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Views On Morning Nifty, Derivative and Rupee comments 03 April 2023 by Anand James - Chief Market Strategist at Geojit Financial Services

Nifty outlook:  

At 17426, Nifty would have retraced 62% of the March’s fall, that would take some momentum off the upside trajectory. This necessitates a deft handling of the opening gains. We would hence wait for a close above 17540 before recharting course to 17800. Alternate scenario sees a pull back and consolidation, without allowing slippage past 17230 for the week, allowing resumption of uptrend in the next week. Fall back below 17230 could be a bear call though, but it may not be until below 17100, before downside momentum increases. This, while being one of the probable scenarios, we are still rooting for this week to weatherall storms, and clear course for 17800 soon.  

Derivative:

Nifty weekly contract has highest open interest at 17700 for Calls and 17000 for Puts while monthly contracts have highest open interest at 17000 for Calls and 17000 for Puts. Highest new OI addition was seen at 17600 for Calls and 17300 for Puts in weekly and at 17800 for Calls and 17300 for Puts in monthly contracts. FIIs increased their future index long position holdings by 25.74%, increased future index shorts by 0.23% and in index options by 15.61% in Call longs, 32.00% in Call short, 47.35% in Put longs and 131.71% in Put shorts.

USD-INR outlook:

 With 82 holding firm for a second consecutive day, bears appear to be losing grip, allowing USDINR to swing back to the upper end of the trading range of 82-82.37 which we have been discussing through most of last week. Brace for continued upsides, aiming 82.56, and it would require a fall back below 82.20 to negate the upside bias.

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