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Gold

Gold yesterday settled up by 0.21% at 50606 as the dollar weakened, but held to a tight range with investors reluctant to place big bets before the U.S. Federal Reserve's rate decision. Data showed U.S. job openings unexpectedly rose in September, highlighting a resilient labour market. Traders will be looking out for the Fed's commentary on future rate hikes amid growing optimism that the U.S. central bank will slow rate increases from December. India's gold consumption in the months of October to December could fall by around a quarter from a year ago as inflation depresses rural demand, the World Gold Council (WGC) said. The lower purchases in the world's second-biggest gold consumer could weigh on prices, which are trading near their lowest level in more than two-years. India's demand for gold rose 14% from a year ago to 191.7 tonnes in the quarter through September as festivals drove jewellery sales, the WGC said in a report. Central banks bought a record 399 tonnes of gold worth around $20 billion in the third quarter of 2022, helping to lift global demand for the metal, the World Gold Council (WGC) said. Demand for gold was also strong from jewellers and buyers of gold bars and coins, the WGC said in its latest quarterly report. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -6.15% to settle at 9182 while prices are up 104 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 50483 and below same could see a test of 50360 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 50781, a move above could see prices testing 50956.

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 50360-50956.
* Gold prices rose as the dollar weakened, but held to a tight range
* Data showed U.S. job openings unexpectedly rose in September, highlighting a resilient labour market.
* India's gold demand dips as inflation hits rural buyers


Silver

Silver yesterday settled down by -0.1% at 58790 as the dollar and Treasury yields stalled ahead of a key US Federal Reserve policy decision. Investors are now almost certain that the US central bank will deliver a fourth-straight 75 bps rate hike on November 2nd but beliefs the Fed will pivot by December sparked a bond rally and dragged down the dollar, boosting the appeal of the non-interest bearing assets. Meanwhile, robust US jobs data and better-than-expected US factory activity signaled that previous rate increases have yet to dampen the economic momentum, keeping the Fed on course to remain aggressive. Investors are waiting for signs that the U.S. central bank is prepared to slow the pace of its rate hikes come December. Meanwhile, Thursday's Bank of England meeting has become a close call between 50 bps and 75 bps. The policy decision will be accompanied by the Minutes of the meeting, the Monetary Policy Report, economic projections and Governor Andrew Bailey's press conference - making it a 'Super Thursday'. Global factory output weakened in October as widespread recession fears, high inflation and China's zero-COVID policy hurt demand, business surveys showed, adding to persistent supply disruptions and darkening recovery prospects. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 0.97% to settle at 14802 while prices are down -56 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 58496 and below same could see a test of 58203 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 59216, a move above could see prices testing 59643.

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 58203-59643.
* Silver steadied as the dollar and Treasury yields stalled ahead of a key US Federal Reserve policy decision.
* Robust US jobs data signaled that previous rate increases have yet to dampen the economic momentum
* Silver in high demand due to use in solar energy, EVs


Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled up by 1.65% at 7435 as industry data showed a surprise drop in U.S. crude stockpiles. Prices were also supported by a weaker dollar and renewed speculation of a gradual easing of the zero-COVID policy in China, the world's largest crude importer. Crude stocks fell by about 6.5 million barrels for the week ended Oct. 28, American Petroleum Institute figures showed. Gasoline inventories fell by about 2.6 million barrels, while distillate stocks rose by about 870,000 barrels. U.S. oil output climbed in August to its highest level since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, according to U.S. government data, as higher crude prices buoyed production. U.S. monthly field production rose to 11.98 million barrels per day in August, the highest since March 2020, data from the Energy Information Administration showed. U.S. shipments of crude oil via rail in August fell by 39,000 barrels per day (bpd) from the previous month to 194,000 bpd, according to data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Shipments within the United States in August rose by 29,000 barrels per day (bpd) from the previous month to 119,000 bpd, while shipments from Canada to the United states fell by 68,000 barrels per day (bpd) from the previous month to 75,000 bpd. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 39.87% to settle at 7504 while prices are up 121 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 7314 and below same could see a test of 7194 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7515, a move above could see prices testing 7596.

Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 7194-7596.
* Crude oil prices edged higher as industry data showed a surprise drop in U.S. crude stockpiles.
* Prices were also supported by a weaker dollar and renewed speculation of a gradual easing of the zero-COVID policy in China
* Crude stocks fell by about 6.5 million barrels for the week ended Oct. 28, American Petroleum Institute figures showed.


Nat.Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 8.85% at 515.5 on a drop in output at the start of the month and expectations gas demand will rise once the Freeport liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plant in Texas exits an outage. That price increase came despite forecasts lower demand over the next two weeks with the weather expected to remain mild through at least mid-November. That should allow utilities to keep adding gas into storage for a few weeks beyond the usual Oct. 31 end of the injection season. Freeport LNG expects its 2.1-billion-cubic-feet-per-day (bcfd) export plant to return to at least partial service in early- to mid-November following an unexpected shutdown on June 8 caused by a pipeline explosion. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states fell to 97.3 bcfd so far in November, down from a record 99.4 bcfd in October. Traders, however, noted that early month output figures were almost always unreliable and revised higher later in the month. With the coming of seasonally cooler weather, Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would rise from 98.1 bcfd this week to 100.0 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were lower than Refinitiv's outlook on Tuesday. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -51.46% to settle at 4879 while prices are up 41.9 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 491.3 and below same could see a test of 467.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 529.2, a move above could see prices testing 543.

Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 467.2-543.
* Natural gas jumped on a drop in output and expectations gas demand will rise once the Freeport LNG export plant in Texas exits an outage.
* That price increase came despite forecasts lower demand over the next two weeks with the weather expected to remain mild
* Freeport LNG expects its 2.1 bcfd export plant to return to at least partial service in early- to mid-November



Copper

Copper yesterday settled down by -0.02% at 657.6 as rising expectations that China will ease COVID-19 controls next year were offset by a bleak short-term outlook for manufacturing and metals demand. However, COVID restrictions currently in force are disrupting Chinese industry and data this week showed a slump in factory activity around the world. China will at some point loosen its COVID rules and require large amounts of copper wiring and other metals for infrastructure and decarbonization. China's potential economic growth is expected to be kept within reasonable range, and the country will be able to maintain normal monetary policy and positive interest rates for as long as possible, according to its central bank governor. China will improve its market-oriented floating foreign exchange system, and effectively manage and guide market expectations, central bank governor Yi Gang wrote in supplementary reading from China's Communist Party Congress. China aims to keep the scale of local government debt and the fiscal deficit at reasonable levels, and strictly curb any increase in hidden debt, the finance minister said. China will deepen value-added tax reform and appropriately expand the scope of personal income taxation, Liu Kun said in a supplementary reading at the Communist Party Congress. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -1.29% to settle at 4358 while prices are down -0.15 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 654.7 and below same could see a test of 651.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 662.3, a move above could see prices testing 666.8.

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 651.6-666.8.
* Copper steadied as rising expectations that China will ease COVID-19 controls next year.
* However, COVID restrictions currently in force are disrupting Chinese industry and data this week showed a slump in factory activity around the world.
* China able to maintain normal monetary policy, positive interest rates – central bank


Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled down by -0.14% at 255.8 amid a bleak short-term outlook for manufacturing and metals demand despite concerns over supply crunch in the physical market supported prices. The dollar slid on some expectations that the Fed will signal a slower pace of tightening at its upcoming meeting to assess the impact of its rate hikes on the economy. Metals prices were boosted as top consumer China could lift strict COVID-19 controls next year, raising hopes of stronger demand. Glencore produced 18% less zinc in the first nine months compared with the same period a year before, the company said as it trimmed its full-year output forecast by 6% due to knock-on effects of the Ukraine war. The forecast reduction was due to "emerging supply-chain issues in Kazakhstan as the secondary impacts of the Russia/Ukraine war are felt", the commodities group said. Kazakhstan has large deposits of zinc and other materials and Glencore controls Kazzinc, a producer of zinc, copper and lead, in the country. Zinc production of 699,600 tonnes from Glencore's own sources during the first three quarters was lower due to disposals and closures in South America, the closure of Matagami in Canada and worker absences due to COVID-19 at Mount Isa in Australia, the group said. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -0.05% to settle at 3835 while prices are down -0.35 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 253.6 and below same could see a test of 251.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 258.6, a move above could see prices testing 261.4.

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 251.4-261.4.
* Zinc prices dropped as manufacturing slump points to weak demand
* China could lift strict COVID-19 controls next year, raising hopes of stronger demand.
* Glencore cuts zinc output guidance after production drops 18% in nine months


Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled up by 0.5% at 200.4 as support seen amid easing macro sentiment with China October Caixin manufacturing PMI record a slightly higher-than-expected reading. From the supply side, due to factors such as the advent of the heating season and the poor profitability caused by low aluminium prices, some aluminium smelters in Henan province plan to reduce production, involving an annual production capacity of about 110,000 mt. China's potential economic growth is expected to be kept within reasonable range, and the country will be able to maintain normal monetary policy and positive interest rates for as long as possible, according to its central bank governor. China will improve its market-oriented floating foreign exchange system, and effectively manage and guide market expectations, central bank governor Yi Gang wrote in supplementary reading from China's Communist Party Congress. China aims to keep the scale of local government debt and the fiscal deficit at reasonable levels, and strictly curb any increase in hidden debt, the finance minister said. China will deepen value-added tax reform and appropriately expand the scope of personal income taxation, Liu Kun said in a supplementary reading at the Communist Party Congress. Aluminium stocks at three major Japanese ports fell 5% to 379,700 tonnes at the end of September from 399,800 tonnes at the end of August. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 2.87% to settle at 5018 while prices are up 1 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 198.8 and below same could see a test of 197.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 202, a move above could see prices testing 203.6.

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 197.2-203.6.
* Aluminum gains amid easing macro sentiment with China October Caixin manufacturing PMI record a slightly higher-than-expected reading
* China to keep local government debt, fiscal deficit at reasonable levels
* Japan aluminium stocks down 5% m/m in September


Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -0.45% at 982.8 as mentha exports during Apr-Aug 2022 has dropped by 14.27 percent at 886.53 tonnes as compared to 1034.14 tonnes exported during Apr-Aug 2021. Exports in the month of August 2022 were around 238.04 tonnes as against 155.04 tonnes in July 2022 showing a rise of 53.53%. In the month of August 2022 around 238.04 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 227.27 tonnes in August 2021 showing a rose of 4.74%. Synthetic Mentha supply remains uninterrupted. Support also seen amid low production this season and improving demand post-pandemic. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year, production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. In Spot market, support seen after IMD issues Yellow Alert in key sowing area ; light-moderate rain to continue till Sept 4 impacting arrival in the mandi. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -3.7 Rupees to end at 1109 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -3.6% to settle at 1124 while prices are down -4.4 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 979.3 and below same could see a test of 975.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 988.3, a move above could see prices testing 993.9.

Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 975.9-993.9.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -3.7 Rupees to end at 1109 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil prices dropped as exports during Apr-Aug 2022 has dropped by 14.27 percent
* August exports were around 238.04 tonnes showing a rise of 53.53% compared to July 2022.
* However, Synthetic Mentha supply remains uninterrupted.


Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled up by 0.89% at 7280 as unseasonal rains in some parts of the country have affected the crops. Arrivals has been dropped by 26% Y-o-Y due to lower production as about 11248 tonnes of turmeric arrived at APMC mandies across India in Sep’22 compared to 15758 tonnes of previous year for corresponding month. As per Andhra Pradesh agricultural department, as on 06th October 2022 Turmeric sowing activity completed around 16,921 hectares as compared to last year same period 19,376 hectares, down by 12.67% till date. Turmeric exports during Apr-August 2022 has rose by 15.35 percent at 74,393.62 tonnes as compared to 64,493.34 tonnes exported during Apr- August 2021. In the month of August 2022 around 12,147.89 tonnes turmeric was exported as against 12,810.36 tonnes in July 2022 showing a drop of 5.17%. In the month of August 2022 around 12,147.89 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 11,617.90 tonnes in August 2021 showing a rise of 4.56%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. The Spices Board has pegged turmeric production at 1.33 mln tn, up 18.4% on year. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7287.9 Rupees gained 48.8 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -4.52% to settle at 8445 while prices are up 64 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7146 and below same could see a test of 7012 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7414, a move above could see prices testing 7548

.
Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 7012-7548.
* Turmeric gained as unseasonal rains in some parts of the country have affected the crops.
* As per Andhra Pradesh agricultural department, turmeric sowing activity completed around 16,921 hectares, down by 12.67% till date from last year.
* Marathwada region has been serving as a round-the-year supply centre for Turmeric since past couple of years.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7287.9 Rupees gained 48.8 Rupees.


Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled up by 0.37% at 24315 due to moisture conditions as a result of higher rainfall sowing may be delayed by 10 to 15 days current year. Current year Jeera sowing is likely to start from October last week or November first week in Gujarat growing regions. However, reports sowing started in some parts of Rajasthan as moisture conditions is less and completed around 2% to 3% in the key growing regions. Current year sowing area likely to increase in Rajasthan and Gujarat growing regions. Jeera exports during Apr-August 2022 has dropped by 26.44 percent at 91,505.49 tonnes as compared to 1,24,390.31 tonnes exported during Apr- August 2021. In the month of August 2022 around 24,448.33 tonnes jeera was exported as against 19,866.18 tonnes in July 2022 showing a rise of 18.74%. In the month of August 2022 around 24,448.33 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 17,460.60 tonnes in August 2021 showing a rise of 40.02%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. Jeera production was seen at 725,651 tn, down 8.8% on year due to lower acreage in Rajasthan and Gujarat, the key producer, according to data from Spices Board India. According to fourth advanced estimates by Gujarat government, jeera production is seen fall by 44.5 per cent to 221500 tonnes in 2021-22 on yoy basis In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 137.2 Rupees to end at 24312.1 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -6.14% to settle at 5322 while prices are up 90 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 24150 and below same could see a test of 23990 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 24470, a move above could see prices testing 24630.

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 23990-24630.
* Jeera prices gained due to moisture conditions as a result of higher rainfall sowing may be delayed by 10 to 15 days current year.
* Current year sowing area likely to increase in Rajasthan and Gujarat growing regions.
* All-India Jeera production is expected to fall in the Marketing year 2022-23 by around 33% to 3 lakh tonnes on y-o-y basis due to lower sowings.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 137.2 Rupees to end at 24312.1 Rupees per 100 kg.

Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled up by 3.97% at 30920 as cotton production is expected to fall dramatically in Telangana as a result of the four months of incessant rain and pest attacks. While cotton output is expected to be low, cotton quality is also likely to be affected by the same factors. Cotton farmers have demanded a minimum support price (MSP) of ?12,000 a quintal during the current season, saying the cost of production has increased significantly, while yields have dropped. India is likely to produce 34.4 million bales of cotton in the 2022/23 season that started on Oct. 1, up 12% from a year ago after farmers expanded the crop area. India’s cotton output for the season ended September 30, 2022, fell to 307.5 lakh bales (against 360.13 lakh bales estimated at the beginning of the season in October last year. This is the lowest since 2007-08, when the production was 307 lakh bales. WASDE report said world trade is projected to be nearly 1 million bales lower from September, with declines in imports by China, Pakistan, Mexico, Turkey and Vietnam. The agency lowered its U.S. exports forecast by 100,000 bales to 12.5 million bales, while also cutting export estimates for Australia, Brazil, India, Benin, Cote d’Ivoire, Greece and Mexico. "In the 2022/23 world balance sheet this month, consumption is 3.0 million bales lower and ending stocks are 3.1 million bales higher," the USDA said. In spot market, Cotton gained by 250 Rupees to end at 31220 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -6.84% to settle at 1825 while prices are up 1180 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 30500 and below same could see a test of 30070 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 31140, a move above could see prices testing 31350.

Trading Ideas:
* Cotton trading range for the day is 30070-31350.
* Cotton gains as cotton production is expected to fall dramatically in Telangana as a result of the four months of incessant rain and pest attacks
* The pink worm harmed the cotton flock and will have an impact on output.
* USDA projected higher year-end stocks and a decline in exports amid a slowdown in consumption.
* In spot market, Cotton gained  by 250 Rupees to end at 31220 Rupees.

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