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Sensex

Trend – The index has seen signs of profit booking in the month of February after making new all-time highs of 52516. After the stellar rally of around 9% the index is approaching the low er end of the rising price channel.

Pattern – The index has closed above its previous resistance w hich says that bulls are in clear control. Any pullback (if any) should be used as a buying opportunity. Major support is at 48000 going forw ard.

Momentum – On the w eekly chart, the RSI has eased off the overbought territory which says that the momentum is sidew ays as of now . Good bullish momentum build-up w as seen in all the sectors specially in Metals, Banking and Capital goods.

Direction – The index is expected to trade in positive territory until it breaks 45500 on the dow nside.

Volatility – The w eekly ATR has reached 1797 points which means that Sensex currently has a range of 1797 points for a given w eek. Although on the daily timeframe, it has remained flat throughout the month w ith few ups and dow ns indicating the trend in still intact. INDIAVIX (28.14) has gained around 11% w hich means volatility had increased.

Market breadth – Sensex has been underperforming the BSE Midcap and BSE Smallcap index on the monthly timeframe indicating that the overall market breadth is mixed. 430 stocks of BSE 500 index are above the 200-day SMA indicating the larger trend has been stable. The breadth has declined as compared to last month w here 451 stocks were above the 200-day MA.

Our take – Sensex has closed near all time high indicating strong and sustained up trend across all the time frames. Though our bias still remains positive, w e observed some early signs of profit booking in this overstretched rally, hence traders are advised to w ait and w atch for short term corrections to create fresh longs. From current levels, the short to medium term trend still remains intact and the bulls to continue their bullish command into the markets tow ards 52000- 55000 levels. On the dow nside an immediate support is placed around 48800 levels how ever any violation of this support zone on closing basis may cause short term correction tow ards 48000-47300 levels. Major support zone is around 46400-46000 levels.

Nifty 50

Trend – The index has seen signs of profit booking in the month of February after making new all-time highs of 15431. After the stellar rally of around 9% the index is approaching the low er end of the rising price channel.

Pattern – The index has closed above its previous resistance w hich says that bulls are in clear control. Any pullback (if any) should be used as a buying opportunity. Major support is at 14400 going forw ard.

Momentum – On the w eekly chart, the RSI has eased off the overbought territory which says that the momentum is sidew ays as of now . Good bullish momentum build-up w as seen in all the sectors specially in Metals, Banking and Capital goods.

Direction – The index is expected to trade in positive territory until it breaks 14400 on the dow nside.

Volatility – The w eekly ATR has reached 670 points w hich means that Nifty currently has a range of 670 points for a given week. Although on the daily timeframe, it has remained flat throughout the month w ith few ups and dow ns indicating the trend in still intact. INDIAVIX (28.14) has gained around 11% w hich means volatility had increased.

Market breadth – Nifty has been underperforming the NSE Midcap and NSE Smallcap index on the monthly timeframe indicating that the overall market breadth is mixed. 433 stocks of BSE 500 index are above the 200-day SMA indicating the larger trend has been stable. The breadth has declined as compared to last month w here 457 stocks were above the 200-day MA.

Our take – Nifty has closed at all time high indicating strong and sustained up trend across all the time frames. Though our bias still remains positive, w e observed some early signs of profit booking in this overstretched rally, hence traders are advised to w ait and w atch for short term corrections to create fresh longs. From current levels, the short to medium term trend still remains intact and the bulls to continue their bullish command into the markets tow ards 15300-15500 levels. On the dow nside an immediate support is placed around 14400 levels how ever any violation of this support zone on closing basis may cause short term correction tow ards 14300-14000 levels

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