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Gold

Gold yesterday settled up by 0.14% at 51096 rebounding from recent losses, as the dollar turned weak. Concerns about growth contributed as well to increased demand for the safe-haven yellow metal. A better-than-expected US jobs report on Friday cemented such view, while markets look ahead to US inflation data, FOMC minutes on Wednesday and more appearances from Fed officials this week for more clues. Meanwhile, Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard stressed the need for restrictive monetary policy to bring down inflation, but said that Fed decisions will be guided by incoming data as the full effect of previous rate increases become apparent. Markets were also kept on edge after the IMF and World Bank warned of a growing risk of a global recession, as advanced economies slow while persistent inflation keeps the pressure on major central banks to raise interest rates further. Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester said she believes the U.S. unemployment rate will likely rise a little bit as the Fed raises rates, but that won't stop the central bank from pursuing "job one" of fighting inflation. Physical gold prices flipped to a discount in India as elevated local rates amid a dive in the rupee dampened festive demand, with higher prices playing spoilsport across other Asian hubs as well. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -1.89% to settle at 16675 while prices are up 73 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 50798 and below same could see a test of 50500 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 51306, a move above could see prices testing 51516.

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 50500-51516.
* Gold prices surged higher on, rebounding from recent losses, as the dollar turned weak.
* Concerns about growth contributed as well to increased demand for the safe-haven yellow metal.
* Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard stressed the need for restrictive monetary policy to bring down inflation

Silver

Silver yesterday settled down by -0.96% at 58535 tracking the downturn in US Treasury notes as bets of an increasingly hawkish Federal Reserve continue to hurt demand of non-interest-baring bullion investments. Hopes that the US central bank could ease the pace of incoming rate hikes were erased after the jobs report for September was stronger than expected, followed by remarks from Fed policymakers stressing the need to bring inflation down. ECB board members also continued to flag the necessity of restrictive borrowing costs, stating that inflation is currently underestimated by markets and could persist until 2025. Further insights on the progress of the fight against unsustainable price growth will come with September’s US CPI report later this week. Chicago Fed president Charles Evans said there is a strong consensus at the Federal Reserve to raise the target policy rate to around 4.5 percent by February and hold it there for most of 2023. Separately, Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard laid out a case for exercising caution, saying that previous rate increases were starting to slow the economy and the full brunt of tighter policy would not be felt for months to come. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 8.84% to settle at 15921 while prices are down -567 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 58082 and below same could see a test of 57630 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 58923, a move above could see prices testing 59312.

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 57630-59312.
* Silver prices fell as bets of an increasingly hawkish Federal Reserve continue to hurt demand.
* Fed’s Evans said there is a strong consensus at Fed to raise the target policy rate to around 4.5 percent by February and hold it there for most of 2023
* Fed’s Brainard laid out a case for exercising caution, saying that previous rate increases were starting to slow the economy


Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled down by -3.03% at 7367 as recession fears and a flare-up in COVID-19 cases in China raised concerns over global demand. World Bank President David Malpass and International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva warned of a growing risk of global recession and said that inflation remains a continuing problem. Demand for U.S. crude and petroleum products fell 428,000 barrels per day (bpd) in July to 20.3 million bpd from a 34-month high in June, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration Petroleum Supply Monthly report. U.S. shipments of crude oil via rail in July fell by 102,000 barrels per day (bpd) from the previous month to 219,000 bpd, according to data released Friday by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Shipments within the United States in July fell by 88,000 barrels per day (bpd) from the previous month to 110,000 bpd, while shipments from Canada to the United states fell by 15,000 barrels per day (bpd) from the previous month to 109,000 bpd. The decision by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies last week to cut oil production has spurred a flurry of activity in the options market - but with more U.S. bettors opting for a bearish stance, data from CME Group showed. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -35.51% to settle at 5951 while prices are down -230 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 7266 and below same could see a test of 7165 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7484, a move above could see prices testing 7601.

Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 7165-7601.
* Crude oil falls on recession and China COVID fears
* World Bank and IMF see rising risks of global recession
* OPEC cut spurs U.S. hedging - but against lower oil prices

Nat.Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 0.7% at 545.9 on forecasts for higher gas demand over the next two weeks than previously expected, and renewed concerns about a possible rail strike. The EIA reported the largest on record increases in domestic inventories, with US utilities adding 129 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas to storage in the week ended September 30th, above market expectations of a 113 bcf build. Meanwhile, average gas output in the US Lower 48 states rose to 100.1 bcfd so far in October from a record 99.4 bcfd in September, according to Refinitiv. Also, weighing on gas prices was a drop in demand from power outages due to Hurricane Ian and reduced LNG exports. Data provider Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would rise from 90.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) last week to 92.3 bcfd this week, and to 95.4 bcfd next week. The average amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants fell to 10.8 bcfd so far in October from 11.5 bcfd in September. That compares with a monthly record of 12.9 bcfd in March. The seven big U.S. export plants can turn about 13.8 bcfd of gas into LNG. Russia, the world's second-biggest gas producer, has provided about a third of Europe's gas in recent years, totaling about 18.3 bcfd in 2021. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -6.98% to settle at 7539 while prices are up 3.8 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 531.5 and below same could see a test of 517 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 555.2, a move above could see prices testing 564.4.

Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 517-564.4.
* Natural gas rose on forecasts for higher gas demand over the next two weeks than previously expected, and renewed concerns about a possible rail strike.
* Also, weighing on gas prices was a drop in demand from power outages due to reduced LNG exports.
* Average gas output in the US Lower 48 states rose to 100.1 bcfd so far in October from a record 99.4 bcfd in September



Copper

Copper yesterday settled down by -0.14% at 656.1 down from a rallying dollar and Treasury yields amid expectations that the US Federal Reserve will continue to aggressively raise interest rates. Those moves came on the heels of stronger-than-expected US jobs data on Friday, while US inflation data due on Thursday is expected to show price pressures remain elevated. The metal was also pressured by global recession fears, with the IMF and World Bank warning of growing risks of a global slowdown. Meanwhile, copper gained nearly 2% on Monday following reports that top producer Chile permanently closed mining stopes connected to the giant sinkhole that appeared in the northern part of the country in July. Peru's copper production fell 1.5% year-on-year in August, the second consecutive monthly drop, due largely to lower activity from several mines controlled by Freeport-McMoRan Corp and Grupo Mexico , according to government data. Copper output in the world's second largest copper producer reached 207,739 tonnes in August. Production recovered in June from the major Las Bambas mine controlled by China's MMG Ltd following the restart of operations after a truce reached with protesting communities that had prompted a temporary closure. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -1.93% to settle at 4939 while prices are down -0.9 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 649.5 and below same could see a test of 642.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 661.2, a move above could see prices testing 666.1.

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 642.7-666.1.
* Copper eases on fed rate hike worries
* The metal was also pressured by global recession fears, with the IMF and World Bank warning of growing risks of a global slowdown.
* Chile permanently closed mining stopes connected to the giant sinkhole that appeared in the northern part of the country in July


Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled down by -1.42% at 271.35 on profit booking amid a chorus of hawkish Federal Reserve speakers buoyed the dollar. Several Fed officials reinforced the view that the central bank was nowhere near done with its hiking cycle, fanning worries about a recession that could dampen demand for metals. Concerns over top consumer China's economy will also keep the metal under pressure until the government eases its strict COVID-19 restrictions. Glencore said it would place its Nordenham smelter in Germany on care and maintenance from Nov. 1, and the LME restricted new deliveries from a Russian mining company. Foreign exchange reserves in China declined by $26 billion to $3.029 trillion in September of 2022, the lowest since March of 2017 and compared to market forecasts of $3 trillion. It was the second straight month of decreases mainly due to general dollar strength on expectations the Federal Reserve will continue aggressive policy tightening and global recession fears. The global zinc market moved to a deficit of 72,800 tonnes in July from a surplus of 34,600 tonnes a month earlier, data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) showed. Previously, the ILZSG had reported a deficit of 1,400 tonnes in June. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 8.94% to settle at 2071 while prices are down -3.9 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 268.5 and below same could see a test of 265.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 274.9, a move above could see prices testing 278.5.
Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 265.7-278.5.
* Zinc prices dropped on profit booking amid a chorus of hawkish Federal Reserve speakers buoyed the dollar.
* Several Fed officials reinforced the view that the central bank was nowhere near done with its hiking cycle, fanning worries about a recession
* Concerns over top consumer China's economy will also keep the metal under pressure until the government eases its strict COVID-19 restrictions.


Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -0.77% at 199.35 as concerns about an economic recession and manufacturing slowdown took a front seat. Alcoa, the largest US aluminum producer, has recently warned investors that high energy and raw material costs and a fall in aluminum prices are putting pressure on margins. Century Aluminum, the second largest domestic producer, announced in June that it would close one of its US plants and lay off over 600 workers due to rising energy costs. Putting a floor under prices were fears of further supply disruptions after the London Metal Exchange said it would restrict new supplies of Russian metal. Foreign exchange reserves in China declined by $26 billion to $3.029 trillion in September of 2022, the lowest since March of 2017 and compared to market forecasts of $3 trillion. It was the second straight month of decreases mainly due to general dollar strength on expectations the Federal Reserve will continue aggressive policy tightening and global recession fears. The premium for aluminium shipments to Japanese buyers for October to December was set at $99 a tonne, down 33% from the previous quarter, reflecting weak demand and ample inventories. The figure is lower than the $148 per tonne paid in the July-September quarter and marks a fourth consecutive quarterly drop. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -9.86% to settle at 3519 while prices are down -1.55 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 196.4 and below same could see a test of 193.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 201.8, a move above could see prices testing 204.1.

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 193.3-204.1.
* Aluminum dropped as concerns about an economic recession and manufacturing slowdown took a front seat.
* Alcoa, has recently warned investors that high energy and raw material costs and a fall in aluminum prices are putting pressure on margins.
* Putting a floor under prices were fears of further supply disruptions after LME said it would restrict new supplies of Russian metal.



Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -0.51% at 983.4 as Synthetic Mentha supply remains uninterrupted. However, downside seen limited amid low production this season and improving demand post-pandemic. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year we forecast production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. Mentha exports during Apr-July 2022 has dropped by 19.63 percent at 648.49 tonnes as compared to 806.87 tonnes exported during Apr-July 2021. In the month of July 2022 around 155.04 tonnes Mentha was exported as against 113.33 tonnes in June 2022 showing a rise of 36.80. In the month of July 2022 around 155.04 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 283.33 tonnes in July 2021 showing a decline of over 45.28%. In the month of June 2022 around 113.33 tonnes Mentha was exported as against 209.90 tonnes in May 2022 showing a drop of 46%. In Spot market, support seen after IMD issues Yellow Alert in key sowing area ; light-moderate rain to continue till Sept 4 impacting arrival in the mandi. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained by 14.8 Rupees to end at 1141.4 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 0.45% to settle at 1352 while prices are down -5 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 978.5 and below same could see a test of 973.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 989.6, a move above could see prices testing 995.9.

Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 973.7-995.9.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained  by 14.8 Rupees to end at 1141.4 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil dropped as Synthetic Mentha supply remains uninterrupted.
* However, downside seen limited amid low production this season and improving demand post-pandemic.
* In the month of July 2022 around 155.04 tonnes Mentha was exported as against 113.33 tonnes in June 2022 showing a rise of 36.80.


Turmeric 
Turmeric yesterday settled up by 1.05% at 7294 on low level buying on expectation of rise in festival demand amidst dwindling supplies in the market. Slower pace of arrivals amid active buying by local trader is likely to keep market sentiments up for turmeric. Arrivals has been dropped by 26% Y-o-Y due to lower production as about 11248 tonnes of turmeric arrived at APMC mandies across India in Sep’22 compared to 15758 tonnes of previous year for corresponding month. As per estimates, Turmeric all India sowing area for 2022 is estimated at 1.70 lakh hectares as compared to last year 1.66 lakh hectares, up by 2.44%. In Maharashtra, sowing area likely to go up as Turmeric spot prices were higher during the time of sowing compared to last year same period. Turmeric exports during Apr-July 2022 has rose by 17.72 percent at 62,245.73 tonnes as compared to 52,875.44 tonnes exported during Apr-July 2021. In the month of July 2022 around 12,810.36 tonnes turmeric was exported as against 18,532.00 tonnes in June 2022 showing a drop of 30.87%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. The Spices Board has pegged turmeric production at 1.33 mln tn, up 18.4% on year. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7102.7 Rupees dropped -20.3 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 7.21% to settle at 9515 while prices are up 76 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7170 and below same could see a test of 7044 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7386, a move above could see prices testing 7476.

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 7044-7476.
* Turmeric rose on low level buying on expectation of rise in festival demand amidst dwindling supplies in the market.
* Marathwada region has been serving as a round-the-year supply centre for Turmeric since past couple of years.
* In the month of July 2022 around 12,810.36 tonnes turmeric was exported as against 18,532.00 tonnes in June 2022 showing a drop of 30.87%.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7102.7 Rupees dropped -20.3 Rupees.


Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled down by -1.29% at 24405 on profit booking after prices rose as supply was observed to be less as farmers and stockists were holding stocks in expectations of higher prices in coming months. Arrivals also observed to be less during the month. Mandi arrivals of Jeera, at all-India level decreased by 10% as compared with previous month supported by decrease in arrivals in Rajasthan as well as in Gujarat. Jeera exports during Apr-July 2022 has dropped by 37.28 percent at 67,057.16 tonnes as compared to 1,06 ,929.72 tonnes exported during Apr-July 2021. In the month of July 2022 around 19,866.18 tonnes jeera was exported as against 21,587.63 tonnes in June 2022 showing a drop of 7.97%. In the month of July 2022 around 19,866.18 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 24,167.64 tonnes in June 2021 showing a decrease of 17.80%. In the month of June 2022 around 21,587.63 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 30,989.86 tonnes in June 2021 showing a decrease of 30.34%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. Jeera production was seen at 725,651 tn, down 8.8% on year due to lower acreage in Rajasthan and Gujarat, the key producer, according to data from Spices Board India. According to fourth advanced estimates by Gujarat government, jeera production is seen fall by 44.5 per cent to 221500 tonnes in 2021-22 on yoy basis In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -144.15 Rupees to end at 24276.9 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 10.04% to settle at 4965 while prices are down -320 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 24235 and below same could see a test of 24065 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 24660, a move above could see prices testing 24915.

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 24065-24915.
* Jeera dropped on profit booking after prices seen supported as supply was less as farmers and stockists were holding stocks
* Mandi arrivals of Jeera, at all-India level decreased by 10% as compared with previous month
* All-India Jeera production is expected to fall in the Marketing year 2022-23 by around 33% to 3 lakh tonnes on y-o-y basis due to lower sowings.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -144.15 Rupees to end at 24276.9 Rupees per 100 kg.


Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled down by -1.24% at 34230 as worries of an imminent recession dampened demand for the natural fiber crop. However downside seen limited as crops remain threatened due to adverse weather conditions and pest attacks in major growing regions. Cotton output is expected to rebound from last years’ experience of unseasonal rain affecting the crop. Production this year is seen at 341.9 lakh bales (170 kg) against 312.03 lakh bales last year. Pakistan’s cotton production has shrunk 19% to 2.19 million bales till September 15, 2022 in the current season mainly due to the devastation caused by heavy rainfall and flash floods nationwide. In Gujarat, new cotton arrival increased, and daily arrival reached 6,000 bales of 170 kg. Ginning mills have started buying seed cotton with the advent of the auspicious festival of Navratri. However, spinning mills are cautious as they expect a downward trend in cotton prices during peak arrival. In its monthly supply-demand report, the 2022/23 U.S. cotton projections include higher beginning stocks, production, exports and ending stocks this month, the USDA's report said. Additionally, the 2022/23 world cotton projections include higher production and ending stocks relative to last month, and lower consumption. In recent time, the heavy rainfalls and pest attacks are affecting the cotton crop. In the northern states of Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan cotton crop has been affected due to pink bollworm infestation. In spot market, Cotton gained by 160 Rupees to end at 34660 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -6.61% to settle at 565 while prices are down -430 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 33700 and below same could see a test of 33170 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 35030, a move above could see prices testing 35830.

Trading Ideas:
* Cotton trading range for the day is 33170-35830.
* Cotton dropped as worries of an imminent recession dampened demand for the natural fiber crop.
* However downside seen limited as crops remain threatened due to adverse weather conditions and pest attacks in major growing regions.
* Spinning mills are cautious as they expect a downward trend in cotton prices during peak arrival.
* In spot market, Cotton gained  by 160 Rupees to end at 34660 Rupees.