IGI Logo

SEPTEMBER SERIES VIEW

Bulls extended their grip on Dalal Street in August expiry and closed with healthy gains. Positive global cues, fresh buying by foreign institutional investors (FIIs), and lower crude oil boosted investor confidence. The benchmark indices have slightly corrected from their recent peak, which was on expected lines. Finally, Nifty settled the expiry (EoE) on a positive note at 17522 with a gains of 593 points (EoE), indicating favorable bias for the short term. However, any uncertain move from the US Federal Reserve front, inflation risk, economy slowdown, and higher Dollar index will remain a concern for the markets. Thus, investors should remain cautious on the higher side. On the expiry day, the Nifty futures rollover stood at 82%, which is higher as compared with the last three series average rollover of 76%. Nifty will start the September series with an open interest of 1.14 Cr shares compared with an OI of 0.99 Cr shares at the beginning of the August series. Market-wide rollovers stood at 92% as compared with the average rollovers of 92% in the last three series. Going into September month, Covid-19 cases, monthly auto sales data, Rupee movement against the Dollar, the US Fed policy, Fiis flow, economic data, progress of monsoon and crude oil price movement will dictate the trend on the bourses next month.

DERIVATIVES INDICATORS

During the month, India VIX shoot up by 15.05% (EoE) and closed at 19.57% vs. 17.01% of the previous month, expecting market to remain volatile due to increasing fears of economic slowdown, geopolitical issues and Fed policy. Another leading derivatives indicator, Nifty PCR, opened on a lower note this month at 1.05 against last month’s 1.43.

BANKNIFTY

The index saw lower rolls of 83% as compared with the 3M average of 85%. BankNifty will start the September series with higher OI of 2.20 Mn shares as compared with OI of 2.05 Mn shares at the beginning of the August series. As per options data, support for the index stands around 37000 and 36000 whereas resistance stands at 40000 and 41000 for the short term.

OPTION ANALYSIS

From the OI Concentration (29-Sep Series), Maximum open Interest on the call options front exists at strike prices of 18000 and 18500 (with nearly 18.57 lacs and 12.59 lacs shares outstanding respectively). This indicates 18000 and 18500 levels will act as the resistance zone on the upside for the short term. On the put options front, Maximum open Interest is at strike prices of, 17500, 17000 and 16500 (with nearly, 22.33 lacs, 24.70 lacs and 28.72 lacs shares outstanding respectively) indicating 17000 and 16500 levels will be stronger support zone.

SECTOR/STOCK ROLLOVER ACTIVITY:

1. From the sectoral action, rollovers accelerated for INFRASTRUCTURE, METALS, CHEMICALS, OIL&GAS, POWER and REALTY, sectors in September expiry. However, low rollovers were seen in TELECOM, CAPITAL GOODS, CEMENT, TEXTILE and FMCG sectors stocks on expiry day as compared to three month’s average as highlighted in the chart.

2. Within the Nifty50 space, index heavyweights such as ONGC, UPL, BPCL, M&M, and COALINDIA saw aggressive rollover in the September series while low rolls were seen in NESTLEIND, BHARTIARTL, BAJAJFINSV, HDFCLIFE and TATACONSUM compared with the 3M average rollover.

3. From the midcap space, SUNTV, CUB, IBULHSGFIN, DELTACORP, and CONCOR saw high rollovers whereas CROMPTON, SRF, RAMCOCEM, TVSMOTOR, and MPHASIS saw lower rollover compared with the 3M average.

To Read Complete Report & Disclaimer Click Here

Please refer disclaimer at www.investmentz.com/disclaimer
SEBI Registration number is INZ000186336

Views express by all participants are for information & academic purpose only. Kindly read disclaimer before referring below views. Click Here For Disclaimer