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Indian markets could open higher in line with positive US markets on Monday. Most Asian markets are shut today due to Lunar year holidays.-   HDFC Securities

The Nasdaq Composite recorded its biggest percentage drop in almost two years, as well as its worst January in over a decade, despite Monday’s broader rally in stocks — capping a brutal month for investors. Investors are also fearful about what a weak downturn in January means for returns for the remainder of the year, based on seasonal trends. World stocks climbed higher on Monday as investors digested new optimism from the U.S. Treasury's top economist that inflationary pressures should ease in 2022 due to weaker demand for goods, easing supply bottlenecks and a receding coronavirus pandemic.

India's eight core sectors grew by 3.8 percent in December 2021, compared to 3.4 percent in November 2021, the government said on January 31. According to data provided by the commerce ministry, coal output rose by 5.2 percent, while that of refinery products increased by 5.9 percent. The increase in output in December 2021 was largest for natural gas, which posted an increase of 19.5 percent. Cement followed closely, with its output rising 12.9 percent. India's GDP contracted by 6.6 percent in FY21, according to the National Statistical Office's first revised estimate released on January 31. The revised estimate compares favourably with the provisional estimate of a 7.3 percent contraction, released in May 2021.

The goods and services tax (GST) collection crossed the Rs 1.30 lakh crore-mark for the fourth time as the government collected Rs 1,38,394 crore in gross GST revenue for January 2022, the finance ministry said on January 31. This rise is attributed to the trend of a 26% year-on-year increase in import of goods and revenues from domestic transactions, including import of services, which rose 12% over the preceding year. The Indian government's fiscal position remains comfortable, with data for the first nine months of the financial year showing that only half the budgeted deficit had been exhausted. For April-December FY22, the fiscal deficit stood at 50.4% compared to 145.5% last year. Stronger tax and non-tax receipts have helped the government stabilise its budget.

Oil prices rose on Monday to end January with their biggest monthly gain in a year, boosted by a supply shortage and political tensions in Eastern Europe and the Middle East. The most-active Brent contract, for April delivery , traded 74 cents higher, or 0.8%, to settle at $89.26 per barrel. Asian stocks on Tuesday harnessed the tailwind from a technology-led rally in the U.S. that was spurred by dip buyers betting this year’s equity rout is going to ebb. Several Asian markets including China and South Korea are shut for the Lunar New Year holiday.

Nifty opened gap up on Jan 31 and rose slowly in the morning. At close, Nifty was up 1.39% or 237.9 points at 17339.9. In the process Nifty ended up being the best performer in the Asian region. FY23 GDP forecast at 8-8.5% ahead of the Union Budget to be presented on February 1 by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman enthused Indian markets. Nifty rose smartly on Jan 31 but ended up making a doji like pattern after a rise and made a triple top on an intra day basis. Advance decline ratio remains positive. The high of 17410 needs to be breached in which case 17485 is the next resistance while 17208 could act as a support. However, based on Budget pronouncements, the band of Nifty could widen.

Daily Technical View on Nifty

Strengthening of upside momentum..

Observation: After showing high volatility on Friday, Nifty shifted into a sustainable upmove on Monday and closed the day with a decent gains of 237 points. A small positive candle was formed on the daily chart with gap up opening and with minor upper shadow. Technically, this pattern indicate a strengthening of upside momentum, post formation of a swing low of 16836 on 25th Jan 22. Hence, that swing low could now be considered as a short term bottom reversal for the market. This is positive indication and one may expect further upside for the short term. The formation of upper shadows of the last two sessions indicate a presence of key resistance around 17350- 17400 levels. After sustaining above the important uptrend line support as per daily and weekly chart around 16800-16900 levels recently, the upside movement in the market was expected as per its recent past movement. If the market fails to sustain the upside momentum in the short term, then one may expect Nifty to retest the lower support. Key economic event of Union Budget is on 1st of Feb and this event is expected to bring high volatility in the market. There is a possibility of 1-2% swing movements in Nifty on either side, as happened in the past during this event.

Conclusion: The short term upmove of the market seems to have strengthened. There is a possibility of further upside in the next session, but the occurrence of high volatility can't be ruled out. A sustainable upmove by Tuesday session could open more upside towards 17700-17800 levels in the near term. Immediate support is placed at 17260 levels.

Nifty – Daily Timeframe chart

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