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Rupee Outlook and Strategy

* The US dollar index fell nearly 0.30% on Thursday as reduced global banking concerns dented the safe haven buying in dollar. Financial assistance from the Swiss national bank’s liquidity facility to Credit Suisse has calmed down the turbulence in financial markets. Meanwhile, better-than-expected US weekly jobless claims and housing numbers has limited the downside in the dollar

* The rupee future maturing on March 28 appreciated to 82.85 amid weakness in crude oil and recovery in domestic equities

* The US$INR is likely to face the resistance near the key psychological level at 83 and move back towards 82.40 amid improved risk sentiments. Further expectation of decline consumer sentiments in US could limit the upside in the dollar. US$INR is hovering near the multi month resistance zone of 83. As long as the pair stays under 83 it is expected to dip towards the initial support of 20 day EMA at 82.40

Euro and Pound Outlook

* The Euro gained ground against the dollar after the ECB hiked the rates by 50 bps to 3.5%. ECB projected inflation will remain quite high for a long time and also raised its 2023 eurozone GDP forecast to 1% from its prior forecast of 0.5%

* The Euro is expected to trade on a bullish note amid improved risk sentiments after reduced European banking concerns. Further, expectation of sticky inflation number from eurozone would also support the pair. The pair is hovering above the key 100 day EMA at 1.055, which could act as key support to Euro and help it to rise above the immediate resistance at 1.065. EURINR (March) is likely to hold the support of 20 day EMA at 87.50 and rise back towards 88.20

* The pound moved back above the 1.21 mark with a gain of 0.43% as the fear of global banking strain eased. Further recovery in global equities and decline in dollar has supported the pair to rise

* The pound is expected to trade in the range of 1.2025-1.2160 with a bullish bias amid improved risk sentiments. The pair is still hovering in between the mid and higher range of the Bollinger band channel suggesting bull case. Hence, as long as 1.2025 holds, the pair is likely to move towards 1.2160-1.2180. GBPINR (March) is likely to hold the support near 99.50 and move towards the immediate resistance at 100.40

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