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Rupee Outlook and Strategy

• The US dollar continued its rally amid a surge in US treasury yields. The 10 year treasury yields hit three year high as investors processed possibility of more aggressive monetary tightening by Fed. Further, dollar gained strength on upbeat economic data from US and hawkish statements from Fed officials. US unemployment claims data showed number of people filling for jobless claims continued to decline

• Rupee future maturing on April 27 depreciated by 0.20% on the back of strong dollar, weak domestic markets and outflows from local stocks. Further, traders stayed cautious ahead of RBI monetary policy

• The rupee is expected to depreciate today amid a firm dollar and pessimistic global market sentiments. Further, investors will remain vigilant ahead of RBI’s monetary policy, where the central bank is likely to maintain status quo. More focus will be on statements and inflation projections to get hints on future monetary stance. US$INR (April) is expected to trade in a range of 75.80-76.35

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