Wheat Demand Supply Price Trend Analysis – 11th By Origo Commodities India Pvt. Ltd
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Overview
WHEAT TO TRADE FIRM IN COMING DAYS
Wheat prices traded mostly flat over the previous day due to lower arrivals, price outlook remains strong for the coming days.
Key Factors
* Wheat acreage decline by 1.72% y-o-y: As of 7th Jan22, wheat sowing is completed on 333.97 Lakh Ha, down 1.72% y-o-y. Sowing is completed on 95% of the targeted area.
* Sowing is almost completed across the major wheat producing states of Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh.
* Beneficial Weather: Rains in the past week across the major wheat producing belt of Northern India remain beneficial for crop growth. Despite a slight decline in acreages wheat production is expected to remain at par or above the previous year level due to improvement in yields as the weather remains quite beneficial to date.
* Thin Arrivals: Wheat arrivals declined by 6.4% over the previous week at 1.30 Lakh MT.
* Wheat Open market sale from Apr-21 to 5th Jan-22 was 6.43 MMT Vs 1.20 MMT last year.
* Govt. wheat distribution under all schemes from Apr-21 to Nov-21 was 32.24 MMT Vs 26.6 MMT last year. Meanwhile, wheat distribution under PMGKAY from May21 to Nov-21 was 12.9 MMT Vs 10.36 MMT last year. This scheme is extended till Mar-22 wherein another 7.3 MMT is allocated from Dec-21 to Mar-22.
* Govt. wheat end stocks in 2021-22 is estimated at 21.72 MMT Vs 27.3 MMT last year.
* Rake Movement: Wheat movement by rake during 1st Jan to 10th Jan was 67800 MT, out of total around 23450
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