IGI Logo

Rupee Likely To Open Lower On Risk-off Moods - HDFC Securities 

Rupee expected to open flat against US dollar ahead of central monetary policy outcome. Market don’t expect any rate cut but would like to hear borrowing plan which could spike in higher volatility in bond market. Rupee 10-year yields may soon head to 6.50% and even higher unless the RBI can convince the bond market of its support.

The Dollar Spot Index is on track for its best week in three months as the economic data have been better than forecast, and economists are expecting at least $1 trillion worth of stimulus by midMarch. ICE Dollar Index reached its best close since late November, but the bouncing buck was unable to derail the rally in USDINR mainly on back strong foreign fund inflows.

On Thursday, spot USDINR ended flat to 72.96. Technically, the pair is in down trend and expected remain in downtrend until it closes above 73.50 while on downside central bank likely protect the level of 72.75

Asian stocks looked set for gains after their U.S. peers climbed to a record on signs the labor market is healing.

USD/JPY has reached its 200-day moving average for the first time since June and some traders are looking for another quick spike higher once the line is breached. The upside path may be smoother because the pair already pushed above 105 option strikes this week.

The pound rebounded after the Bank of England said negative rates weren’t imminent and the nation is heading for a rapid rebound on its vaccination efforts. A widely watched segment of the Treasury yield curve, the 5s30s spread, steepened to levels last seen in 2015 due to optimism about the economy.

US Fiscal Stimulus: Senate Budget Committee Chair Bernie Sanders is tapping an expert in the chamber’s arcane rules as the panel’s top lawyer, to help push through President Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion relief package. The next step in the legislative process is due Thursday.

USDINR

USDINR February futures facing resistance at 55 hours exponential moving average (EMA) and closed below 20 EMA

The pair trading in bearish sequence of lower top lower bottom on daily and hourly chart.Momentum oscillator, RSI on hourly chart placed below 50 and facing trend line resistance suggesting downward momentum

Short term trend remains bearish until pair closes above 73.25 while on downside we could see level of 73 in coming days.

To Read Complete Report & Disclaimer Click Here

Please refer disclaimer at https://www.hdfcsec.com/article/disclaimer-1795

SEBI Registration number is INZ000171337

Views express by all participants are for information & academic purpose only. Kindly read disclaimer before referring below views. Click Here For Disclaimer