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Indian markets ended significantly higher on Friday amid growing optimism that interest rates in the US could be lower by the year-end compared to now. Today, markets are likely to make flat-to-negative start on the first trading day of the week amid weak cues from global markets. Investor will keep eye on a three-day policy meeting of the RBI's monetary policy committee that gets underway later today. The Indian central bank is likely to raise rates by 25 basis points despite signs of softening retail inflation. Some cautiousness will come as the government hiked windfall profit tax levied on domestically-produced crude oil as well as on the export of diesel and ATF, in line with firming international oil prices. The levy on crude oil produced by companies such as Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) has been increased to Rs 5,050 per tonne from Rs 1,900 per tonne, the order dated February 3. Traders will be concerned as Foreign investors pulled out Rs 28,852 crore from Indian equities in January, making it the worst outflow in the last seven months, primarily due to attractiveness of the Chinese markets. However, some support may come as latest data released by the central bank showed the Reserve Bank of India’s foreign exchange reserves rose $3 billion to $576.76 billion in the week ended January 27. The current level of reserves is the highest since the week ended July 8, 2022. Traders may take note of the Reserve Bank’s statement that India's banking sector is resilient and stable, and the central bank maintains constant vigil on the lenders, amid concerns over banks' exposure to the embattled Adani Group. There will be some buzz in coal industry stocks as the coal ministry data showed that the country's coal production increased by 12.94 per cent to 89.96 million tonnes in January 2023. The country's coal output stood at 79.65 million tonnes (MT) in the corresponding month of the previous fiscal. Automobile industry stocks will be in focus as the Minister of State in the Union Ministry of Commerce and Industry, Anupriya Patel said the Vehicle exports have witnessed an impressive growth during 2021-22. Export of the total number of automobiles increased from 41,34,047 in 2020-21 to 56,17,246 in 2021-22, registering a positive growth of 35.9 per cent. There will be some reaction in fertilizer industry stocks as Minister of State for Chemicals and Fertilisers Bhagwant Khuba said India imported 152.7 lakh tonne of fertiliser, including urea and P&K, till December of the current fiscal. Investors await more of financial results from India Inc for domestic cues, with LIC, Adani Transmission and Tata Steel scheduled to post their earnings later in the day.

The US markets ended lower on Friday as a blockbuster jobs report revived worries about the interest-rate outlook. Asian markets are trading mostly in red on Monday as diplomatic tensions increased between the U.S. and China.

Back home, bulls roared over the Dalal Street on Friday as Indian equity benchmarks ended with strong gains led by Consumer Durables, Financial Services and Banking stocks. Markets made a positive start as traders took support with Central Board of Indirect Taxes and Customs (CBIC) chief Vivek Johri’s statement that monthly GST collection is expected to average around Rs 1.50 lakh crore and it will be the new normal in FY24 in view of concerted efforts to check evasion and bring new businesses within the GST net. Some support also came with Jeremy Zook, Director and Primary Sovereign analyst for India, Fitch Ratings, stating that the government's continued emphasis on ramping up capex spending should provide a fillip to both near- and medium-term growth. He believed India is well-placed to sustain higher rates of growth in the medium-term than many of its peers, with the capex drive helping to underpin this view. However, markets turned volatile in late morning deals, as traders got anxious with provisional data available on the NSE showing that foreign institutional investors (FII) net-sold shares worth Rs 3,065.35 crore.  But, markets gained traction in second half of the session to settle near day's high points, as traders found solace with the US India Strategic and Partnership Forum (USISPF) stating that the innovative, bold and stellar budget presented by Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will take India to a stronger growth trajectory. Some optimism also came with the economic think tank, the Global Trade Research Initiative’s (GTRI) statement that customs duty changes for several products such as precious metals, small cars, bicycles, toys and telecommunication components in the Budget will help promote the Make in India initiative of the government. Finally, the BSE Sensex rose 909.64 points or 1.52% to 60,841.88 and the CNX Nifty was up by 243.65 points or 1.38% to 17,854.05.

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