N.D.I.A bloc seems to be leading. Data from the ABP News-CVoter exit polls indicates that the NDA may open its account in Kerala by securing 1-3 seats. Tamil Nadu is likely to remain with the I.N.D.I.A bloc, which is projected to win 37-29 seats. Telangana's 17 seats are expected to be evenly split between the two alliances, similar to the 2019 results, with the ABP News-CVoter exit polls predicting 7-9 seats each for both, and one seat potentially going to the AIMIM, represented by Asaduddin Owaisi from Hyderabad.

In Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, the NDA is expected to maintain its stronghold with projected wins of 21-23 and 26-28 seats, respectively, closely matching its 2019 results. Gujarat, with its 26 seats, is also expected to largely remain with the NDA, though there might be a slight loss of one seat.

The NDA is showing a strong presence in Sikkim, and other Northeastern states, according to the exit poll data, which is projecting 10-12 seats for the alliance in Assam against I.N.D.I.A’s tally of 2-4 seats.

Big States

A significant attention is on Maharashtra's 48 seats, where the exit polls indicate a major setback for the NDA. The ABP News-CVoter survey suggests the NDA's tally could drop to 22-26 seats, down from 41 in 2019, when the BJP and Shiv Sena contested together. The BJP's individual tally in 2019 was 23 seats, which may decrease to 16-18 this time.

However, the NDA's losses in Maharashtra could be offset by gains in West Bengal and Odisha. According to the exit polls, Mamata Banerjee in West Bengal and Naveen Patnaik in Odisha are suffering significant defeats in direct contests against the BJP.

In West Bengal, the NDA is expected to increase its 2019 tally of 18 seats to 23-27 seats. Similarly, in Odisha, the exit poll predicts a big improvement for the NDA, with an estimated 17-19 seats, up from 8 in 2019.

In Bihar, out of the 40 seats, the NDA is projected to win 34-38 seats according to the ABP News-CVoter exit polls, reflecting a strong hold similar to its near-complete sweep — 39 out of 40 in 2019.

In Delhi, the ABP News-CVoter exit poll survey projects a closely contested battle, with the NDA tally predicted to come down. I.N.D.I.A is expected to secure 1-3 seats, against the NDA’s projected range of 4-6 seats — down from a clean sweep of 7-0 in 2019 and 2014. In Haryana too, the forecast is of a dip in the tally for the NDA, which had won all 10 seats in 2019. It is likely to win 4-6 seats this time.

Small States and Union Territories

In Goa, which has two seats, both the NDA and the I.N.D.I.A are expected to win one seat each. The NDA is projected to secure victories In the UTs of Andaman and Nicobar Islands, Chandigarh, Dadra and Nagar Haveli, and Daman and Diu. I.N.D.I.A, on the other hand, is likely to take Lakshadweep and Puducherry.

Exit polls provide an indication of potential outcomes, but they are not definitive. Exit polls are projections based on surveys and statistical models, and the actual results of the election may differ from these predictions as they depend on the official counting of votes.

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