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Rupee Outlook and Strategy

• US dollar decline yesterday on a rise in risk appetite in the global markets and fall in longer dated US treasury yields. However, further downside was cushioned as yield on short term treasury climbed after inflation data showed prices rose firmly and FOMC meeting minutes confirm tapering will begin soon

• Rupee future maturing on October 27 appreciated by 0.16% in yesterday’s trading session on weakness in dollar and FII inflows. Further, rupee gained strength on improved macroeconomic data

• The rupee is expected to appreciate on a weak dollar and rise in risk appetite in domestic markets. Further, improved macroeconomic will continue to support rupee. However, sharp upside may be capped as US FOMC meeting minutes showed most policymakers are of the view that provided economic recovery remain broadly on track a gradual tapering process that concludes around middle of 2022 would likely be appropriate

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