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Sensex (65783) / Nifty (19527)

The weak Asian bourses led to a sluggish start for our market, wherein the benchmark index Nifty50 opened with a decent gap down and kept plunging lower throughout the day. The bulls remained on the sidelines and refrained from any attempt to come back at any technical support until the penultimate hour, where a modest recovery was seen, which pared down some of the losses. Amidst the strong sell-off, the Nifty50 index ended the day with a loss of over a percent and managed to settle above the 19500 level.

Technically, the bears mark their presence with the benchmark index plunging below the 20 DEMA, followed by the pivotal support of 19500 one after the other. The sell-off shook the market sentiments with breadth on the lower end. On the technical front, Nifty was able to recoup from the lows and managed to safeguard its pivotal support; however, a dent has been put in the ongoing trend. As far as levels are concerned, 19500 proved its mettle, and until a decisive breakthrough is not seen, we may remain out of the concerned zone. On the downside, a series of supports could be seen starting from 19500- 19400-19300, while sacrosanct support is placed at the bullish gap of 19230 odd zone. On the higher end, the bearish gap of 19678- 19704 is likely to act as the immediate hurdle, followed by 19800 in the comparable period.

Going ahead, we need to stay vigilant on the global bourses, especially the US markets, and their reactions over the concerns of fiscal deterioration which might direct the near-term trend for global markets. Primarily the structure remains buoyant and such corrections in a bullish market are considered to be healthy. For the time being, we need to avoid aggressive trades and wait for some stability to resume trades.

Nifty Bank Outlook (44996)

Bank Nifty commenced the day with a gap down opening and, despite an initial attempt of recovery, the prices remained under pressure throughout the first half of the session. The selling pressure persisted during the second half, but during the penultimate hour, there was a notable rebound that helped prices regain some of the lost ground. Eventually, the prices concluded with a cut of 1.31%, to end tad below the 45000 mark. Following three lackluster days, the high beta index finally showed some momentum, albeit on the negative side.

The encouraging aspect was the late-session recovery; however, it's concerning that prices have broken below key short-term support levels, indicating distortion on the charts. The daily chart reveals a breach below the trend line connecting major higher bottoms, and the closure below the 20 EMA that is accompanied by a bearish gap. The weakness witnessed yesterday was largely influenced by global cues, and if this trend persists, there is a possibility of further profit booking in the next few sessions. In such a scenario, the immediate hurdle is expected to be around 45400 – 45500, which corresponds to the breakdown levels. On the contrary, the low of yesterday, around 44700, along with the 50SMA coinciding with the previous swing low at 44500, is likely to provide the next immediate support zone.

Traders are advised to closely monitor these levels and trade accordingly on the weekly expiry day. Additionally, it's crucial to exercise caution due to the likelihood of heightened volatility, and one should avoid taking unnecessary risks.

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