Weekly Update: June witnessed rainfall deficit, but much of the season still remains - Motilal Oswal
Southwest monsoon at 7% deficit as of 26th Jun’22
* After a brief three-day period (22nd -24th Jun’22) of heavy rainfall in the northwest region, which led to 0% deficit in all-India rainfall on 22nd Jun’22, India’s cumulative rainfall has once again reported a deficit of 7% (v/s normal levels) as of 26th Jun’22, compared with a surplus of 20% in CY21 and 22% in CY20. The deficiency is caused by the northwest region, which has again fallen into deficit coupled with the other two regions – central and south – that continue to exhibit shortfalls (Exhibits 1,2,3).
* The southwest monsoon season is critical to Kharif sowing and such inconsistency in rains has raised concern over food prices. As of 24th Jun’22, Kharif sowing is 24% lower than the area sown last year (Exhibit 4).
* However, the monsoon season consists of four months, of which three are still remaining. Month-wise rainfall received during CY02-21 shows that on an average, June receives only 19% of the season’s rainfall. July receives almost one-third, followed by August at 29% of the total rainfall in one season. In CY21 as well, while June received 21% of the rainfall, July received 30% followed by August at 22%. Therefore, however gloomy the situation may seem currently, it is still too early to draw any conclusions (Exhibit 5).
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