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Nifty outlook:  

Expect distribution once inside the 17850-950 region,followed by attempts to slip. Initial attempts to do so are likely to find bargain buying interest while above 18750,but expect the weakness to have at least another letdown aiming at 17650. This measured downside or consolidation should set up the environment for a directional move shortly. We will wait for a break beyond 17450 before collapse theories aiming 16500 are considered again, while push back above 17850 will increase the odds of an 18300 move shortly.  

Derivative:

Nifty weekly contract has highest open interest at 18000 for Calls and 17600 for Puts while monthly contracts have highest open interest at 18000 for Calls and 17500 for Puts. Highest new OI addition was seen at 18200 for Calls and 17700 for Puts in weekly and at 18100 for Calls and 17300 for Puts in monthly contracts. FIIs increased their future index long position holdings by -5.98%, increased future index shorts by -18.92% and in index options by -0.89% in Call longs, 6.15% in Call short, 5.10% in Put longs and 84.66% in Put shorts.

USD-INR outlook:

We had gone in last Friday, with expectation of up moves aiming 82.5. Though such moves reversed half way through, the ability to close near 81.90, our turnaround point, rekindled prospects of 82.5 again. We will look for trades above 82.1 to keep the upside bets in play.  

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