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Below is on Weekly Wrap Up By Mr. Sameet Chavan, Chief Analyst-Technical and Derivatives, Angel One Ltd

The SGX Nifty had indicated a soft opening for the new calendar year. However, our markets completely shrugged off these cues as they started the session marginally in the green on Monday. We did see some ambiguity in the first half; but with few heavyweights attracting strong buying around the mid-session, Nifty picked up decent momentum in the upward direction. Eventually, we ended the inaugural session around day’s high by adding half a percent to the previous close. The following session looked promising; but Nifty was struggling to surpass the sturdy wall around 18250 – 18300. Finally, this failure translated into a price drop around the mid-week. The selling augmented towards the fag end of the week and in the process, we went on to slide below 17900 during Friday’s session.

The start was promising but the end was certainly disappointing for the opening week of the calendar year 2023. The benchmark index Nifty gave up all previous week’s gain and has closed around the lower end of the recent trading range. Now taking a glance at the daily time frame chart, undoubtedly the price structure looks a bit weak and in fact, the price decline in the last two sessions has certainly caught us on the wrong foot as we were not expecting the Nifty to slide below the 18000 mark. Nevertheless, previous week’s low of 17750 would now be seen as a crucial pivotal point for our market. As of now, we are still a bit hopeful of recovery; but in case, if Nifty slides and sustains below 17750, we must prepare for extension of this corrective move towards 17600 – 17450 in the coming week. On the flipside, in order to regain the strength, Nifty must reclaim 18000 first on a closing basis. The major trend deciding level remains at 18300, which would turn the tide once again in favor of bulls.

Traders are advised to keep a close tab on all these above-mentioned scenarios. The only positive takeaway at the end of the week would be the resilience of the broader market. Unlike last-to-last week’s decline, this time, the Nifty MIDCAP50 index remained firm and did not participate in this week’s hammering. In case of recovery, the broader end of the spectrum would outperform heavyweights and we would probably then witness a beginning of the pre-budget rally. Also, with result season kicking in on Monday, all focus would first be on major IT heavyweights, which would dictate the near-term direction for this underperforming space.

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