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Below our estimates; volumes fell 2% YoY to 394.75k units

Export volumes fell 33% YoY, domestic volumes grew 32%

* Wholesale volumes declined by 2% YoY to 394.75k units (est. 420.1k units).

* Domestic volumes grew 32% YoY to 254.7k units (est. 266.5k units).

* Motorcycle volumes declined by 3.5% YoY to 348.35k units (est. 374.5k units). Domestic Motorcycle volumes grew 28% YoY to 222.9k units.

* Motorcycle export volumes declined by 33% YoY to 125.4k units.

* We expect Motorcycle volumes to grow by ~5% in FY23, implying a monthly runrate of 311k units.

* 3W volumes grew 13% YoY to 46.4k units (est. 45.6k units). Domestic volumes grew 72.5% YoY to 31.7k units. Exports declined by 35% YoY to 14.6k units. We expect 3W volumes to grow by ~13% YoY in FY23.

* In an interview to CNBC-TV18, Mr. Rakesh Sharma, Executive Director, BJAUT, said, “Nigeria is certainly one of the factors, but the environment for international sale has become rather choppy in the last two-to-three months. Things have taken a sudden movement from Jul’22. This largely follows the moves by the US Federal Reserve, which has strengthened the USD against emerging market economies, thus devaluing their currencies.”

* On the domestic festival season, he said, “It is a good sign that the festive season is showing promise. Previously, immediately after the festivities, there is a decline as there is sort of a reshaping of the consumer behavior. It starts to get more bunched nowadays compared to earlier festive periods. So, we will take it as it comes.”

* The stock trades at at 15.9x/14.7x FY23E/FY24E consolidated EPS. We maintain our Neutral rating.

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