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Rupee Post Biggest one day fall in ten months on Geopolitical Tensions -  HDFC Securities 

Rupee expected to open higher on back of short covering and recovery in Wall streets. On Thursday, spot USDINR surged 1.5% or 109 paise to 75.65, the biggest one day gain since April 07, 2021 following risk averse sentiments, higher crude oil and month end dollar demand from oil importers. Brent crude oil prices surged post $100 a barrel after Russian forces attacked targets across Ukraine in a big escalation of the conflict. Higher price of oil would hurt Indian economies via higher inflation, weaker current account and fiscal balances. This could force central bank to tighten policy

Technically, spot USDINR taken support at 200 days Simple moving average of 74.30 and back near month high of 75.72. The pair is having resistance near 75.75, historical it had reversed four times in last one year. Looking at the forward market this could be the fifth time it might fall again.

Asian Stocks may get a tailwind today from a revival in U.S. shares and a cooling oil rally amid pronounced market swings as traders monitor the Ukraine situation

A gauge of the dollar’s strength had its largest intraday gain in nearly two years on Thursday as markets grappled with the biggest security threat in Europe in decades. On the continent, the euro dropped to a nearly seven-year low against the Swiss franc as investors flocked to haven assets. The pair dropped as much as 1%, the largest slide in more than three years, before rebounding slightly

In recent weeks, central-bank officials have acknowledged that the escalating tensions between Russia and NATO allies over Ukraine will affect the outlook for energy prices. Now they need to weigh the economic consequences of measures to isolate Russia against higher inflation.

Technical Observations:

USDINR March futures Bullish Marubozu candlestick indicating positive trend

The pair is having rising trend line resistance at 76.25 and find support around 75.70.

It has reversed from the 200 DEMA support line.

Relative Strength Index of 14 days period placed above 50 and heading north indicating bullish momentum

MACD has been placed above zero line and flattening indicating consolidations

Fresh long has been seen with addition in price, volume and open interest

USDINR March futures expected to head north with resistance at 76.15 and support at 75.60.

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