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Sensex (57527) / Nifty (16945)

The last expiry session of the financial year has been volatile, wherein an intense tug of war was seen between the bulls and the bears throughout the day. And eventually, by the fag end, the bulls charged to levitate the market. Amidst all the whipsaw moves, the benchmark index managed to sustain at higher grounds, backed by the short covering rally and concluded the day on a positive note. The Nifty50 index settled the day a tad below the 17100 level, procuring 0.76 percent gain.

Technically, there has been no significant change in the chart structure as the index subsides within the key range. However, the buying emergence in the broader market could be seen as a constructive development for the participants and withheld the hope of revival in the comparable period. From the technical aspect, the key support is placed around the 17000-16950 zone, followed by the sacrosanct support of 16900-16850. While on the flip side, surpassing the sturdy hurdle of 17100-17200 is a daunting task for the bulls and until it gets decisively breached, the index is likely to remain in the consolidation zone.

The markets have certainly gained some traction led by the expiry trade and many stock-specific adjustments kept the traders on their toes. We would advocate to focus more on the stock-centric approach till the index does not have a range breakout and avoid aggressive bets. Meanwhile, a close tab should be kept on the developments of the global bouses which are likely to impact the near-term trend of our market.

Nifty Bank Outlook (39395)

Bank Nifty began positively on the expiry day, and the overall sentiment remained optimistic as the intraday decline was quickly bought into. In the final half-hour, prices saw a significant surge, ultimately ending at the highest point with a gain of 0.86%, just above 39,900. In the previous outlook, the bank index had shown signs of outperformance, and prices had broken out of the congestion zone on the intraday charts. Following this breakout, we finally saw some excitement back in the market after a long time. With the recent development, prices are now above the strong resistance of the 200SMA, and we are beginning to see early signs of a higher bottom on the daily chart. Additionally, we are also seeing a fresh buy signal in the RSI smoothened with its signal line. Traders are advised to maintain a positive bias and view dips as an opportunity to buy. Immediate support is seen in the range of 39,700-39,600, while the strong support base shifts to 39,200. On the flip side, a recent minor top around 40,200 is seen as immediate resistance, above which doors may open for further upside in the near term at the 40,800-41,000 levels.

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