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Gold

Gold yesterday settled down by -0.11% at 47068 as the dollar index edged up from a one-month low, as investors awaited a key U.S. jobs report for clues on when the Federal Reserve might start reducing its pandemic-era stimulus measures. U.S. manufacturing activity unexpectedly picked up in August amid strong order growth, but a measure of factory employment dropped to a nine-month low, likely as workers remained scarce. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said its index of national factory activity inched up to 59.9 last month from a reading of 59.5 in July. U.S. private employers hired far fewer workers than expected in August, likely because of a resurgence in new COVID-19 infections, but the labor market continues to steadily recover. Private payrolls increased by 374,000 jobs last month after rising 326,000 in July, the ADP National Employment Report showed. U.S. construction spending picked up in July, lifted by gains in both private and public sector projects. The Commerce Department said that construction spending increased 0.3% after being unchanged June. Construction spending rose 9.0% on a year-on-year basis in July. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.07% to settled at 11109 while prices down -52 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 46940 and below same could see a test of 46812 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 47236, a move above could see prices testing 47404.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 46812-47404.
* Gold prices moved in a range and the dollar index edged up from a one-month low, as investors awaited a key U.S. jobs report for clues
* U.S. manufacturing activity unexpectedly picked up in August amid strong order growth
* U.S. private employers hired far fewer workers than expected in August, likely because of a resurgence in new COVID-19 infections

Silver

Silver yesterday settled up by 0.75% at 63840 as worries about surging COVID-19 infections and higher inflation cast a shadow on the economic outlook, Friday's U.S. nonfarm payrolls data is expected to influence the Fed's stimulus tapering strategy. U.S. private employers hired far fewer workers than expected in August, likely because of a resurgence in new COVID-19 infections, but the labor market continues to steadily recover. Private payrolls increased by 374,000 jobs last month after rising 326,000 in July, the ADP National Employment Report showed. A measure of U.S. consumer confidence hit a six-month low in August as consumers were put off by higher gasoline and grocery prices. Inflation in the U.S. is running at the highest level in 30 years based on the Federal Reserve's preferred price barometer. Inflation in the euro zone hit its highest level in almost a decade in August, according to an estimate from the EU's statistics office Eurostat. ECB policymaker Robert Holzmann said the central bank should start debating how it will phase out its pandemic-era stimulus. Fed Chair Jerome Powell told policymakers he believes "substantial further progress" has been made on some metrics, but the Fed will carefully assess incoming data and the evolving risks before deciding on QE tapering. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -13.99% to settled at 9682 while prices up 474 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 63075 and below same could see a test of 62310 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 64358, a move above could see prices testing 64876.

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 62310-64876.
* Silver prices rose as worries about surging COVID-19 infections and higher inflation cast a shadow on the economic outlook
*  A measure of U.S. consumer confidence hit a six-month low in August as consumers were put off by higher gasoline and grocery prices.
* ECB policymaker Robert Holzmann said the central bank should start debating how it will phase out its pandemic-era stimulus.
 

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled down by -0.66% at 4993 as Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies, a group known as OPEC+, have fulfilled a goal of removing excess oil from the global market and it is now important to keep the market balanced, Russia's top negotiator, Alexander Novak, said. "Joint actions allowed to take away (oil) excess accumulated when demand was down – think we have fulfilled this task. Now it is important to maintain this balance and synchronize production and demand as the market rebounds," Novak, also a deputy prime minister, said. Global oil demand is seen growing by 5.8-6 million barrels per day this year, Novak told, adding he saw the global oil market fully restored next year. U.S. crude stocks and distillate inventories fell while gasoline inventories rose, the Energy Information Administration said. Crude inventories fell by 7.2 million barrels in the week to August 27 to 425.4 million barrels, compared with expectations for a 3.1 million-barrel drop. Crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery hub rose by 836,000 barrels in the last week, EIA said. U.S. gasoline stocks rose by 1.3 million barrels in the week to 227.2 million barrels, the EIA said, compared with expectations for a 1.6 million-barrel drop. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 17.97% to settled at 4740 while prices down -33 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 4916 and below same could see a test of 4838 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5067, a move above could see prices testing 5140.

Trading Ideas:

* Crude oil trading range for the day is 4838-5140.
* Crude oil prices dropped as OPEC+ deal removed oil excess, now key to keep market in balance
* Global oil demand is seen growing by 5.8-6 million barrels per day this year, Novak told, adding he saw the global oil market fully restored next year.
* U.S. crude stocks and distillate inventories fell while gasoline inventories rose, the Energy Information Administration said

Natural gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 7.19% at 341.2 as key production facilities in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico remained offline while energy firms assessed the aftermath of Hurricane Ida. A total of 1.705 million barrels per day of oil production and 2.107 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) of natural gas output remain shut following evacuations at 278 platforms due to Hurricane Ida, the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement said. Data provider Refinitiv said total U.S. production averaged 92.0 bcfd in August, versus 91.6 bcfd in July. That compares with an all-time monthly high of 95.4 bcfd in November 2019. The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants has slipped to an average of 10.5 bcfd in August from 10.8 bcfd in the previous month, and much below April's 11.5 bcfd record. U.S. pipeline exports to Mexico dipped to an average 6.2 bcfd in August from July's 6.6 bcfd, and a monthly record of 6.7 bcfd in June. With a cooler season around the corner, Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would slide from 94.3 bcfd last week to 92.4 bcfd this week, as power generators burn less of the fuel with air conditioning demand easing. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 41.58% to settled at 20093 while prices up 22.9 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 325.9 and below same could see a test of 310.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 350.1, a move above could see prices testing 359.

Trading Ideas:

* Natural gas trading range for the day is 310.6-359.
* Natural gas climbed as key production facilities in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico remained offline while energy firms assessed the aftermath of Hurricane Ida.
* A total of 1.705 million barrels per day of oil production and 2.107 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) of natural gas output remain shut
* U.S. production is forecast to dip to 89.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) this week from 92.5 bcfd last week.
 

Copper 

Copper yesterday settled down by -1.76% at 708.25 as concerns of weak demand from top consumer China were stoked by the country's disappointing factory data. The state reserves administration in China said it released 150,000 tonnes of copper, aluminium and zinc into the market, completing the third round of metal auctions designed to keep a lid on prices. China's factory activity slipped into contraction in August for the first time in nearly 1-1/2 years as COVID-19 containment measures, supply bottlenecks and high raw material prices weighed on output. Manufacturing activity in August in other Asian major economies of Japan, South Korea and Taiwan also expanded at a slower rate on chip shortages and factory shutdowns. Factory activity in East Asia, India, Russia and Britain lost momentum in August, surveys showed. Euro zone manufacturing growth remained strong but raw materials prices rose. Chile's state-owned Codelco, the world's largest copper producer, said it has reached an early collective bargaining agreement with the five unions representing workers at its key El Teniente mine. A majority of workers had rejected a previous proposed agreement in mid-August. The company did not specify the details of the new agreement. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 14.6% to settled at 4789 while prices down -12.7 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 702.8 and below same could see a test of 697.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 717, a move above could see prices testing 725.6.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 697.2-725.6.
* Copper prices fell as concerns of weak demand from top consumer China were stoked by the country's disappointing factory data.
* China's factory activity slipped into contraction in August for the first time in nearly 1-1/2 years
* Chile's Codelco reaches new agreement with union workers

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled down by -0.69% at 243.1 after data showed that factory activity slowed in August across swathes of Europe and Asia. In China, by far the biggest metals consumer, manufacturing contracted for the first time in nearly 1-1/2 years. China's state reserves administration successfully released a total of 150,000 tonnes of copper, aluminium and zinc into the market, it said, completing its third round of metal auctions. The National Food and Strategic Reserves Administration added that it would continue to release metal reserves based on market supply, demand and prices. The global zinc market was undersupplied by 20,200 tonnes in June following a revised deficit of 23,500 tonnes in May, data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) showed. Previously, the ILZSG had reported a deficit of 17,900 tonnes in May. During the first six months of 2021, the ILZSG data showed the market saw a surplus of 36,000 tonnes, down from a surplus of 385,000 tonnes in the same period of 2020. Asia’s factory activity lost momentum in August as a resurgence in coronavirus cases disrupted supply chains across the region, raising concerns faltering manufacturing will add to the economic woes caused by slumping consumption. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.2% to settled at 1010 while prices down -1.7 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 242.1 and below same could see a test of 241.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 244.4, a move above could see prices testing 245.7.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 241.1-245.7.
* Zinc prices fell after data showed that factory activity slowed in August across swathes of Europe and Asia.
* In China, by far the biggest metals consumer, manufacturing contracted for the first time in nearly 1-1/2 years.
* China's state reserves administration successfully released a total of 150,000 tonnes of copper, aluminium and zinc into the market.

Nickel

Nickel yesterday settled down by -1% at 1431.6 in light of a disappointing reading of China PMI for August and hawkish signals sent out by the European Central Bank. The premium for LME cash nickel over the three-month contract has risen above $40 a tonne from about zero a week ago, pointing to tighter supply of quickly deliverable metal. On the fundamentals, nickel ore prices maintained momentum, supporting ferronickel prices combined with tightened supply and demand from steel mills. New energy sector is still in demand of nickel as the inventories already disclosed were comparatively low, favouring nickel prices. China’s factory activity slipped into contraction in August for the first time in nearly 1-1/2 years as COVID-19 containment measures, supply bottlenecks and high raw material prices weighed on output in a blow to the economy. Japan’s factory activity expanded at a slower rate in August as a resurgence of coronavirus cases in Asia disrupted supply chains across the region, sinking overseas orders into contraction for the first time in seven months. Manufacturers withstood the pandemic’s hit in part thanks to their positive outlook for the coming twelve months, even as the highly infectious COVID-19 Delta variant is pushing countries in Asia-Pacific back into lockdown mode. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.06% to settled at 1596 while prices down -14.4 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 1422.1 and below same could see a test of 1412.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1443.6, a move above could see prices testing 1455.7.

Trading Ideas:
* Nickel trading range for the day is 1412.7-1455.7.
* Nickel prices dropped in light of a disappointing reading of China PMI for August and hawkish signals sent out by the European Central Bank.
* The premium for LME cash nickel over the three-month contract has risen above $40 a tonne from about zero a week ago
* Japan’s factory activity expanded at a slower rate in August as a resurgence of coronavirus cases in Asia disrupted supply chains across the region

Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -0.63% at 211.5 as Asia’s factory activity lost momentum in August as a resurgence in coronavirus cases disrupted supply chains across the region, raising concerns faltering manufacturing will add to the economic woes caused by slumping consumption. Manufacturing activity in August expanded at a slower rate in Japan, South Korea and Taiwan as chip shortages and factory shutdowns disrupted production, in a fresh sign of the lingering impact of the pandemic, surveys showed. China’s factory activity slipped into contraction in August for the first time in nearly 1-1/2 years as COVID-19 containment measures, supply bottlenecks and high raw material prices weighed on output. The bidding for the third batch of national reserves completed, and the highest bid price stood at 20271 yuan/mt in Anhui. The current batch (70000 mt) is expected to supplement the short supply of aluminium but with minimal effect. Aluminium stocks at three major Japanese ports fell 11.1% to 274,900 tonnes at end-July, from 309,100 tonnes end-June. On the macro front, US consumer confidence index in August fell to six-month low due to Delta variant. U.S. manufacturing activity unexpectedly picked up in August amid strong order growth, but a measure of factory employment dropped to a nine-month low, likely as workers remained scarce. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -14.59% to settled at 1803 while prices down -1.35 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 210 and below same could see a test of 208.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 213.3, a move above could see prices testing 215.

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 208.4-215.
* Aluminium dropped as Asia’s factory activity lost momentum in August as a resurgence in coronavirus cases disrupted supply chains across the region
* The bidding for the third batch of national reserves completed, and the highest bid price stood at 20271 yuan/mt in Anhui.
* US consumer confidence index in August fell to six-month low due to Delta variant.
 

Mentha oil 

Mentha oil yesterday settled up by 0.34% at 936.5 on low level buying after prices dropped as average yield in Barabanki is improved by 5-6 kgs per acre due to better weather. Pressure seen arrivals likely to increase due to favourable weather conditions. Daily arrivals should gradually pick up to 400-500 drums in next 7-10 days. Last week, prices rallied. The Lucknow-based Central Institute of Medicinal and Aromatic Plants estimates that this adverse effect of rains on the crop is expected to reduce production by 30% in the last two weeks. The crop is prone to rain because the leaves of the crop start falling due to waterlogging in the field. Most of the farmers have planted Mentha crops and this rain is not less than acid for 50 percent of Mentha crop. Last month, support seen due to the rotting of the crop due to stagnant water in the field. The past few weeks have been painful as heavy rains in the pre-monsoon season have damaged the mentha crop which was ready for harvesting. Due to drowning in the water, the rows have started to wither. With the harvesting of the crop, oil extraction work has also started. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained by 41.6 Rupees to end at 1081.2 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.08% to settled at 1222 while prices up 3.2 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 930.3 and below same could see a test of 924 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 940.7, a move above could see prices testing 944.8.

Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 924-944.8.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained  by 41.6 Rupees to end at 1081.2 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil  gained on low level buying after prices dropped as average yield in Barabanki improved
* Pressure seen arrivals likely to increase due to favourable weather conditions.
* The past few weeks have been painful as heavy rains in the pre-monsoon season have damaged the mentha crop which was ready for harvesting.
 

Soyabean

Soyabean yesterday settled up by 3.47% at 8279 as in Marathwada, there were concerns about mosaic virus, as well as infestation of pink and American bollworm. Meanwhile, soybean has now overtaken cotton to become the number one crop in the state and has been sown on 44.73 lakh hectares. In recent sessions prices trading with weakness since last week after Brazil said that they will be reducing there mandatory bio-diesel blend to 10% from 12%. The latest USDA release is slightly bearish, and as per the report the 2021/22 global oilseed supply and demand forecasts include lower production, crush, exports, and slightly higher ending stocks compared to last month. Foreign oilseed production is reduced 3.6 million tons to 501.4 million, reflecting lower canola production for Canada and sunflower seed for Russia. The 2021/22 global oilseed supply and demand forecasts, as reported in the latest USDA release include lower production, crush, exports, and slightly higher ending stocks compared to last month. India has relaxed import rules to allow shipments of 1.2 million tonnes of genetically modified (GMD) soymeal, the government said, a move that could help the poultry industry after animal feed prices tripled in a year. At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained 194 Rupees to 9206 Rupees per 100 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3% to settled at 16165 while prices up 278 rupees, now Soyabean is getting support at 8047 and below same could see a test of 7814 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 8417, a move above could see prices testing 8554.

Trading Ideas:

*  Soyabean trading range for the day is 7814-8554.
* Soyabean gained as in Marathwada, there were concerns about mosaic virus, as well as infestation of pink and American bollworm.
* As per the USDA report the 2021/22 global oilseed supply and demand forecasts include lower production, crush, exports
* Brazil said that they will be reducing there mandatory bio-diesel blend to 10% from 12%.
* At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained  194 Rupees to 9206 Rupees per 100 kgs.

Soyaoil 

Ref.Soyaoil yesterday settled down by -0.88% at 1372.9 amid reports of Brazil harvesting a bigger crop from last year and India to allow soymeal import. The Government has reduced the import duty of Soyadegum oil to 7.50 percent from 15 percent earlier. Edible oil prices are likely to remain elevated till the arrival of new crop in the October-November period, industry officials said. The rates are unlikely to come down anytime soon as India meets more than half of domestic demand through imports, BV Mehta, executive director, Solvent Extractors Association of India (SEA) said. The soybean oil price has surged due to efforts of making renewable bio-diesel fuel from it in the US, Brazil and other countries. Total oilseeds production in the country during 2020-21 is estimated at record 36.10 million tonnes which is higher by 2.88 million tonnes than the production during 2019-20. Further, the production of oilseeds during 2020-21 is higher by 5.56 million tonnes than the average oilseeds production of 30.55 million tonnes. India's imports of sunflower oil could rise to a record in 2021/22 as potential bumper crops in Russia and Ukraine pull prices below rival soyoil, making it lucrative for price-sensitive buyers from the subcontinent, industry officials said. At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1399.6 Rupees per 10 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -9.3% to settled at 26145 while prices down -12.2 rupees, now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 1364 and below same could see a test of 1355 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1388, a move above could see prices testing 1403.

Trading Ideas:
* Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 1355-1403.
* Ref soyoil dropped amid reports of Brazil harvesting a bigger crop from last year and India to allow soymeal import.
* The Government has reduced the import duty of Soyadegum oil to 7.50 percent from 15 percent earlier.
* Edible oil prices are likely to remain elevated till the arrival of new crop in the October-November period, industry officials said.
* At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1399.6 Rupees per 10 kgs.
 

Crude palm Oil 

Crude palm Oil yesterday settled down by -0.9% at 1128.8 as exports of Malaysian palm oil products for August fell 15.8 percent to 1,213,126 tonnes from 1,440,096 tonnes shipped during July, cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services. Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for Aug. 1-25 fell 13.1 percent to 999,668 tonnes from 1,150,452 tonnes shipped during Jul. 1-25, cargo surveyor Societe Generale de Surveillance said. Indonesia's plans to raise the mandatory bio-content in its palm oil-based biodiesel to 40% may face further delays, after the high price of the vegetable oil has made the programme too costly, a senior government official told. Indonesia set its crude palm oil (CPO) export reference price 13% higher in September, Musdhalifah Machmud, the deputy minister for food and agriculture, told. September's CPO is set at $1,185.26 per tonne, up from $1,048.62 a month earlier. This means that the export tax for the edible oil has jumped from $93 per tonne in August to $166 in September. Export levies for CPO, however, remain the same at $175 per tonne. In spot market, Crude palm oil dropped by -1.2 Rupees to end at 1194.8 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 3.36% to settled at 3970 while prices down -10.3 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 1120.8 and below same could see a test of 1112.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1141.4, a move above could see prices testing 1154.

Trading Ideas:
* CPO trading range for the day is 1112.8-1154.
* Crude palm oil dropped as Malaysia's Aug palm oil exports fall 15.8 percent
* Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for August fell 15.8 percent to 1,213,126 tonnes from 1,440,096 tonnes shipped during July
* Slow palm oil output growth to lift Malaysia's 2021 average prices to 3,600 rgt/T – MPOB
* In spot market, Crude palm oil dropped  by -1.2 Rupees to end at 1194.8 Rupees.

Mustard Seed

Mustard Seed yesterday settled down by -0.7% at 8141 on profit booking after prices gained amid regular demand from the stockists and lowering all India arrivals. In their August report, analysts from the IGC lowered their forecast for the world rapeseed production to 70.9 million tons (-2.2 compared to July and 72.1 compared to 2020/21). The rapeseed production in Canada will be 16 million tons (-2.8 and 18.7), 4.5 million tons in Australia (4.2 and 4.1), 2.8 million tons in Ukraine (2.7 and 2.7). USDA estimates Canada rapeseed production for marketing year 2021/22 at 16.0 million metric tons (mmt), down 4.2 mmt (21 percent) from last month, 3.0 mmt (16 percent) from last year, and 20 percent below the 5-year average. Harvested area is estimated at 8.7 million hectares, down 3 percent from last month, but 4 percent above last year, and roughly equivalent to the 5-year average. The month-to-month decrease in area is due to the expectation of weather-related abandonment with prospects for hay being the best use. Yield is estimated at 1.84 metric tons per hectare, down 18 percent from last month and 20 percent below the 5-year average. There were reports that the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) will recommend lowering the nation's biofuel blending mandates. In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 141.6 Rupees to end at 8355 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -10.19% to settled at 18940 while prices down -57 rupees, now Rmseed is getting support at 8099 and below same could see a test of 8057 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 8194, a move above could see prices testing 8247.

Trading Ideas:
* Rmseed trading range for the day is 8057-8247.
* Rmseed dropped on profit booking after prices gained amid regular demand from the stockists and lowering all India arrivals.
* In their August report, the IGC lowered their forecast for the world rapeseed production to 70.9 million tons.
* USDA estimates Canada rapeseed production for marketing year 2021/22 at 16.0 million metric tons (mmt), down 4.2 mmt (21 percent) from last month.
* In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 141.6 Rupees to end at 8355 Rupees per 100 kg.

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled down by -1.6% at 7894 on profit booking as India is likely to receive above average rainfall in September, helping millions of farmers who had to endure patchy rains in July and August. Some support seen in recent period following export demand from Europe, Gulf countries and Bangladesh. Turmeric crops were severely damaged in Parbhani and Hingole due to heavy rains. India is on course to having a normal monsoon, which will recharge the country’s main water reservoirs just enough, and ensure that the most important crops for the kharif season have normal sowing. This is good news for agricultural production and food prices. Pressure also seen as the lockdown restrictions were eased the key Turmeric growing states, including Maharashtra and Telangana reported noticeable increase in mandi arrivals, which augmented physical market supplies and pressurized prices. Mandi arrivals of Turmeric, at all-India level, more than doubled in June 2021 compared to the previous month supported by substantial increase in arrivals in Maharashtra and Telangana. According to the statistics of the Department of Commerce, Government of India, the highest number of 1.84 lakh tonnes of turmeric was exported during the last financial year 2020-21. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7526.2 Rupees dropped -92.55 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -6.27% to settled at 10010 while prices down -128 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7828 and below same could see a test of 7760 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7996, a move above could see prices testing 8096.

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 7760-8096.
* Turmeric dropped on profit booking as India is likely to receive above average rainfall in September
* Turmeric crops were severely damaged in Parbhani and Hingole due to heavy rains.
* India is on course to having a normal monsoon, which will recharge the country’s main water reservoirs just enough.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7526.2 Rupees dropped -92.55 Rupees.
 

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled down by -0.03% at 14435 on profit booking after prices gained due to the forecast of drought in Gujarat-Rajasthan by Skymet. With Gujarat and Rajasthan being the only producers of cumin in the country, the most impact of Skymet's forecast is visible on the cumin market. The export of cumin is increasing continuously and in the coming days there are signs of increasing the export of cumin in a big way. However, the freight of container-vessels has increased and the shortage of containers is increasing continuously. Despite this, exporters are now exporting by bargaining at FOB price and in some cases the freight of both side containers is being settled. The export of cumin seeds from Turkey and Syria was visible in the international market in July-August every year, due to which the export of Indian cumin decreased after July-August, but due to the very bad condition of cumin crop exports cannot be dome from these two countries in the current year. On the contrary, importers from Syria and Turkey are currently buying cumin seeds from India. There is a lack of rainfall in the cumin growing centers of Rajasthan and Gujarat and due to higher prices of other commodities than cumin in Rabi season, there is a perception that the sowing of cumin is low. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -167.5 Rupees to end at 14573.7 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.36% to settled at 4839 while prices down -5 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 14290 and below same could see a test of 14150 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 14530, a move above could see prices testing 14630.

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 14150-14630.
* Jeera dropped on profit booking after prices gained due to the forecast of drought like conditions in Gujarat-Rajasthan.
* India's cumin exports will increase due to less supply from Afghanistan-Syrian
* Export of cumin is expected to reach a record level of 2.50 to 2.75 lakh tonnes in the current year
# In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -167.5 Rupees to end at 14573.7 Rupees per 100 kg.

Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled up by 0.83% at 25500 as consumption by mills is strong and there is good demand for yarn. The Centre has fixed an MSP for medium staple cotton at Rs 5,716 per quintal for the 2021-22 season, higher than the previous year’s Rs 5,515. For the long-staple cotton, the MSP for 2021-22 has been fixed at Rs. 6,025 per quintal, against Rs 5,825 in the previous year. Around 19 quintals of raw cotton has arrived in Bathinda grain market with the starting of the week. The cotton prices are higher and farmers are getting Rs.300-400 per quintal more than the MSP. Cotton Corporation of India is expected to enter the market in October for the new season. The low pressure creating in Bay of Bengal will bring good rain in Gujarat and adjourning parts of Rajasthan. A much needed for the standing kharif crop. Cotton production will still be high because of good rains and may touch 350-360 lakh bales despite the area under coverage has gone down by 6-8%, from 133 lakh hectares last year to 125 lakh hectares in the current season. In the domestic market prices are capped as higher supplies in the Gujarat & Maharashtra spot markets due to easing lockdown. In spot market, Cotton dropped by -10 Rupees to end at 26750 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 2.56% to settled at 1721 while prices up 210 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 25270 and below same could see a test of 25030 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 25680, a move above could see prices testing 25850.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Cotton trading range for the day is 25030-25850.
* Cotton prices remained supported as consumption by mills is strong and there is good demand for yarn.
* Cotton ginners across the country are hopeful of a better season in 2021-22
* New cotton arrivals have started in Bathinda Mandi
* In spot market, Cotton dropped  by -10 Rupees to end at 26750 Rupees.

Chana

Chana yesterday settled down by -2.89% at 5003 as demand is likely to recover in the second half of 2021, as festivals and weddings are likely to boost retail purchases in the fourth quarter. Also from 15th August many states in India are facing long-awaited relaxations from Independence Day on Sunday. Malls can now reopen, while restaurants, gyms, salons and spas are permitted to function at 50% capacity till 10pm, helping ease livelihoods. Meanwhile support also seen after the release of all India pulses sowing data on Friday, revealed that all India, about 126.98 lakh ha area coverage has been reported compared to corresponding week’s 127.40 lakh ha. Thus 0.42 lakh ha less i.e 0.33% area has been covered compared to last year. Last week PM Narendra Modi released the ninth installment of financial benefit under Pradhan Mantri Kisan Samman Nidhi (PM-KISAN), enabling the transfer of more than Rs 19,500 crore to more than 9.75 crore beneficiaries which will raise the sentiments among the Farmers. In Delhi spot market, chana dropped by -40.4 Rupees to end at 5159.6 Rupees per 100 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -10.12% to settled at 52650 while prices down -149 rupees, now Chana is getting support at 4954 and below same could see a test of 4905 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5096, a move above could see prices testing 5189.

Trading Ideas:
* Chana trading range for the day is 4905-5189.
* Chana gained as demand is likely to recover in the second half of 2021, as festivals and weddings are likely to boost retail purchases
* The production of pulses has been increasing during the last three years and the target for 2021-2022 has been set at 23 LMT
* India is likely to receive an average amount of rainfall in August and September, the state-run weather office said
* In Delhi spot market, chana dropped  by -40.4 Rupees to end at 5159.6 Rupees per 100 kgs.

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