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Quote on Rupee 09 September  By Ms. Sugandha Sachdeva, VP- Commodity & Currency Research, Religare Broking Ltd

The Indian rupee has been trading in a narrow range subsequent to a depreciating streak witnessed from the crucial 78.50 resistance level in the last few days. The domestic currency is seen reacting to mixed variables as of now. On one hand, we have renewed inflows in the domestic equities and crude oil prices are also trading subdued which are the key tailwinds supporting a positive outlook for the rupee-dollar exchange rate. However, on the other hand, bets have increased for a steep path of monetary tightening by the US all over again after the strong US jobs report for July. Meanwhile, the US headline inflation numbers for July will provide further guidance about the interest rate hike trajectory in the coming months and steer the path for the Indian rupee. There are hopes that inflation in the US has eased to an annual rate of 8.7% in July amid lower pump prices, following a red-hot inflation reading of 9.1% (Y-o-Y) in June which prompted the Fed towards another large interest rate hike of 75bps at its July meeting. Looking ahead, the near-term bias remains positive for the local unit as long as it manages to hold above the sacrosanct 80 to the dollar mark.

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