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Rupee Outlook and Strategy

* The US dollar index extended its gains for a fourth day in a row to go past the 104 mark amid better than expected economic numbers. The weekly jobless claims were reported lower than its forecast, which shows persistent strength in the labour market. Further, the second estimate of first-quarter GDP growth numbers was revised to 1.3% from an initial estimate of 1.1%

* Rupee future maturing on May 29 depreciated by 0.06% on Thursday amid firm dollar

* The rupee is likely to depreciate amid strong dollar. Further, strength in the labour market fuelled the bets that rates in US may remain elevated for a longer period. Meanwhile, focus will shift towards key US Core PCE price index data, which may further bring clarity on the future rate trajectory. The pair is likely to move towards 82.85, as long as it holds above the 10 day EMA at 82.58

Euro and Pound Outlook

* The Euro fell to its two month lows on Thursday amid a strong dollar and weaker economic numbers from eurozone. The German first quarter growth numbers indicated contraction in the economy. It was revised downwards to -0.3%, which weighed on the Euro to slide more than 0.25%

* The Euro is expected to trade under pressure amid strong dollar and weak global risk sentiments. The Euro is likely to move towards the immediate support near 1.070 as long as it trades under the 10 day EMA at 1.0790. EURINR is expected to weaken towards 88.50, as long as it trades under 89.00

* The pound fell the most and slid towards 1.23, testing its lowest point since April 04 amid stronger dollar. The weakness in CBI realised sales numbers, which hit its three month lows also weighed on the pair

* The pound is expected to weaken further amid a strong dollar and weak global risk sentiments. Meanwhile, expectation of improved retail sales data could limit its downside. GBPUSD is likely to face the resistance of 10 day EMA at 1.2390 and slide again towards 1.2270. GBPINR could slip towards 101.60 as long as it trades under 102.50

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