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India’s rupee is on the verge of finally coming out of its six months range as the greenback and crude oil started weakening. On Wednesday, spot USDINR fell 15 paise to 81.77.

The forward markets indicate a flat opening of USDINR at domestic bourses. Technically, the pair has support at 81.45, the 200-day simple moving average line and resistance at 82.30. The bearish bias gets negated only above 82.50.

Dollar Spot Index declined to 101.4, paring Tuesday’s gains as US bank woes persisted. Euro, British pound and Norwegian krone were among the topperforming G10 currencies. The yen stayed in a narrow range as the Bank of Japan began a two-day policy meeting, the first with Kazuo Ueda as governor.

Asian stocks declined for a fifth day after US shares weakened in an echo of the prior session as concern over American regional banks outweighed better-thanexpected technology earnings.

Elsewhere in markets, oil inched higher after a Wednesday fall and gold was flat. Brent crude has erased all of its gains since the shock production cuts announced by OPEC+ in early April as concerns over the health of the economy curb the outlook for demand

The US House of Representatives narrowly passed a bill to raise the nation's $31.4 trillion debt ceiling, defying President Joe Biden by attaching sweeping spending cuts for the next decade.

US jobless claims and GDP data due Thursday will help identify the health of the US economy before the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE deflator, due Friday.

Technical Observations:

* USDINR May fut. has been trading in the bearish sequence of lower tops and lower bottoms.

* The pair has been placed well below the short-term moving averages

* Momentum Oscillator, RSI of 14 days period is placed below 50 and heading towards the oversold zone

* MACD has been placed below a zero line with a negative histogram bar.

* Short build-up has been seen as price, open interest and volume declined on Wednesday.

* The pair has support at 81.58, as shown by a horizontal line.

* We remain bearish on USDINR May futures and expect 81.60 in the coming days

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