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Gold

Gold yesterday settled down by -0.17% at 46827 as a drop in U.S. weekly initial jobless claims, ahead of the monthly jobs data later this week, boosted Treasury yields and stoked bets that the U.S. Federal Reserve may soon start winding down its economic support. The dollar held near a one-year high, buoyed by lingering inflation concerns and expectations the Fed would have to act sooner to normalise policy. Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard said the central bank should move forward with its efforts to gauge how banks might be impacted by climate change, saying such analysis will be a key tool in measuring risks. In a prepared speech, Brainard noted regulators face "substantial work" in closing data gaps and building new models to adequately gauge risks banks face from climate change. But while the Fed should be "humble" about any initial analysis that should not deter regulators from developing such tools. Investors see gold as a 'safe haven' in times of market volatility, just like those triggered by the COVID-19. That is why global demand for investment gold surged to all-time highs last year. Although global demand for investment gold recovered and hit 465.2 metric tons in the first half of 2021, that is still 60% less than in the same period a year ago. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.69% to settled at 13565 while prices down -80 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 46680 and below same could see a test of 46532 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 46983, a move above could see prices testing 47138.

Trading Ideas:
Gold trading range for the day is 46532-47138.
Gold fell as a drop in U.S. weekly initial jobless claims, ahead of the monthly jobs data later this week
The dollar held near a one-year high, buoyed by lingering inflation concerns and expectations the Fed would have to act sooner to normalise policy.
Fed's Brainard says climate scenario analysis a key tool in measuring bank risks


Silver

Silver yesterday settled up by 0.42% at 61258 amid concerns over global growth and the broader economic impact of Chinese property developer Evergrande's debt crisis. Investors now await U.S nonfarm payrolls data due on Friday, which is expected to show the world's largest economy added 460 thousand jobs in September, more than the 235 thousand jobs added in August. The number of Americans filing new claims for jobless benefits dropped by the most in three months last week, suggesting the labor market recovery was regaining momentum after a recent slowdown, as the wave of COVID-19 infections began to subside. The weekly unemployment claims report from the Labor Department, the most timely data on the economy’s health, also showed the number of people on state unemployment rolls plunging to an 18-month low in late September. ECB policymakers discussed a bigger cut in asset purchases and some even argued that markets were already expecting an end of stimulus by March 2022, minutes from the ECB September monetary policy meeting showed. Still, the ECB concluded that a moderately lower pace of net asset purchases under the PEPP for the rest of the year would be appropriate, amid favourable financing conditions along with an improved medium-term outlook for inflation. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.49% to settled at 10798 while prices up 255 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 60758 and below same could see a test of 60258 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 61677, a move above could see prices testing 62096.

Trading Ideas:
Silver trading range for the day is 60258-62096.
Silver remained supported amid concerns over global growth and the broader economic impact of Chinese property developer Evergrande's debt crisis.
U.S. weekly jobless claims post biggest drop in three months
Investors now await U.S nonfarm payrolls data, which is expected to show the economy added 460 thousand jobs in September


Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled up by 0.76% at 5860 as the US Energy Department said it has no plans to tap the nation’s oil reserves at the moment following a report suggesting it may have been considering that option to curb rising prices. U.S. Energy Information Administration showed crude stockpiles increased by 2.35 million barrels last week versus expectations for a drop of 418,000 barrels. Gasoline inventories increased by 3.26 million barrels in the week ended October 1, while distillates stockpiles dropped by 396,000 barrels in the week. OPEC+'s decision to stick with a plan to raise oil output modestly and gradually, despite prices surging to multi-year highs, was partly driven by concern that demand and prices could weaken. After seeing their income slide during the pandemic-induced demand and price collapse in 2020, the OPEC+ oil producers' alliance led by Russia and top exporter Saudi Arabia are enjoying the boost in revenues. OPEC+ brought in record production cuts of about 10 million barrels per day (bpd) in April 2020, or about 10% of global output, after restrictions around the world to curb the spread of the coronavirus paralysed oil demand and hit prices hard. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.4% to settled at 8389 while prices up 44 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 5684 and below same could see a test of 5507 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5961, a move above could see prices testing 6061.

Trading Ideas:
Crude oil trading range for the day is 5507-6061.
Crude oil gained as the US Energy Department said it has no plans to tap the nation’s oil reserves at the moment
OPEC+ caution and money behind reluctance to pump more oil
OPEC figures show 43% plunge in oil-export income in 2020


Natural gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -1.6% at 424 as global prices slid from record highs and U.S. utilities added more gas to storage than usual for a fourth week in a row. Big storage injections and rising U.S. output in recent weeks have convinced many in the market that the United States will have more than enough gas in inventory for the upcoming winter heating season. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said U.S. utilities added 118 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended Oct. 1. Russian President Vladimir Putin promised that the gas-rich nation would send more natural gas to Europe. But Putin said Russia could send more gas to Europe via Ukraine even more than contracted and are set to hit a record this year. Data provider Refinitiv said gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to an average of 91.9 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in October from 91.1 bcfd in September. Data provider Refinitiv said the amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants slipped from an average of 10.4 bcfd in September to 9.9 bcfd so far in October with short-term upsets at a few Gulf Coast plants and ongoing planned maintenance at Berkshire Hathaway Energy's Cove Point LNG export plant in Maryland. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -12.18% to settled at 4312 while prices down -6.9 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 407 and below same could see a test of 389.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 437.7, a move above could see prices testing 451.3.

Trading Ideas:
Natural gas trading range for the day is 389.9-451.3.
Natural gas slipped as global prices slid from record highs and U.S. utilities added more gas to storage than usual for a fourth week in a row.
Russian President Vladimir Putin promised that the gas-rich nation would send more natural gas to Europe.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration said U.S. utilities added 118 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended Oct. 1.



Copper

Copper yesterday settled up by 2.05% at 724.75 by a recovery on global equities markets, falling exchange inventories and the threat of supply disruption at a mine in Peru. An indigenous community in Peru's Espinar province that blocked a key mining road plans to continue the blockade indefinitely, in protest against the government and Glencore PLC's Antapaccay copper mine. The conflict comes a day after the government defused a similar standoff for MMG Ltd's Las Bambas mine. Earlier in the week, Brazilian miner Vale SA said the production of copper concentrate at its Salobo mine is suspended due to a fire affecting a conveyor belt. Stocks of the metal in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses were last at their lowest since June 2009, and LME on-warrant inventories slid to 90,725 tonnes, down 27% in just a week. Aiding sentiment, the U.S. Senate appeared to be nearing a temporary deal to avert a federal debt default in the next two weeks. China's foreign exchange reserves fell to $3.201 trillion at the end of September, down from $3.232 trillion at the end of August, official data showed. Chilean copper exports hit $4.157 billion in value in September, up 18.5% from a year earlier amid soaring global prices for the metal. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.03% to settled at 3930 while prices up 14.55 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 715.7 and below same could see a test of 706.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 729.8, a move above could see prices testing 734.8.

Trading Ideas:
Copper trading range for the day is 706.6-734.8.
Copper prices rose as supply concerns resurfaced in Peru, the world's second-biggest producer of the metal.
Brazilian miner Vale SA said the production of copper concentrate at its Salobo mine is suspended due to a fire affecting a conveyor belt.
Chilean copper exports hit $4.157 billion in value in September, up 18.5% from a year earlier amid soaring global prices for the metal.


Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled up by 1.5% at 260.15 as support seen after Mitsui Mining and Smelting Co Ltd , Japan's biggest zinc smelter, plans to produce 113,200 tonnes of refined zinc in the second half of the 2021/22 financial year to March 31, down 2.2% year on year, it said. Toho Zinc Co Ltd, Japan's third-biggest zinc smelter, plans to produce 47,800 tonnes of refined zinc in the second half of the 2021/22 financial year, up 1.9% from a year earlier, it said. Total zinc inventories across seven Chinese markets stood at 119,800 mt as of September 30, down 11,500 mt from September 27 and 9,400 mt from September 24. The inventory in Shanghai declined sharply amid increasing pre-holiday restocking by downstream plants. Guangdong saw a decrease in stocks as maintenance at smelters affected the shipments and downstream producers still have pre-holiday restocking demand. The global zinc market deficit narrowed to 6,600 tonnes in July from a revised deficit of 40,000 tonnes in June, data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) showed. Japan’s industrial output fell for the second straight month in August as COVID-19 outbreaks elsewhere in Asia disrupted supply chains for carmakers already facing headwinds from a prolonged chip shortage. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 12.73% to settled at 1550 while prices up 3.85 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 257.2 and below same could see a test of 254.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 261.8, a move above could see prices testing 263.4.

Trading Ideas:
Zinc trading range for the day is 254.2-263.4.
Zinc prices gained as support seen after Japan's Mitsui Mining expects 2.2% drop in H2 zinc output
Japan's Toho Zinc plans 1.9% increase in H2 zinc output
Total zinc inventories across seven Chinese markets stood at 119,800 mt as of September 30, down 11,500 mt from September 27


Nickel

Nickel yesterday settled up by 1.82% at 1434 as new orders for U.S.-made goods accelerated in August, pointing to sustained strength in manufacturing even as economic growth appeared to have slowed in the third quarter because of shortages of raw materials and labor. The implicit balance in the global nickel market is forecast to move to a surplus of 76,000 tonnes in 2022 from a deficit of 134,000 tonnes in 2021, International Nickel Study Group data showed. The difference between LME cash nickel and the three-month contract flipped to a discount of $1 a tonne after staying in premium since Aug. 25, indicating easing tightness in nearby inventories. Companies have cut output due to the impact of the domestic power rationing, leading to weak downstream stockpiling before the holidays. The SHFE/LME nickel price ratio inched lower from highs early last week, but rallied amid low inventory and market concerns over further inventory declines amid low prices. Nickel ore inventory at Chinese ports grew 143,000 wmt from a week earlier to 7.49 million wmt as of September 30. Total Ni content stood at 58,800 mt. Total inventory at seven major ports stood at around 3.68 million wmt, a decline of 37,000 wmt from Friday September 24. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -24.06% to settled at 1288 while prices up 25.6 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 1414.9 and below same could see a test of 1395.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1444.9, a move above could see prices testing 1455.7.

Trading Ideas:
Nickel trading range for the day is 1395.7-1455.7.
Nickel prices remained supported as new orders for U.S.-made goods accelerated in August
The difference between LME cash nickel and the three-month contract flipped to a discount of $1 a tonne after staying in premium since Aug. 25
The implicit balance in the global nickel market is forecast to move to a surplus of 76,000 tonnes in 2022 from a deficit of 134,000 tonnes in 2021


Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled up by 1.69% at 237.1 boosted by strong demand and large shortages created by China imposing production curbs on high-polluting industries such as smelting to cut power use and emissions. Prices of the metal used in the transport and packaging industries last month hit $3,000 a tonne, the highest since July 2008. A widespread power shortage in China has raised concerns of slower growth and demand as the government has focused on limiting use by energy-intensive industries to lessen the impact on households. The premium for aluminium shipments to Japanese buyers for October to December was set at $220 a tonne, up 19% from the previous quarter, reflecting higher overseas premiums amid tight supply. The figure is higher than the $185 per tonne paid in the July-September quarter and marks a fifth consecutive quarterly increase and the highest since the April-June quarter in 2015. But it came below the initial offers of $230-$250 made by producers. Japan is Asia's biggest importer of the light metal and the premiums for primary metal shipments it agrees to pay each quarter over the benchmark London Metal Exchange (LME) cash price set the benchmark for the region. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 13.04% to settled at 2575 while prices up 3.95 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 234.1 and below same could see a test of 231.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 239.1, a move above could see prices testing 241.2.

Trading Ideas:
Aluminium trading range for the day is 231.2-241.2.
Aluminium prices rallied boosted by strong demand and large shortages created by China imposing production curbs on high-polluting industries
A widespread power shortage in China has raised concerns of slower growth and demand
Japan Q4 aluminium premium climbs by 19% to $220/T


Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled up by 1.2% at 933 as support seen after India saw a slight in fresh Covid cases, with unlockdown ahead of festival season. Prices got support in last few weeks as due to crop failure and low recovery of oil, availability of Mentha oil will be low and demand from industries are expected to improve ahead of winter season. Speculation are also high that production this year will be lower as compare with last year because of two important factors. Major physical market player expects demand to sluggish for next few week as cash crunch seen in spot market, while expectations are high about demand improvement ahead of winter season starts. China is one of the biggest buyer for Indian Mentha, no much buying inquiry from China as mainland China and Hong Kong markets were shut. Speculation are also high that production this year will be lower as compare with last year because of two important factors. Firstly damages due to rain in key area and secondly farmers for the last 2 years where sowing mentha but due to not getting much profit at intervals there had been shift to other crops also. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained by 25.4 Rupees to end at 1065 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.5% to settled at 1248 while prices up 11.1 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 925.8 and below same could see a test of 918.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 937.7, a move above could see prices testing 942.3.

Trading Ideas:
Mentha oil trading range for the day is 918.5-942.3.
In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained  by 25.4 Rupees to end at 1065 Rupees per 360 kgs.
Mentha oil prices remained supported as support seen after India saw a slight in fresh Covid cases, with unlockdown ahead of festival season.
Prices got support in last few weeks as due to crop failure and low recovery of oil
Availability of Mentha oil will be low and demand from industries are expected to improve ahead of winter season.


Soyabean

Soyabean yesterday settled down by -1.74% at 5594 as higher U.S. stocks weighed on the market. Prices fell on pressure from larger-than-expected stocks reported on Thursday by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). There was additional pressure stemming from the ongoing U.S. harvest. The USDA reported Sept. 1 soybean stocks at 256 million bushels, above the entire range of trade estimates. The USDA said U.S. processors crushed 168.2 million bushels of soybeans in August, below an average of trade estimates for 169.0 million. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission's weekly commitments of traders report also showed that noncommercial traders, a category that includes hedge funds, raised their net-long position in soybeans. India's soybean production is estimated to be 10 million tonnes as compared to last year's 8.9 million tonnes. New season soybean has started arriving in the mandis and bulk buyers are cautious for aggressive buying before the arrival pressure builds up. Pressure also seen following a U.S. government report that showed larger-than-expected soybean inventory. U.S. Department of Agriculture said that Sept. 1 soybean stocks stood at 256 million bushels, down 51% from a year earlier but above a range of expectations. At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean dropped -97 Rupees to 5692 Rupees per 100 kgs.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 7.79% to settled at 56880 while prices down -99 rupees, now Soyabean is getting support at 5535 and below same could see a test of 5477 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5666, a move above could see prices testing 5739.

Trading Ideas:
Soyabean trading range for the day is 5477-5739.
Soyabean prices seen pressure as higher U.S. stocks weighed on the market.
Prices fell on pressure from larger-than-expected stocks reported by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA).
India's soybean production is estimated to be 10 million tonnes as compared to last year's 8.9 million tonnes.
At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean dropped  -97 Rupees to 5692 Rupees per 100 kgs.


Ref.Soyaoil

Ref.Soyaoil yesterday settled down by -2.11% at 1323.3 as import of edible oil has increased due to reduction in duty, which creating pressure on prices. Oilseeds output is also expected to be down a tad at 23.38 mt as soyabean production was affected by the patchy rains in the key producing States of Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh, respectively. Favorable weather over the weekend boosted U.S. harvest, while exports remain capped by terminals on the U.S. Gulf Coast that continue to struggle with power outages and hurricane-led damage as the country heads into its busiest export season. India's vegetable oil imports are likely to contract for the second straight year, the Solvent Extractors' Association of India (SEA) said. Imports in 2020/21 marketing year ending Oct. 31 could fall to 13.1 million tonnes, the lowest in six years, from last year's 13.2 million, B.V. Mehta, SEA executive director, said in a virtual conference. India's export of oilmeal, used as animal feed, declined 4 percent to 1,64,831 tonne in August from the year-ago period, in view of domestic shortage of the key oilmeal products. At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1364.65 Rupees per 10 kgs.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 28.53% to settled at 22640 while prices down -28.5 rupees, now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 1307 and below same could see a test of 1291 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1349, a move above could see prices testing 1375.

Trading Ideas:
Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 1291-1375.
Ref soyoil prices dropped as import of edible oil has increased due to reduction in duty
Oilseeds output is also expected to be down a tad at 23.38 mt as soyabean production was affected.
India’s Sept edible oil stocks at ports and pipelines rose 3.24 percent mom: SEA
At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1364.65 Rupees per 10 kgs.


Crude palm Oil

Crude palm Oil yesterday settled down by -2.52% at 1149.4 as demand was slow due to deep negative import and processing margins and surging inventories after record imports last month. The Malaysian Palm Oil Association estimated September production fell 1.44% from the month before to 1.68 million tonnes. Import demand for palm oil in 2021/22 is expected to edge higher on the back of favourable trade policies and as large-scale vaccination rollouts lift demand. Production is seen rising 2.8% to 1.75 million tonnes, while exports likely surged 39.8% to 1.63 million tonnes. China’s demand for Malaysian palm oil products set to rise. China's rapid development and changes in consumer behaviour will create more demand for Malaysian palm oil products in years to come. According to a report, palm oil stockpiles in Malaysia probably eased from a one-year high, as a strong recovery in exports countered a small rise in production. Data compiled by Bloomberg shows inventories fell 0.5% in September from the previous month to 1.866 million tonnes. The Malaysian Palm Oil Board will release official stockpiles, production and export data on Oct 11. In spot market, Crude palm oil dropped by -8.5 Rupees to end at 1188.2 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -7.74% to settled at 4683 while prices down -29.7 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 1126.7 and below same could see a test of 1104.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1177.2, a move above could see prices testing 1205.1.

Trading Ideas:
CPO trading range for the day is 1104.1-1205.1.
Crude palm oil dropped as demand was slow due to deep negative import and processing margins and surging inventories after record imports last month.
The Malaysian Palm Oil Association estimated September production fell 1.44% from the month before to 1.68 million tonnes.
Palm oil imports in China could be higher in 2022 onwards arising from a possible slowdown in soybean oil output.
In spot market, Crude palm oil dropped  by -8.5 Rupees to end at 1188.2 Rupees.


Mustard Seed

Mustard Seed yesterday settled down by -0.83% at 8434 after update Strategie Grains has increased its monthly forecast for this year's European Union rapeseed harvest to 17.03 million tonnes from 16.93 million. The latest estimate would be 2.5% above 2020's output of 16.61 million tonnes, it said. The arrival of mustard has increased across the country. The purchase of crushing plants has slowed down due to the new arrival of soybean in the mandis. On the other hand, import of edible oil has increased due to reduction in duty, which has also put pressure on mustard. However downside seen limited due to deficient stocks and peak consumption season. Mustards stocks dwindle to 30Lakh tonnes with about 5-6 months remaining for new arrival season. Statistics Canada cut its canola production estimate to a 13-year low, due to drought. Prices seen supported as Government has increased the Mustard seed MSP from 4650.00 to 5050 i.e Rs.400 per quintal for RMS 2022-23. Support also seen amid regular demand from the stockists and lowering all India arrivals. In their August report, the IGC lowered their forecast for the world rapeseed production to 70.9 million tons (-2.2 compared to July and 72.1 compared to 2020/21). In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices dropped -75.75 Rupees to end at 8606.25 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 4.43% to settled at 40350 while prices down -71 rupees, now Rmseed is getting support at 8387 and below same could see a test of 8339 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 8499, a move above could see prices testing 8563.

Trading Ideas:
Rmseed trading range for the day is 8339-8563.
Mustard seed prices dropped after update Strategie Grains has increased this year's EU rapeseed harvest forecast to 17.03 million tonnes.
The arrival of mustard has increased across the country.
The purchase of crushing plants has slowed down due to the new arrival of soybean in the mandis.
In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices dropped -75.75 Rupees to end at 8606.25 Rupees per 100 kg.



Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled down by -0.41% at 7268 amid prospects of better crop this kharif season along with tepid demand. However downside seen limited following export demand from Europe, Gulf countries and Bangladesh. The areas where turmeric has been sown have received adequate rainfall and are expected to produce well in the next season. Turmeric crops were severely damaged in Parbhani and Hingole due to heavy rains. India is on course to having a normal monsoon, which will recharge the country’s main water reservoirs just enough, and ensure that the most important crops for the kharif season have normal sowing. This is good news for agricultural production and food prices. Pressure also seen as the lockdown restrictions were eased the key Turmeric growing states, including Maharashtra and Telangana reported noticeable increase in mandi arrivals, which augmented physical market supplies and pressurized prices. In the first 7 months of 2021, turmeric exports declined by 16% to 90,133 tonnes compared to the same period last year, but nearly 10% higher than the 5-year average. There may be concerns about crop damage due to excess rain in major producing states due to Cyclone Gulab. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7125 Rupees gained 16.65 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 14.54% to settled at 5395 while prices down -30 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7220 and below same could see a test of 7170 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7328, a move above could see prices testing 7386.

Trading Ideas:
Turmeric trading range for the day is 7170-7386.
Turmeric dropped amid prospects of better crop this kharif season along with tepid demand.
In the first 7 months of 2021, turmeric exports declined by 16% to 90,133 tonnes compared to the same period last year
The areas where turmeric has been sown have received adequate rainfall and are expected to produce well.
In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7125 Rupees gained 16.65 Rupees.


Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled down by -0.03% at 14525 as the sowing of cumin seeds in Gujarat and Rajasthan may increase due to normal rains in the western region. In 2021 (January-July), the country has exported more than 1.75 lakh tonnes of cumin as compared to 1.67 lakh tonnes in the same period last year. Pressure also seen as adequate stock with traders and farmers may keeping prices under pressure at higher levels. However downside seen limited as the export of cumin is increasing continuously and in the coming days there are signs of increasing the export of cumin in a big way. In 2021 (January-June), the country has exported more than 1.50 lakh tonnes of cumin as compared to 1.3 lakh tonnes in the same period last year. Purchase of cumin seeds from African and Middle East countries will be diverted from other countries to India this year. Recent estimates state that cumin production has slumped by 60% in Iran’s Razavi Khorasan Province due to severe drought and unusually cold weather coupled with an early spring. Rainfall ranges 63% lower than last year this season so far. Extensive crop losses seen, the early onset of spring in February also caused serious damage to production. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -37.1 Rupees to end at 14256.25 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 8.23% to settled at 4536 while prices down -5 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 14450 and below same could see a test of 14375 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 14650, a move above could see prices testing 14775.

Trading Ideas:
Jeera trading range for the day is 14375-14775.
Jeera prices dropped as the sowing of cumin seeds in Gujarat and Rajasthan may increase
Pressure also seen as adequate stock with traders and farmers may keeping prices under pressure at higher levels.
In 2021 (January-July), the country has exported more than 1.75 lakh tonnes of cumin
In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -37.1 Rupees to end at 14256.25 Rupees per 100 kg.


Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled up by 0.17% at 29920 as heavy rain coupled with strong winds damaged cotton crop in Bathinda and Mansa districts. Farmers said they were already suffering due to the pink bollworm attack and the bad weather would hit them further as the harvest would be delayed. They are worried as Combine Harvesters are not suited to harvest flattened crop. The higher moisture content in the crop, too, is another cause for concern for the farmers now. The untimely rain will delay wheat-sowing as well. Textile exports from India have surged as companies rush to tap the increased demand for cotton and yarn across the world amid a decline in supplies from China. Exports of cotton yarn grew 5.5 percent to about 1 million tonnes during FY21 and shipments spiked by about 60 percent to 448,000 tonnes during April-July this year. High demand for cotton and the supply shortfall have also led to a spike in cotton prices, which are at a decade high globally. In earlier forecasts, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) have come out with a better harvest versus previous year. Cotton is grown around 4.8 lakh hectares in the state of Punjab. In spot market, Cotton gained by 200 Rupees to end at 28220 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 3.72% to settled at 2091 while prices up 50 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 29270 and below same could see a test of 28620 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 30680, a move above could see prices testing 31440.

Trading Ideas:
Cotton trading range for the day is 28620-31440.
Cotton prices gained as heavy rain coupled with strong winds damaged cotton crop in Bathinda and Mansa districts.
Textile exports from India have surged as companies rush to tap the increased demand across the world amid a decline in supplies from China.
High demand for cotton and the supply shortfall have also led to a spike in cotton prices, which are at a decade high globally
In spot market, Cotton gained  by 200 Rupees to end at 28220 Rupees

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