Pharmaceuticals Sector Update - IPM: Seasonal weakness and a return to trend-line growth By Emkay Global
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IPM: Seasonal weakness and a return to trend-line growth
According to total sales data from IMS, IPM grew by 3% yoy in Feb'22 (despite a low base in Feb’21) vs. 21% yoy in Jan'22. We believe the decline in growth is due to: 1) subsiding Omicron wave, 2) seasonal weakness and 3) potential decrease in channel inventory. On a MAT basis, IPM grew by 19.2%, with volumes contributing 10.6%, pricing 4.3% and new products 4.4%
All major therapies posted low- to mid-single digit growth in Feb, except for Respiratory, which continued its double-digit growth (16%). Anti-diabetes remained flat in Feb’22. Cardiac grew by 4% yoy. On the other hand, Derma posted a decline of 3% in Feb’22
Within our coverage, Gland Pharma grew at the fastest pace, at 61% yoy, followed by Ipca at 9%. Dr. Reddy’s, Cipla, Lupin, Sun and Cadila grew in the range of 1%-8%. Dr. Reddy’s and Cipla grew at the slowest rate of 1%
We believe IPM has reverted to its trend-line growth, except for any Covid-led upside. However, due to the high base in FY22, we expect low- to mid-single digit IPM growth in FY23. Our coverage companies are also expected to report similar growth in their domestic formulations business in FY23.
SUNP (+5% yoy): Top-3 therapies – Neuro (+5%), Cardiac (+8%) and Gastro (+5.5%). Growth was in the mid- to high single-digits across major therapies, except for Respiratory, which grew in double-digits. Antidiabetic and Derma saw declines. Total volumes declined by 2.7% yoy. Top-10 brands grew by 3% yoy, Top 11-25 brands grew by 8%, and the rest by 4.9%.
CIPLA (+0.9% yoy): Top-3 therapies – Respiratory (+9.9%), Anti-infectives (-5.1%) and Cardiac (+9.8%). Antiviral, Derma, Anti-infective and Urology posted declines. Total volume declined by 6% yoy. Top-10 brands grew by 0.6%, while Top 11-25 brands grew by 6.2%, and the rest of the brands declined by 0.4%.
LPC (+2.6% yoy): Top-3 therapies – Cardiac (+1.6%), Anti-diabetic (+0.2%) and Respiratory (+17.4%). Anti-infective declined by 18.7%. The volume decline was 5.1% yoy. Top-10 brands posted 2% growth, Top 11-25 brands grew by 0.7%, and the rest of the brands grew by 3.3%
ZYDUSLIF (+7.7% yoy): Top-3 therapies – Respiratory (+12%), Anti-infectives (+7%) and Cardiac (+0.4%). Anti-diabetic and antineoplast each posted ~24% growth. Volumes declined by 1.5%. Top-10 brands grew by 11% yoy, while Top 11-25 brands grew by 4%, and the rest grew by 7.6%
DRRD (+0.6% yoy): Top-3 therapies – Respiratory (+10.3%) Gastro (+5%) and Cardiac (-2%). Volume declined by 3%. Top-10 brands posted 8.4% growth yoy, while Top 11-25 brands declined by 5.4%, and the rest declined by 0.5%.
IPCA (+9% yoy): Top-3 therapies – Pain (15.2%), Cardiac (-3.6%) and Anti-infective (+5.2%). Total volumes grew by 1.4%. Top-10 brands grew by 10.2% yoy, Top 11-25 brands grew by 1.9%, and the rest of the brands grew by 11%
GLAND (+61%yoy): Top-3 therapies – Cardiac (+98%), AI (-13%) and GI (+66.5%). Total volumes grew by 45%. Top-10 brands grew by 85% yoy and Top 11-25 grew by 1.2%.
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