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NIFTY PSU BANK: 2716.55 weekly change (6.53%)

Observation

* Nifty PSU BANK index has been forming a higher high higher low pattern on the monthly charts, indicating that the long term trend of the index remains bullish.

* On the weekly time frame, we have shown a Triangle pattern, the prices broke above this pattern and managed to sustain above the same on closing basis. This Triangle pattern was formed after a strong up move, thus we can assume that the prices are breaking out of a bullish continuation pattern.

* We have also shown the Bollinger bands on the weekly chart, wherein we can see the bands expanding as the prices move higher, indicating expanding volatility as the prices move out of a consolidation. 

* The RSI throughout the consolidation phase managed to find support near the 50 mark, currently it can be seen moving higher as the prices attempt to break the multi month resistance level, indicating increasing bullish momentum in the prices.

* On the upside 3049 (Multiple touch point level and 78.6% extension level of the rise from 1232-2660 projected from 1910) will act as a resistance level, if this level is breached we might see the prices move higher towards 3493 (Multiple touch point level)

* The 2500 (the downward slopping trend line) will act as a key support level, if the prices breach below this level we might see the prices move lower towards 2320 (Multiple touch point level)

Inference & Expectations

* In the week that passed by the NIFTY PSU BANKS broke out of a bullish continuation pattern, it also breached above the previous swing high and sustain above the same.

* The price action on short and the medium term charts suggests that the prices are currently moving higher after breaking out of a consolidation.

* The technical parameters mentioned above point towards the possibility of increasing bullish momentum.

* Going Ahead we expect the bullish momentum to take the prices higher towards the 3049 mark, if the prices breach above 3049 mark we might see an up move towards the 3493 level.

* The RED FLAG level to watch for the index in the sessions to come is 2500, if the prices breach below this level we might see further down move towards 2320 mark.

NIFTY METALS: 6019.20 weekly change (5.94%)

Observation

* On the monthly time frame, the NIFTY METAL has been moving higher in a choppy manner for the past couple of months.

* On the weekly chart, we can see that the prices have broke out of a 11 week consolidation and has managed to end the week near lifetime highs.

* On the daily chart, we can see the Bollinger bands expanding as the prices breakout of a consolidation zone, indicating expanding volatility on a positive side as the prices breakout of a consolidation range.

* On the indicator front, the RSI plotted on the weekly time frame has halted it down move and is currently moving towards the higher level after forming a bullish hinge near the 60 mark, indicating gaining momentum as the prices move higher.

* Going ahead the 6164 (38.2% extension level of the rise from 2107-5524 projected from 4858) will act as an Key Resistance level, if the prices breach above this level we might see further up move towards 6567 (50% extension level of the rise from 2107-5524 projected from 4858).

* The 5715 weekly low will act as a red flag level, if this level is breached we might see the prices move lower towards the 5527 (20 Week SMA).

Inference & Expectations

* NIFTY METAL seems to be moving out of a consolidation range.

* The price action and the technical parameters mentioned above, point towards increasing momentum and volatility on a positive side as the prices move higher.

* We expect this momentum to take the prices higher towards the 6164, if the prices breach above the 6164 mark, we might see the prices move further up and test the 6567 level.

* The above analysis will stand negated if the prices breach below the 5715 mark, if it sustain below the 5715 mark we might see the prices move lower towards 5527 mark

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