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Gold

Gold yesterday settled down by -1.07% at 51606 as higher Treasury yields dented the appeal of zero-yield bullion, with a stronger dollar adding further pressure. Yields on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note rose back above 2.4% after dropping to a one-week low in the previous session. U.S. job growth continued at a brisk clip in March, with the unemployment rate falling to a new two-year low of 3.6% and wages re-accelerating, positioning the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by a hefty 50 basis points in May. The Labor Department's closely watched employment report's survey of establishments showed that nonfarm payrolls increased by 431,000 jobs last month. Data for February was revised higher to show 750,000 jobs added instead of the previously reported 678,000. The unemployment rate dropped to 3.6%, the lowest since February 2020, from 3.8% in February. Policymakers have been ratcheting up their hawkish rhetoric, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell saying the U.S. central bank must move "expeditiously" to hike rates and possibly "more aggressively" to keep high inflation from becoming entrenched. March's employment report and the consumer prices data on April 12 will be crucial to the Fed's rate decision at its May 3-4 policy meeting. March's employment report and the consumer prices data on April 12 will be crucial to the Fed's rate decision at its May 3-4 policy meeting. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.17% to settled at 18372 while prices down -560 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 51438 and below same could see a test of 51270 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 51901, a move above could see prices testing 52196.
Trading Ideas:
Gold trading range for the day is 51270-52196.
Gold eased as higher Treasury yields dented the appeal of zero-yield bullion, with a stronger dollar adding further pressure.
Yields on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note rose back above 2.4% after dropping to a one-week low in the previous session.
U.S. job growth continued at a brisk clip in March, with the unemployment rate falling to a new two-year low of 3.6%


Silver

Silver yesterday settled down by -1.12% at 66733 after the latest US jobs report continued to show signs of a tight labour market strengthening expectations for a 50bps increase in the Fed funds rate in May to tame inflation. The American economy added 431 thousand jobs in March, a tad below market expectations, bringing the unemployment rate to a new pre-pandemic low of 3.6%. On Thursday, the metal capped its biggest quarterly gain since the pandemic-led surge in mid-2020 as concerns over soaring consumer prices and the Ukraine crisis boosted its safe-haven appeal. In money markets, eight additional rate hikes by the Fed are priced in for the current year. Eurozone inflation accelerated further to a new record high in March, flash data from Eurostat showed. Inflation rose to 7.5 percent from 5.9 percent in February. The rate was also above the economists' forecast of 6.6 percent. Overnight data showed that the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of core inflation jumped to 5.4 percent on year, its highest level in nearly 40 years. The ISM Manufacturing PMI for the US fell to 57.1 in March of 2022 from 58.6 in February, well below market forecasts of 59 and pointing to the slowest growth in factory activity since September of 2020. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 7.38% to settled at 6474 while prices down -754 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 66352 and below same could see a test of 65970 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 67286, a move above could see prices testing 67838.
Trading Ideas:
Silver trading range for the day is 65970-67838.
Silver dropped as US jobs report continued to show signs of a tight labour market strengthening expectations for a 50bps increase in the Fed funds rate
The American economy added 431 thousand jobs in March, a tad below market expectations
Eurozone inflation accelerated further to a new record high in March, flash data from Eurostat showed.


Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled down by -2.67% at 7559 as pressure continued after U.S. President Joe Biden announced a release of 1 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil for six months from May, the largest release ever from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). OPEC+, which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia, stuck with plans for an increase of 432,000 bpd to their May output target despite Western pressure to add more. China's commercial hub of Shanghai ground to a halt on Friday after the government locked down most of the city's 26 million residents, aiming to stop the spread of COVID-19. OPEC and allies including Russia agreed to another modest monthly oil output boost, resisting pressure to pump more, and ditched the Paris-based International Energy Agency as a data source in a sign of a hardening standoff with the West. The group has resisted repeated calls by the United States and the IEA to pump more crude to cool prices that climbed close to an all-time high after Washington and Brussels imposed sanctions on Moscow following its invasion of Ukraine. U.S. oil production fell in January by 2% to the lowest since September 2021, according to a monthly report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -17.07% to settled at 3595 while prices down -207 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 7431 and below same could see a test of 7302 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7707, a move above could see prices testing 7854.
Trading Ideas:
Crude oil trading range for the day is 7302-7854.
Crude oil dropped as pressure continued after U.S. President Joe Biden announced a release of 1 mbpd of crude oil for six months from May
OPEC+ sticks to modest oil output rises, ditches IEA data
OPEC states' compliance with OPEC+ output cut pledges increased to 151% in March, up from 136% in February


Nat.Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 0.25% at 437.5 as soaring global prices kept demand for U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports at record highs. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities injected 26 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended March 25 when mild weather kept heating demand low. That was the first injection in 2022, but analysts said cooler weather this week will likely result in another draw. The U.S. gas market, however, remains mostly shielded from higher global prices because the United States, the world's top gas producer, has all the fuel it needs for domestic use, and the country's ability to export more LNG is constrained by limited capacity. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 93.7 bcfd in March from 92.8 bcfd in February, as more oil and gas wells return to service after freezing over the winter. That compares with a monthly record of 96.3 bcfd in December. Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would drop from 106.2 bcfd this week to 96.7 bcfd next week and 93.1 bcfd in two weeks as the weather turns seasonally milder. Those forecasts were similar to Refinitiv's outlook on Thursday. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -5.4% to settled at 8094 while prices up 1.1 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 424.5 and below same could see a test of 411.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 444.9, a move above could see prices testing 452.3.
Trading Ideas:
Natural gas trading range for the day is 411.5-452.3.
Natural gas edged up as soaring global prices kept demand for U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports at record highs.
EIA said utilities injected 26 bcf of gas into storage during the week ended March 25 when mild weather kept heating demand low.
Russia suspends gas flows to Germany through the Yamal-Europe pipeline – Gascade



Copper

Copper yesterday settled down by -0.64% at 816.2 after data showed that factory activity in top metals consumer China slumped at the fastest pace in two years last month, hit by a COVID-19 resurgence and related restrictions. Most Asian factories saw activity slow in March, as slumping Chinese demand and rising raw material costs blamed on the Ukraine crisis added strains to firms already suffering from lingering supply chain disruptions. Shanghai is set to expand COVID curbs to include the western half of the city and extend restrictions in the east where people have already been forced to stay home since Monday. Copper output in Chile, the world's largest producer of the metal, fell 7% year on year to 399,817 tonnes in February, the country's statistics agency said. This follows a drop of 7.5% year-over-year in January and a 1.9% decline in copper production in 2021. The agency also reported that the Andean country's manufacturing output dropped 2.2% in February, lagging the market forecast of a 0.5% rise. The agency said a 9% year-on-year dip in chemical products and substances manufacturing because of lower fertilizer production was largely responsible for the manufacturing drop. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 2.25% to settled at 3592 while prices down -5.25 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 812.2 and below same could see a test of 808.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 821.8, a move above could see prices testing 827.3.
Trading Ideas:
Copper trading range for the day is 808.1-827.3.
Copper prices slipped after data showed that factory activity in top metals consumer China slumped at the fastest pace in two years last month
Copper output in Chile, the world's largest producer of the metal, fell 7% year-on-year to 399,817 tonnes in February.
Shanghai is set to expand COVID curbs to include the western half of the city and extend restrictions in the east


Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled up by 3.37% at 356.1 as some manufacturers planned to suspend the production amid a complicated market and upcoming Tomb Sweeping holiday. China's factory activity contracted in March as the economy faced renewed downward pressures from stringent COVID-19 controls. China's pledges to shore up its embattled property sector have done little to boost prospects for the sector. China will roll out policies to stabilise the economy as soon as possible as the downward pressure in the economy increased. China's factory activity slumped at the fastest pace in two years in March, as the domestic COVID-19 resurgence and the economic fallout from the Ukraine war triggered sharp falls in production and demand, a business survey showed. The Caixin/Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 48.1 in March, indicating the steepest rate of contraction since February 2020, from 50.4 in the previous month. The 50-point index mark separates growth from contraction on a monthly basis. The deterioration in manufacturing conditions was broadly in line with the official PMI, which showed activity contracted at the quickest rate since October 2021. Most Asian factories saw activity slow in March, as slumping Chinese demand and rising raw material costs blamed on the Ukraine crisis added strains to firms already suffering from lingering supply chain disruptions. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 42.98% to settled at 1527 while prices up 11.6 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 346.5 and below same could see a test of 336.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 362.1, a move above could see prices testing 367.9.
Trading Ideas:
Zinc trading range for the day is 336.7-367.9.
Zinc prices rose as some manufacturers planned to suspend the production amid a complicated market and upcoming Tomb Sweeping holiday
China's factory activity contracted in March as the economy faced renewed downward pressures from stringent COVID-19 controls.
China's pledges to shore up its embattled property sector have done little to boost prospects for the sector.


Nickel
Nickel yesterday settled up by 1.57% at 2447.8 as the nickel ore inventory at Chinese ports dipped 230,000 wmt from a week earlier to 5.887 million wmt. Pressure seen on disappointing China manufacturing PMI which stood at 48.83, down 4.62% YoY, and the climate index was greatly impacted by the pandemic. On the supply side, the pandemic has brought transportation problems, and the supply of Jinchuan nickel in Shanghai is relatively tight. As the price difference between SHFE and LME nickel remains great, and the supply of Sumitomo, NORNICKEL, NIKKELVERK nickel and nickel briquette is still tight. In terms of nickel pig iron, the production and transportation problems of NPI plants in Liaoning and Inner Mongolia have been seriously affected, and the output is expected to fall in March. On the demand side, the cost efficiency of self-dissolved nickel briquette in the nickel sulphate plant has not recovered amid high futures prices. In addition, the output of the downstream precursor plants and the ternary cathode material plants did not contract in March thanks to their in-plant stocks, but the inventory in April will be low, hence there is possibility of production cuts. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed remain unchanged in open interest by 0% to settled at 182 while prices up 37.8 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 2368.6 and below same could see a test of 2289.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 2508.6, a move above could see prices testing 2569.3.
Trading Ideas:
Nickel trading range for the day is 2289.3-2569.3.
Nickel rose as the nickel ore inventory at Chinese ports dipped 230,000 wmt from a week earlier to 5.887 million wmt.
 Sumitomo Metal sees global nickel demand for battery use at 410,000 in 2022
Nickel briquette prices stood above 200,000 yuan/mt, and demand from nickel sulphate plants may contract.


Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -0.48% at 280.6 as the demand was still contained by the pandemic in China. Aluminium production resumption accelerated, but output in Q1 will drop YoY. Pandemic has restricted downstream operating rates, and aluminium social inventory dropped slowly, with a number of ingot on road. China is stepping up exports of aluminium to fill a widening supply gap in Western markets. The country shipped out 26,378 tonnes of primary aluminium in February, the highest monthly total since 2010. Imports collapsed over the first two months of the year, with the result that China turned a net exporter in February for the first time since November 2019. This is a significant shift in trade patterns. China sucked in massive amounts of primary metal over 2020 and 2021 as domestic production struggled to match demand. China's factory activity slumped at the fastest pace in two years in March, as the domestic COVID-19 resurgence and the economic fallout from the Ukraine war triggered sharp falls in production and demand, a business survey showed. The Caixin/Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 48.1 in March, indicating the steepest rate of contraction since February 2020, from 50.4 in the previous month. The 50-point index mark separates growth from contraction on a monthly basis. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.04% to settled at 2472 while prices down -1.35 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 278.4 and below same could see a test of 276 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 284.3, a move above could see prices testing 287.8.
Trading Ideas:
Aluminium trading range for the day is 276-287.8.
Aluminium prices dropped as the demand was still contained by the pandemic in China.
Aluminium production resumption accelerated, but output in Q1 will drop YoY.
Pandemic has restricted downstream operating rates, and aluminium social inventory dropped slowly, with a number of ingot on road.


Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled up by 0.98% at 1102.5 on reports that due to poor prices farmers has shifted to other crops resulting lower production. Germany's BASF said it would have to stop production if natural gas supplies fell to less than half its needs, as the world's largest chemicals group warned of the damage to its operations from Europe's power crunch. Mentha farming has lost its allure in Uttar Pradesh as farmers struggle without stable price, MSP and government support. High input costs and lack of support price have drastically brought down the return of farmers who have already been struggling to increase their incomes. Prices gains amid loss in production and improvement in demand while monsoon is yet to be seen as last year heavy rains in the pre-monsoon season came like a disaster for farmer. Last year the unseasonal heavy rainfall in May destroyed the ready to be harvested mentha crop. The month, as per the IMD, was the second wettest May in the past 121 years. Maharashtra and West Bengal lifts all its Covid curbs which will help Mentha oil and its derivatives to gains its demand as they are extensively used in food, pharmaceutical, perfumery, and flavouring industry. FMCG industry reels under extraordinary inflationary pressures, experts believe it will continue to grow in both volume and value, but margins will get squeezed. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained by 17.4 Rupees to end at 1207.2 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.3% to settled at 1015 while prices up 10.7 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 1087.1 and below same could see a test of 1071.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1115.9, a move above could see prices testing 1129.3.
Trading Ideas:
Mentha oil trading range for the day is 1071.7-1129.3.
In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained  by 17.4 Rupees to end at 1207.2 Rupees per 360 kgs.
Mentha oil prices gained on reports that due to poor prices farmers has shifted to other crops resulting lower production
Germany's BASF, says it may halt production at world’s biggest chemicals plant in Ludwigshafen if gas supply is halved under Germany's emergency plan.
Maharashtra and West Bengal lifts all its Covid curbs which will help Mentha to gains its demand


Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled up by 5.13% at 9224 as turmeric crop was damaged in Maharashtra, Nizamabad in Telangana and Kadapa in Andhra Pradesh due to rains and cyclones. New season turmeric is arriving in the market and exports are normal this season. In the first 9 months (April-December) of FY 2021-22, exports declined by 20.7% over the previous year to 1,16,400 tonnes, but 8.8% higher than the 5-year average. The arrival of the new crop has started in the markets of Telangana and Maharashtra. Pressure also seen due to tensions between Ukraine and Russia which may disrupt shipments of spices to Europe and other destinations. The farmers, who incurred losses during this period due to low price, are hoping to get good price this year, so that they could clear their dues to some extent. The market sentiment is buoyant mainly since the ending stocks are expected to be 17-18 lakh bags (50 kg each) this year against 25 lakh bags last year. Spices Board data showed turmeric production this year being projected at 11.01 lakh tonnes against 11.78 lakh tonnes last year, mainly on the output being affected in Telangana, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Assam and Haryana. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 8690 Rupees gained 19.4 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -7.19% to settled at 8265 while prices up 450 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 8928 and below same could see a test of 8634 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 9398, a move above could see prices testing 9574.
Trading Ideas:
Turmeric trading range for the day is 8634-9574.
Turmeric gained as Turmeric crop was damaged in Maharashtra, Nizamabad in Telangana and Kadapa in Andhra Pradesh due to rains and cyclones
New season turmeric is arriving in the market and exports are normal this season.
In the first 9 months (April-December) of FY 2021-22, exports declined by 20.7% over the previous year to 1,16,400 tonnes.
In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 8690 Rupees gained 19.4 Rupees.


Jeera
Jeera yesterday settled up by 4.11% at 22415 as there were reports of decline in sowing area and improving domestic demand. The export of cumin in April-January declined by 23% year-on-year to 1.88 lakh tonnes as compared to 2.44 lakh tonnes in the previous year. Pressure also seen due to tensions between Ukraine and Russia which may disrupt shipments of spices to Europe and other destinations. In 2021-22, the area under cumin in Gujarat is only 3.07 lakh hectares as compared to 4.69 lakh hectares in the same period last year and production is expected to decline by 41% to 2.37 lakh tonnes as compared to last year's 4 lakh tonnes as per second advance estimates. The area under jeera has decreased by about 30% in Rajasthan this year, to 5.39 lakh hectares (lh) from 7.7 lh last year, Spices Board officials confirmed. According to the data released by the commerce department, cumin exports in January 2022 increased by 19% to 14,725 tonnes as compared to 12,385 tonnes in December 2021. Carry-forward stocks would be approximately 25 lakh bags. Last year's jeera crop was 93 lakh bags, with a carryover stock of 20 lakh bags. The decline in the jeera area is more pronounced in Rajasthan, where farmers have shifted to mustard because prices for the oilseed crop were favourable during the sowing season. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -84.2 Rupees to end at 21215.8 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.51% to settled at 9000 while prices up 885 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 21735 and below same could see a test of 21050 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 22885, a move above could see prices testing 23350.
Trading Ideas:
Jeera trading range for the day is 21050-23350.
Jeera gained as there were reports of decline in sowing area and improving domestic demand.
Export of cumin in April-January declined by 23% year-on-year to 1.88 lakh tonnes
At Jodhpur market, new crop arrivals started coming with moisture content 8% to 10%
In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -84.2 Rupees to end at 21215.8 Rupees per 100 kg.


Cotton
Cotton yesterday settled down by -0.21% at 42150 on profit booking after USDA's planting intentions report showed U.S. cotton acreage at 12.234 million acres for the 2022/2023 marketing year versus 12.007 million acres forecasted. The USDA also released weekly export sales data which showed net sales of 234,000 running bales of cotton for 2021/2022, down 24% from the previous week. However downside seen limited on fears of shortfall in production and higher demand for raw cotton for export. The arrival of cotton in the country is continuously declining, at present the daily arrivals are 65 to 75 lakh bales which will further decrease in the coming week. At the moment, there are very few ginning mills running in the country, the stock of best quality cotton is very low at the moment, similarly the stock of Binola is also low. The price of cotton yarn is continuously increasing, but there is no major demand in the domestic market and export market, due to which the Spinners' Mills Association has cut production, due to which cotton industries will benefit in the long run. Spinning mills are buying cotton at higher prices as the balance sheet of cotton is becoming tighter continuously. In spot market, Cotton dropped by -120 Rupees to end at 43340 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.64% to settled at 5524 while prices down -90 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 41670 and below same could see a test of 41180 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 42810, a move above could see prices testing 43460.
Trading Ideas:
Cotton trading range for the day is 41180-43460.
Cotton dropped on profit booking after USDA's report showed U.S. cotton acreage at 12.234 million acres for the 2022/2023 versus 12.007 million acres forecasted.
The USDA also released weekly export sales data which showed net sales of 234,000 running bales of cotton for 2021/2022, down 24% from the previous week.
However downside seen limited on fears of shortfall in production and higher demand for raw cotton for export.
In spot market, Cotton dropped  by -120 Rupees to end at 43340 Rupees.

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