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Rupee Outlook and Strategy

* The US dollar index fell almost 0.57% on Monday to its lowest level in a month amid boost in dollar funding by Fed and other central banks. Further easing concerns of banking fears after UBS proposed to take over Credit Suisse lifted global equities. Also, dovish comments from the Atlanta Fed President R Bostic also weakened the dollar. He said the central bank could pause rate hikes in this summer

* Rupee future maturing on March 28 remains unchanged at 82.62

* The US$INR is likely to decline towards the immediate support of 82.40 amid weakness in dollar. The US dollar is expected to remain under pressure amid speculation that the Fed may dial back its quantitative tightening programme. US$INR is hovering in the band of 82.40-82.90. It is expected to breach the lower band of the consolidation and decline towards the next key support at 82.10. Only a move above 82.90 would change the direction

Euro and Pound Outlook

* The Euro extended its gain by almost 0.50% on Monday amid weakness in dollar and easing European banking concerns after UBS agreed to buy Credit Suisse in a $3.2 billion deal. Further hawkish comments from the ECB Governing Council members has also supported the pair as Mr Kazak focused on further action of ECB amid higher inflationary pressure. Further, improved trade balance numbers in the Euro area has supported the pair to go past 1.07

* The Euro is expected to approach towards higher band of the consolidation range 1.0750-1.063 amid weakness in the dollar. The pair is hovering above the bullish cross over of 10 and 20 day EMA support at 1.067, 1.063 respectively. EURINR (March) is likely to hold the support of 10 day EMA at 87.90 and rise back towards 88.90

* The pound hit the highest level in a month and rallied towards 1.227 amid weakness in dollar. Further higher numbers in Rightmove HPI MoM numbers, which gained by 0.8% in last month has also helped the pair to gain

* The pound is likely to trade on bullish note as the flight to safety eased. Further, expectation of rise in interest rate by BoE could also support the pair. The bullish crossover of 10 and 20 day EMA is going to support the bull case. Additionally the rise in the RSI above the 50 mark would also push the pair to go past 1.23. Immediate support for the pair exists near 1.22. GBPINR (March) is likely to rise towards 101.70, as long as it trades above 100.50

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