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Market Roundup

The Indian rupee sets for the best quarter in nine backed by foreign fund inflows and lower crude oil prices.

The forward market indicates USDINR opening around 82.10 following stronger Asian currencies and a rebound in global equities.

Indian market remained closed on Thursday because of Ram Navami Holiday. On Wednesday, spot USDINR gained 14 paise to 82.33 following dollar demand from some of the defense companies. Technically, the pair has been consolidating between 81.70 to 82.50.

Asian stocks look set to end the first quarter in a buoyant way after the S&P 500 index ended Thursday’strading at a six-week high. In Asia, FTSE Russell will keep South Korea on the watch list for inclusion in its global bond index — and India for the emerging-market equivalent — prolonging the countries’ wait to get into key market gauges.

Elsewhere, oil traded near a two-week high. Gold was little changed on Friday, but headed for the biggest monthly gain since July 2020.

East Asia and Pacific economiesremain broadly more resilient than other regions and should grow faster this year than in 2022, even with scars of the pandemic and war, the World Bank said.

The yen weakened against all of its major peers in a thin Japanese fiscal year-end session as easing concern about the banking sector improved risk sentiment. The International Monetary Fund said the BOJ should avoid a premature exit from monetary easing, advising it to maintain its policy framework.

An official gauge of China’s manufacturing fell to 51.9 in March but was higher than the median economist estimate of 51.6.

US Banks reduced their borrowings from two Fed backstop lending facilities in the mostrecent week, a sign that liquidity demand may be stabilizing.

Technical Observations:

USDINR April futures oscillating near the short-term moving average of 21 days.

The pair has been trading in a symmetrical triangle since the start of 2023. The near-term trend remains sideways to bearish. It has support at 82.10,

the upwardslopping trend line adjoining the previous swing low of 80.91 and 81.71.

While getting resistance at 82.70, the downward-slopping trendline adjoining the previous swing high of 83.09 and 82.89.

The momentum oscillators and indicators remained sideways on the daily chart, lacking a directional view.

The pair is expected to trade between 82.70 to 82.20.

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