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Rupee Outlook and Strategy

* The dollar edged lower by 0.17% on Monday as softening inflation expectations prompted a reassessment of the prospects for aggressive interest rate hikes. However, further downside was prevented by strong economic data. Pending home sales in the US unexpectedly increased 0.7% MoM in May, the first rise in seven months and beating market forecasts of a 3.7% fall. Despite the gain in May, much higher mortgage rates and low supply are expected to continue to weigh on the housing market

* US$INR futures maturing on June 28 gained by 0.11% on Monday amid rise in crude oil prices

* The rupee is expected to appreciate today amid a weak dollar. Also, investors will closely watch consumer confidence data as it is expected to fall from 106.4 to 100.4. However, the rupee may be pressurised by a rebound in crude oil prices. US$INR is expected to trade in the range of 78.50 to 78.30.

Dollar Index Vs US$INR

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