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Gold

Gold yesterday settled up by 1.54% at 56150 as investors digested a batch of labor market data for February. Non-farm payrolls totaled 311,000 in the period, well above market estimates of 205,000 and in line with other hot labor data to confirm the persistent tightness in the US labor market. Still, the unemployment rate edged 0.2 percentage points higher and labor income slowed down, suggesting the job market may be starting to feel the effects of aggressive rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. Treasury yields held the slide from the last session after SVB Financial Group struggled to meet depositor demand and raised worries that the Federal Reserve was on course to overtighten its policy, driving investors to flee to the safety of US debt. Physical gold dealers in India were forced to offer discounts as purchases moderated heading into the end of the financial year, while top consumer China saw robust demand. Premiums of $26-$40 an ounce were charged in China in comparison with global benchmark spot gold prices, which were headed for a weekly fall. Chinese premiums have steadily risen this year, going as high as $40. In India, dealers still had to offer discounts of up to $2 an ounce over official domestic prices versus last week's $1 premiums. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 0.59% to settle at 9440 while prices are up 849 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 55550 and below same could see a test of 54950 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 56470, a move above could see prices testing 56790.

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 54950-56790.
* Gold gains as investors digested a batch of labor market data for February.
* Non-farm payrolls totaled 311,000 in the period, well above market estimates of 205,000 and in line with other hot labor data
* The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note fell to below 3.8% on Friday, the lowest in over three weeks


Silver

Silver yesterday settled up by 1.46% at 62890 after the payrolls report sent the dollar down. The Labor Department's closely watched employment report showed that US employers hired more workers than expected in February, with nonfarm payrolls increasing by 311,000 jobs last month. The unemployment rate in the US edged up to 3.6 percent in February 2023, up from a 50-year low of 3.4 percent seen in January and above market expectations of 3.4 percent. The number of unemployed people increased by 242 thousand to 5.94 million and employment levels rose by 177 thousand to 160.32 million. Fed Chair Powell told the US Congress that the ultimate level of interest rates could be higher than anticipated in light of strong economic data, and that the central bank would be prepared to increase the pace of tightening if needed. After the NFP release, expectations eased about the need for higher interest rates. The market is now pricing a 50/50 chance of the Fed raising rates by either 25bps or 50bps this month, compared to a better-than-even chance of 50bps increase earlier. Support also seen amid tight supplies, with inventories at the LBMA and COMEX remaining at low levels. Additionally, new data revealed reserves by major producer, Peru, dropped by 22,000 tonnes to 98,000 in 2022. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -13.43% to settle at 15345 while prices are up 906 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 61619 and below same could see a test of 60348 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 63895, a move above could see prices testing 64900.

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 60348-64900.
* Silver gains after the payrolls report sent the dollar down.
* The Labor Department's closely watched employment report showed that US employers hired more workers than expected in February
* The US economy added 311K jobs in February, way more than expected.

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled up by 0.35% at 6299 as the dollar turned weak after data showed an uptick in U.S. unemployment rate in the month of February. OPEC Secretary-General Haitham Al-Ghais echoed such concerns, saying weakening oil consumption in the US and Europe could threaten the market. Investors are closely monitoring export cuts from Russia, which decided to trim oil output by 500,000 barrels per day in March. U.S. crude production and demand will rise in 2023 as Chinese travel drives consumption, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO). The EIA projected that crude production will rise by 590,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 12.44 bpd in 2023 and by another 190,000 bpd to 12.63 million bpd next year. The EIA also projected petroleum and other liquid fuels consumption would rise by 100,000 bpd to 20.4 million bpd in 2023. China is expected to be the main driver of global growth in 2023 as its shift from its zero-COVID policy increases travel, the EIA said. U.S. crude oil stockpiles fell last week, breaking a 10-week streak of builds, while distillate inventories rose to the highest level in over a year, the Energy Information Administration said. Crude inventories fell by 1.7 million barrels to 478.5 million barrels in the week ending March 3. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -24.87% to settle at 7290 while prices are up 22 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 6192 and below same could see a test of 6086 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6363, a move above could see prices testing 6428.

Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 6086-6428.
* Crude oil prices climbed higher as the dollar turned weak after data showed an uptick in U.S. unemployment rate in the month of February.
* Investors are closely monitoring export cuts from Russia, which decided to trim oil output by 500,000 barrels per day in March.
* OPEC Secretary-General Haitham Al-Ghais echoed such concerns, saying weakening oil consumption in the US and Europe could threaten the market.

Natural Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -3.25% at 202.4 on forecasts for less cold weather and lower heating demand over the next two weeks than previously expected. That price decline came even though the amount of gas flowing to U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants was on track to hit a monthly record high in March after Freeport LNG's export plant in Texas exited an eight-month outage in February. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities pulled 84 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas from storage during the week ended March 3. Average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 98.7 bcfd so far in March from 98.2 bcfd in February. That compares with a monthly record of 99.9 bcfd in November 2022. U.S. natural gas production will rise to a record high in 2023, while demand will fall, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO). EIA projected dry gas production will rise to 100.67 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in 2023 and 101.69 bcfd in 2024 from a record 98.09 bcfd in 2022. The agency also projected domestic gas consumption would fall to 86.40 bcfd in 2023 and 86.06 bcfd in 2024 from a record 88.54 bcfd in 2022. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 6.42% to settle at 34855 while prices are down -6.8 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 198.7 and below same could see a test of 195.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 208.6, a move above could see prices testing 214.9.

Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 195.1-214.9.
* Natural gas slid on forecasts for less cold weather and lower heating demand over the next two weeks than previously expected.
* U.S. natural gas production will rise to a record high in 2023, while demand will fall
* EIA projected dry gas production will rise to 100.67 bcfd in 2023 and 101.69 bcfd in 2024 from a record 98.09 bcfd in 2022.


Copper

Copper yesterday settled down by -0.17% at 752.65 as concerns of a slowing economy and some respite to tight supply offset expectations of higher demand from China. Jitters in the US banking sector spurred worries that the Fed is on an overtightening course and raised concerns of lower economic activity in the coming months. On the supply side, improved situations in key mines in Peru and Indonesia eased worries of a wider supply deficit, while Canada’s First Quantum Minerals settled a deal with the Panamanian government on profit sharing and is expected to resume activity. Limiting the decline, the Chinese government set a growth target of 5% for this year during its National People’s Congress session and confirmed incoming stimulus for infrastructure and construction. China's banks extended CNY 1.81 trillion in new yuan loans in February 2023, down from a record CNY 4.90 trillion in the previous month but above market expectations of CNY 1.50 trillion. It was also the largest amount of new bank loans for a February month since at least 2004, as activity and demand rebounded helped by Beijing's efforts to boost growth in the world's second-biggest economy and following the lifting of harsh pandemic controls. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -3.55% to settle at 4480 while prices are down -1.3 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 745.3 and below same could see a test of 738 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 758.8, a move above could see prices testing 765.

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 738-765.
* Copper eased as concerns of a slowing economy and some respite to tight supply offset expectations of higher demand from China.
* Improved situations in key mines in Peru and Indonesia eased worries of a wider supply deficit
* Copper inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 10.8 % from last Friday

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled down by -1.1% at 260.1 as fears over persistent interest rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve weighed on investor sentiment, while improving supply prospects added downward pressure on the market. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's remarks about upcoming interest rate hikes aimed at fighting stubbornly high inflation exacerbated concerns over economic activities and global demand of industrial metals. China's decision to set a modest 5% economic growth target for 2023 dampened some optimism around a surge in demand by the world's largest buyer of natural resources. Meanwhile, recent data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) showed the global zinc market deficit rose to 100,500 tonnes in December from a revised 66,900 tonnes a month earlier. For the entire 2022 year, ILZSG data indicated a shortage of 306,000 tonnes versus a shortage of 204,000 tonnes in 2021. In March 2023, domestic refined zinc production will increase 59,000 mt MoM and 13% YoY to 560,400 mt. The output from January to March will reach 1.57 million mt, an increase of 6.87% year-on-year. Entering March, power cuts in Yunnan have affected the smelters in Qujing and Kunming. Meanwhile, the overproduction plan of domestic smelters and the resumption of secondary zinc smelters will bring about some additional increments. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 5.03% to settle at 3382 while prices are down -2.9 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 258.1 and below same could see a test of 256 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 262.3, a move above could see prices testing 264.4.

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 256-264.4.
* Zinc dropped as fears over persistent interest rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve weighed on investor sentiment.
* Improving supply prospects also added downward pressure on the market
* China's decision to set a modest 5% economic growth target for 2023 dampened some optimism around a surge in demand


Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -0.49% at 204.3 as China’s aluminium output in February (28 days) was up 4.9% year-on-year to 3.09 million mt. From January to February 2023, the domestic aluminium output totalled 6.51 million mt, a year-on-year increase of 5.8%. The total resumed capacity reached 200,000 mt in February. At the same time, Phase II aluminium project of Gansu Zhongrui reached the designed capacity, and the new capacity of Guizhou Xingren Denggao and Baiyinhua ramped up. The total new capacity reached around 160,000 mt. The previous production reduction in Yunnan will gradually be reflected in the output in March. Although the operating capacity in Guizhou and Sichuan is expected to resume, but it will make little contribution to production increase. The aluminium ingot social inventories across China's eight major markets stood at 1.267 million mt as of March 9, down 2,000 mt from a week ago, but up 122,000 mt from the same period last year. The social inventory remained high. Since the end of February, the inventory build-up has slowed down significantly, and the inventory has basically hovered around 1.27 million mt. After four consecutive weeks of decline, the domestic aluminium billet social inventory began to rise this week, adding 7,200 mt from a week ago to 163,400 mt as of March 9. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 0.85% to settle at 4044 while prices are down -1 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 202.8 and below same could see a test of 201.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 205.3, a move above could see prices testing 206.4.

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 201.4-206.4.
* Aluminum dropped as China’s aluminium output in February was up 4.9% year-on-year to 3.09 million mt.
* Further, persistently high inventory of aluminium ingots also weighing on prices.
* The domestic aluminium billet social inventory began to rise this week, adding 7,200 mt from a week ago to 163,400 mt

Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -0.3% at 1037.2 on profit booking after prices dropped on improving export demand especially from China. Mentha exports during Apr-Dec 2022 has dropped by 17.60 percent at 1,783.56 tonnes as compared to 2,164.56 tonnes exported during Apr-Dec 2021. In the month of December 2022 around 298.38 tonnes Mentha was exported as against 236.22 tonnes in November 2022 showing a rise of 26.29%. In the month of December 2022 around 298.32 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 351.18 tonnes in December 2021 showing a drop of 15.05%. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year, production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained by 2.9 Rupees to end at 1196.5 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -5.72% to settle at 807 while prices are down -3.1 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 1033.4 and below same could see a test of 1029.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1042.8, a move above could see prices testing 1048.3.

Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 1029.5-1048.3.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained  by 2.9 Rupees to end at 1196.5 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil dropped on profit booking after prices dropped on improving export demand especially from China.
* Mentha exports during Apr-Dec 2022 has dropped by 17.60 percent at 1,783.56 tonnes
* In the month of December 2022 around 298.38 tonnes Mentha was exported a rise of 26.29% compared to previous month.

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled up by 0.12% at 6914 on short covering after prices dropped as turmeric harvesting has started in the key growing regions and farmers and stockists are releasing their stocks, in the fear of further decline in prices. In AP (Nizamabad) Turmeric market around 5,000-7,000 bags are arriving on an average daily basis. In the Erode spot market 400-600 bags are reported on a daily basis, In the Sangli district it is around 3500-7000 bags. Coupled with weak demand in the export and domestic market prices are trading at lower levels (in the current season). Turmeric exports during Apr-Dec 2022 has rose by 6.81 percent at 1,24,008.08 tonnes as compared to 1,16,100.75 tonnes exported during Apr- Dec 2021. In the month of December 2022 around 12,039.57 tonnes turmeric was exported as against 12,398.63 tonnes in November 2022 showing a drop of 2.90%. In the month of December 2022 around 12,039.57 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 14,218.72 tonnes in December 2021 showing a rise of 15.83%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. The Spices Board has pegged turmeric production at 1.33 mln tn, up 18.4% on year. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 6984.75 Rupees gained 122.7 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -1.3% to settle at 12105 while prices are up 8 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 6860 and below same could see a test of 6806 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7002, a move above could see prices testing 7090.

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 6806-7090.
* Turmeric gained on short covering after prices dropped as turmeric harvesting has started in the key growing regions
* Farmers and stockists are releasing their stocks, in the fear of further decline in prices
* The crop is good this season despite some projection of a lower crop.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 6984.75 Rupees gained 122.7 Rupees.

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled up by 0.93% at 30935 as demand has improved in the export and domestic market due to the Ramadan season ahead. Buyers get active in most of the markets with the commencement of new crop arrivals. Strong supply pressures are reported in the market at 7,000 bags, higher by 1,000 bags as farmers and stockiests are anticipating corrections in prices with the improved crop conditions due to favourable weather conditions in key producing states. Some damage has been reported in Gujarat, Banaskantha region due to very low temperature and frost impact. However, overall crop condition is quite good in Gujarat area as compared to Rajasthan key growing regions. Jeera exports during Apr-Dec 2022 has dropped by 15.91 percent at 146,065.90 tonnes as compared to 173,703.10 tonnes exported during Apr- Dec 2021. In the month of December 2022 around 12,798.15 tonnes jeera was exported as against 11,235.11 tonnes in November 2022 showing a rise of 13.91%. In the month of December 2022 around 12,798.15 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 12,385.20 tonnes in December 2021 showing a rise of 3.33%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. Jeera production was seen at 725,651 tn, down 8.8% on year due to lower acreage in Rajasthan and Gujarat, the key producer, according to data from Spices Board India. According to fourth advanced estimates by Gujarat government, jeera production is seen fall by 44.5 per cent to 221500 tonnes in 2021-22 on yoy basis. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 402.05 Rupees to end at 30674.9 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 11.46% to settle at 4845 while prices are up 285 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 30620 and below same could see a test of 30310 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 31320, a move above could see prices testing 31710.

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 30310-31710.
* Jeera gains as demand has improved in the export and domestic market due to the Ramadan season ahead
* Global production will be higher at 4.35 lt against 4.08 lt.
* But net supplies from India are projected 7 per cent lower.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 402.05 Rupees to end at 30674.9 Rupees per 100 kg.

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