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TRAI’s Feb’23 subscriber (subs) data shows industry’s MBB (mobile broadband — 3G+4G) subs addition was weak at only 0.4mn (vs. ~5mn additions per month since May’22, except for a moderate 1.6mn addition in Sep’22). MBB additions in Feb’23 continued to be robust for Bharti (2.2mn) and Jio (1.0mn), but that was offset by the decline seen for VIL (-1.3mn; first decline in the last 8 months) and BSNL (-1.5mn). Industry’s active subs rose by a steady 2.7mn in Feb’23 due to addition of 3.2mn/0.8mn for Jio/Bharti; however, active subs base continued to decline for VIL (0.8mn). Industry’s overall subs fell by 1.1mn in Feb’23, continuing the muted growth/declining trend since Dec’21 due to churn in the lower ARPU segments given the sharp jump in entry level prepaid tariffs. Jio’s net subs rose for the 12th consecutive month (up 1.0mn in Feb’23); active subs addition was also robust at 3.2mn. Hence, Jio’s VLR ratio recovered MoM to 93.1% in Feb’23 vs. 92.6% in Jan’23 (vs. peak of 94.0% in Feb’22, but it is significantly higher than sub-80% before Aug’21) and vs. 99.3% for Bharti and 87.6% for VIL. Bharti’s MBB subs addition was robust at 2.2mn in Feb’23 while active subs addition was steady at 0.8mn. VIL’s MBB subs declined by 1.3mn in Feb’23 – first decline in the last 8 months; further, the decline in active subs continues for the company. Separately, Jio and Bharti’s robust FTTH addition continues, though additions have moderated since Jan’23.

* Jio’s net subs rises for the 12th consecutive month (up 1.0mn in Feb’23); active subs addition also robust at 3.2mn: Jio’s net subs rose by 1.0mn in Feb’23 following a monthly increase ranging from 0.7mn to 3.3mn since Mar’22. Jio had reported a net subs loss of 3.7mn/9.3mn/12.9mn/19mn in Feb’22/Jan’22/Dec’21/Sep’21 due to sim consolidation post the Nov’21 tariff hike and repurposing of customer retention efforts for low-ARPU subscribers. Jio’s active subs rose again by strong 3.2mn in Feb’23, continuing the robust trend of 3.5mn/3.0mn in Jan’23/Dec’22, and 4.9mn/1.4mn/2.5mn in Oct’22/Sep’22/Aug’22. Hence, Jio’s VLR ratio recovered MoM to 93.1% in Feb’23 vs. 92.6% in Jan’23 (vs. peak of 94.0% in Feb’22, but it is significantly higher than sub-80% before Aug’21) and vs. 99.3% for Bharti and 87.6% for VIL.

* Bharti’s MBB subs addition robust at 2.2mn in Feb’23; active subs addition steady at 0.8mn: Bharti’s MBB (mobile broadband – 3G+4G) subs addition continued to be robust at 2.2mn in Feb’23 after the company reported robust addition of 1.5mn-3mn each month in Feb’22-Jan’23 (except for a decline of 0.3mn in Apr’22). Further, Bharti’s active subs base went up by 0.8mn in Feb’23; it has seen steady addition of 1mn-2mn each month since May’22 (except for 1.0mn decline each in Jul’22 and Oct’22); hence, its VLR ratio remained strong at 99.3% in Feb’23.

* VIL’s MBB subs declined by 1.3mn in Feb’23 – first decline in last 8 months; decline in active subs continues: VIL’s MBB subs declined by 1.3mn in Feb’23 – first decline in the last 8 months (with this, Dec’21-Feb’23 cumulatively witnessed only 1.3mn rise in MBB subs). Further, its active subs base declined by 0.8mn in Feb’23, continuing the declining trend over the past many months due to churn in the lower ARPU segments given the entry level prepaid tariffs undertaken in Jul’21 and Nov’21. Notwithstanding the moratoriums, VIL needs to close the fund-raise exercise quickly for a meaningful increase in capex to boost upgrade of customers to MBB.

* Jio and Bharti’s robust FTTH addition continues, though addition has moderated since Jan’23: Jio’s FTTH subs additions continued to be robust at 0.18mn in Feb’23, though moderating vs. monthly addition of +0.25mn witnessed since the last few months (and below peak addition of 0.35mn in Apr’22). Further, Bharti’s FTTH subs addition was robust at 0.13mn in Feb’23 (vs. peak addition of 0.17mn in Jul’21).

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