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Below View On RBI Monetary policy By Mr. Sampath Reddy, Chief Investment Officer, Bajaj Allianz Life Insurance

RBI hiked the repo rate by 35 bps to 6.25% (highest since August 2018), in line with the market expectation. However, the RBI kept the policy stance unchanged at “withdrawal of accommodation” although some segments of the market were expecting a change in stance.

Also, FY23 CPI inflation forecast remained unchanged at 6.7% and RBI highlighted that the stickiness of core inflation continues to prevail. The GDP forecast for FY23 was lowered to 6.8% from 7%, but the governor emphasized that India remains one of the fastest growing major economies along with sound financial stability. We believe this strong positioning of India will help us in dealing with the prevailing global inflation-growth challenges better.

Overall, the policy seemed slightly hawkish on the margin and indicated that there may be space for further tightening, although it will depend on the inflation trajectory and the terminal rate for the US Federal Reserve. RBI governor also mentioned that market participants must wean themselves away from the overhang of liquidity surpluses which means market should be prepared for further tighter  liquidity condition. Post the policy announcement bond yields hardened a bit. With corporate bonds spreads still being very tight, we may witness some increase going forward. We prefer the short-medium term part of the yield curve.

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