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Gold

Gold yesterday settled up by 0.53% at 53272 as the Russia-Ukraine crisis soured risk sentiment and drove investors to the safety of bullion. Ukrainian soldiers resisted a Russian ultimatum to lay down arms in the pulverised port of Mariupol, which Moscow said its forces had almost completely seized in what would be its biggest prize of the nearly two-month war. Restraining advances in zero-yield gold, yields on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note firmed to their highest since December 2018. Meanwhile, China's economy grew at a faster-than-expected clip in the first quarter, official data showed, expanding 4.8% year-on-year, but the risk of a sharp slowdown over coming months has risen as sweeping COVID-19 curbs and the Ukraine war take a toll. The NAHB housing market index in the US fell to 77 in April of 2022 from 79 in March, in line with market expectations. The index fell for a fourth consecutive month to the lowest since September last year, as a sharp jump in mortgage rates, persistent supply chain disruptions, elevated housing prices and construction costs continue to unsettle the housing market. The current sales subindex fell 2 points to 85; buyer traffic dropped 6 points to 60, and sales expectations in the next six months increased 3 points to 73, following a 10-point drop in March. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.66% to settled at 17980 while prices up 280 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 53105 and below same could see a test of 52939 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 53550, a move above could see prices testing 53829.
Trading Ideas:
Gold trading range for the day is 52939-53829.
Gold prices rose as the Russia-Ukraine crisis soured risk sentiment and drove investors to the safety of bullion.
Yields on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note firmed to their highest since December 2018.
The NAHB housing market index in the US fell to 77 in April of 2022 from 79 in March, in line with market expectations


Silver

Silver yesterday settled up by 1.37% at 69976 as the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine and broadening inflationary pressures lifted the safe-haven bids for the precious metal. Meanwhile, investors seemed to look past impending interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve to bring down 40-year high inflation. Elsewhere, inflation in the Euro Area break a record high for the fourth straight month in March and surged to a 30-year high in the UK. The latest data also showed inflationary warning signs in Asia, with inflation readings in China, India, Indonesia, Thailand and South Korea all rising more than expected. As the Russia-Ukraine war entered the eighth week, Russian forces are said to be re-organizing in eastern Ukraine for a decisive conflict. Ukraine, for the first time, revealed that it has lost 3,000 soldiers in seven weeks of the Russia Ukraine conflict. The Chinese economy slowed sharply in March, with major indicators released earlier today showing slower increases. Retail sales growth turned negative due to the COVID outbreak in many cities. Rising inflation levels across the globe and elevated expectations of rate hikes by the Federal Reserve clouded the growth outlook for this year, with the Goldman Sachs economics team saying that there is now a 35 percent chance of a U.S recession over the next two years. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.8% to settled at 7072 while prices up 944 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 69404 and below same could see a test of 68832 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 70643, a move above could see prices testing 71310.
Trading Ideas:
Silver trading range for the day is 68832-71310.
Silver extended gains as the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine and broadening inflationary pressures lifted the safe-haven bids for the precious metal.
Investors seemed to look past impending interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve to bring down 40-year high inflation.
Inflation in the Euro Area break a record high for the fourth straight month in March and surged to a 30-year high in the UK.


Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled up by 3.12% at 8316 as outages in Libya deepened concern over tight global supply and the Ukraine crisis dragged on, offsetting concern over slowing Chinese demand. Adding to supply pressures from sanctions on Russia, Libya's National Oil Corp on Monday warned "a painful wave of closures" had begun hitting its facilities and declared force majeure at Al-Sharara oilfield and other sites. The Libyan developments offset concern about demand in China, where the economy slowed in March, taking the shine off first-quarter growth numbers and worsening an outlook already weakened by COVID-19 curbs. U.S. crude oil output is expected to rise 820,000 barrels per day to 12.01 million bpd in 2022, the government said in a monthly forecast. U.S. crude output is expected to rise 940,000 bpd to 12.95 million bpd in 2023, according to the same monthly report from the Energy Information Administration. U.S. total petroleum consumption is due to rise 800,000 bpd to 20.58 million bpd in 2022. Data also showed China refined 2% less oil in March than a year earlier, with throughput falling to the lowest since October as the surge in crude prices squeezed margins and tight lockdowns hurt demand. There are concerns of deeper supply losses looming. Russian production declined by 7.5% in the first half of April from March. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 23% to settled at 4648 while prices up 252 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 8143 and below same could see a test of 7970 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 8418, a move above could see prices testing 8520.
Trading Ideas:
Crude oil trading range for the day is 7970-8520.
Crude oil rose as outages in Libya deepened concern over tight global supply and the Ukraine crisis dragged on, offsetting concern over slowing Chinese demand
U.S. crude output to rise 820,000 bpd in 2022
Libya halts operations at El Feel oilfield due to protests


Nat.Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 7.49% at 597.3 on a smaller than usual storage build and a recent drop in U.S. output. Also supporting prices in recent days, spot gas prices soared due to unusual cold in Alberta, Canada and unusual heat in the U.S. Mid-Atlantic region. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities added 15 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas to storage during the week ended April 8. U.S. natural gas production and demand will both rise in 2022 as the economy grows, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO). EIA projected that dry gas production will rise to 97.41 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in 2022 and 100.86 bcfd in 2023 from a record 93.57 bcfd in 2021. The agency also projected that gas consumption would rise to 84.11 bcfd in 2022 and 84.75 bcfd in 2023 from 82.97 bcfd in 2021. That compares with a record 85.29 bcfd in 2019. EIA's April supply projection for 2022 was bigger than its March forecast of 96.69 bcfd, but its demand projection was smaller than its March forecast of 84.59 bcfd for 2022. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -27.18% to settled at 8059 while prices up 41.6 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 572.6 and below same could see a test of 547.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 618.6, a move above could see prices testing 639.9.
Trading Ideas:
Natural gas trading range for the day is 547.9-639.9.
Natural gas gained on a smaller than usual storage build and a recent drop in U.S. output.
Also prices soared due to unusual cold in Alberta, Canada and unusual heat in the U.S. Mid-Atlantic region.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities added 15 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas to storage during the week ended April 8.



Copper

Copper yesterday settled up by 1.75% at 837.05 as supply risks rose on declining inventories and the likelihood of more sanctions on Russia, one of the largest producers of the metal. Copper inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 8.2% from last Friday, the exchange said. China is expected to report a sharp deterioration in economic activity in March as COVID-19 outbreaks and lockdowns hit consumers and factories, although first-quarter growth may have perked up due to a strong start early in the year. China said it would cut the amount of cash that banks must hold as reserves for the first time this year, releasing about 530 billion yuan ($83.25 billion) in long-term liquidity to cushion a sharp slowdown in economic growth. China's gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by 4.8% in the first quarter from a year earlier, but the economy slowed in March as consumption, real estate and exports were hit hard. The economy is likely to stay on its recovery track this year and Beijing will step up policy implementation to stabilise the outlook, said a spokesman for the country's statistics bureau. Last week, Barrick Gold said its copper production in the first quarter fell 19.8% compared to the previous quarter, hurt by lower output at its Lumwana mine. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.94% to settled at 3212 while prices up 14.4 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 824.3 and below same could see a test of 811.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 845.8, a move above could see prices testing 854.4.
Trading Ideas:
Copper trading range for the day is 811.4-854.4.
Copper gains as supply risks rose on declining inventories and the likelihood of more sanctions on Russia, one of the largest producers of the metal
Copper inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 8.2% from last Friday, the exchange said
China is expected to report a sharp deterioration in economic activity in March as COVID-19 outbreaks and lockdowns hit consumers and factories


Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled up by 2.41% at 381.7 as low inventories and hopes for additional stimulus in top metals consumer China outweighed pressure from a stronger dollar. China's gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by 4.8% in the first quarter from a year earlier, but the economy slowed in March as consumption, real estate and exports were hit hard. The economy is likely to stay on its recovery track this year and Beijing will step up policy implementation to stabilise the outlook, said a spokesman for the country's statistics bureau. The deepening Russia-Ukraine crisis has lifted expectations around more sanction from the West and allies on Moscow, adding to existing supply risks. Zinc inventories in LME-registered warehouses have fallen to their lowest since June 2020 at 117,850 tonnes, with more zinc expected to leave the LME system as indicated by high levels of cancelled warrants, or metal earmarked for delivery. The premium for LME cash zinc over the three-month contract stands at about $64 a tonne, compared with a discount of about $15 a month ago, suggesting worries over low inventories. Rising prices for gas used to generate electricity that powers zinc smelters in Europe have curbed production. China will use timely cuts in banks' reserve requirement ratios and other policy tools to support the economy, the cabinet said, as headwinds increase amid COVID-19 outbreaks. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 3.91% to settled at 1675 while prices up 9 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 374.6 and below same could see a test of 367.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 386.2, a move above could see prices testing 390.6.
Trading Ideas:
Zinc trading range for the day is 367.4-390.6.
Zinc rose as low inventories and hopes for additional stimulus in top metals consumer China outweighed pressure from a stronger dollar.
Zinc inventories in LME-registered warehouses have fallen to their lowest since June 2020 at 117,850 tonnes
China's gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by 4.8% in the first quarter from a year earlier


Nickel

Nickel yesterday settled up by 0.6% at 2516 as Sumitomo Metal sees global nickel demand for battery use at 410,000 in 2022. China manufacturing PMI which stood at 48.83, down 4.62% YoY, and the climate index was greatly impacted by the pandemic. On the supply side, the pandemic has brought transportation problems, and the supply of Jinchuan nickel in Shanghai is relatively tight. As the price difference between SHFE and LME nickel remains great, and the supply of Sumitomo, NORNICKEL, NIKKELVERK nickel and nickel briquette is still tight. In terms of nickel pig iron, the production and transportation problems of NPI plants in Liaoning and Inner Mongolia have been seriously affected, and the output is expected to fall in March. On the demand side, the cost efficiency of self-dissolved nickel briquette in the nickel sulphate plant has not recovered amid high futures prices. In addition, the output of the downstream precursor plants and the ternary cathode material plants did not contract in March thanks to their in-plant stocks, but the inventory in April will be low, hence there is possibility of production cuts. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.62% to settled at 160 while prices up 15 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 2516 and below same could see a test of 2516 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 2516, a move above could see prices testing 2516.
Trading Ideas:
Nickel trading range for the day is 2516-2516.
Nickel gained as Sumitomo Metal sees global nickel demand for battery use at 410,000 in 2022
However upside seen limited amid demand worries due to continued COVID-19 lockdowns in China weighed on the metals.
Nickel briquette prices stood above 200,000 yuan/mt, and demand from nickel sulphate plants may contract.


Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled up by 0.28% at 271.55 as Aluminium stocks in LME-approved warehouses are at 608,000 tonnes as of April 13, their lowest level since 2005. China's economic growth is likely to slow to 5.0% in 2022 amid renewed COVID-19 outbreaks and a weakening global recovery, a Reuters poll showed, raising pressure on the central bank to ease policy further. Growth is then forecast to pick up to 5.2% in 2023. Gross domestic product (GDP) likely grew 4.4% in the first quarter from a year earlier, according to the forecasts, outpacing the fourth-quarter's 4.0% due to a solid start in the first two months. GDP expanded 8.1% in 2021, its best showing in a decade, but momentum cooled markedly over the course of last year, weighed by debt problems in the property market and anti-virus measures that hit consumer confidence and spending. China's exports rose 13.4% in yuan terms in January-March from a year earlier, while imports increased 7.5%, customs data showed. China's new home prices stalled for a second straight month in March, official data showed, as growing COVID-19 lockdowns dampened consumer confidence and weighed on demand. China's central bank kept the interest rate unchanged as it rolled over maturing medium-term policy loans, matching market expectations, despite Beijing calling for more monetary stimulus to cushion an economic slowdown. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 3.29% to settled at 2668 while prices up 0.75 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 269 and below same could see a test of 266.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 273.7, a move above could see prices testing 275.7.
Trading Ideas:
Aluminium trading range for the day is 266.3-275.7.
Aluminium dropped as pressure seen after China's aluminium production in March rose 1.8% from a year earlier
China March aluminium imports down 4.6% y/y amid high overseas prices
The soon-to-be-implemented RRR cut will improve market liquidity, boosting the real economy.


Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -0.86% at 1075.1 on profit booking after prices seen supported on reports that due to poor prices farmers has shifted to other crops resulting lower production. Germany's BASF said it would have to stop production if natural gas supplies fell to less than half its needs, as the world's largest chemicals group warned of the damage to its operations from Europe's power crunch. Mentha farming has lost its allure in Uttar Pradesh as farmers struggle without stable price, MSP and government support. High input costs and lack of support price have drastically brought down the return of farmers who have already been struggling to increase their incomes. Prices gains amid loss in production and improvement in demand while monsoon is yet to be seen as last year heavy rains in the pre-monsoon season came like a disaster for farmer. Last year the unseasonal heavy rainfall in May destroyed the ready to be harvested mentha crop. The month, as per the IMD, was the second wettest May in the past 121 years. Maharashtra and West Bengal lifts all its Covid curbs which will help Mentha oil and its derivatives to gains its demand as they are extensively used in food, pharmaceutical, perfumery, and flavouring industry. FMCG industry reels under extraordinary inflationary pressures, experts believe it will continue to grow in both volume and value, but margins will get squeezed. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained by 9.6 Rupees to end at 1206.5 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.77% to settled at 889 while prices down -9.3 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 1067 and below same could see a test of 1058.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1084.9, a move above could see prices testing 1094.6.
Trading Ideas:
Mentha oil trading range for the day is 1058.8-1094.6.
In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained  by 9.6 Rupees to end at 1206.5 Rupees per 360 kgs.
Mentha oil dropped on profit booking after prices seen supported on reports that due to poor prices farmers has shifted to other crops resulting lower production
Germany's BASF, says it may halt production at world’s biggest chemicals plant in Ludwigshafen if gas supply is halved under Germany's emergency plan.
Maharashtra and West Bengal lifts all its Covid curbs which will help Mentha to gains its demand


Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled down by -3.22% at 8896 as new season turmeric is arriving in the market and exports are normal this season. As per first advance estimates by the Govt for 2021/22 season, the production of turmeric is pegged at 11.76 lakh tonnes in 2021-22 against 11.24 lt in 2020-21. As per govt data, turmeric exports in Jan 2022 is down by 25% m/m at 10,600 tonnes Vs 14275 tonnes in Dec 2021. In Feb, turmeric exports recorded lower by 17% on year at 10400 tonnes vs 12,575 tonnes while in FY 2021/22 (Apr-Feb), exports down 20% at 1.37 lakh tons compared to last year but higher by 8.3% compared with 5-year average. Turmeric crop was damaged in Maharashtra, Nizamabad in Telangana and Kadapa in Andhra Pradesh due to rains and cyclones. The farmers, who incurred losses during this period due to low price, are hoping to get good price this year, so that they could clear their dues to some extent. The market sentiment is buoyant mainly since the ending stocks are expected to be 17-18 lakh bags (50 kg each) this year against 25 lakh bags last year. Spices Board data showed turmeric production this year being projected at 11.01 lakh tonnes against 11.78 lakh tonnes last year, mainly on the output being affected in Telangana, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Assam and Haryana. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 9153.5 Rupees gained 17.8 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.45% to settled at 17485 while prices down -296 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 8772 and below same could see a test of 8646 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 9102, a move above could see prices testing 9306.
Trading Ideas:
Turmeric trading range for the day is 8646-9306.
Turmeric dropped as new season turmeric is arriving in the market and exports are normal this season.
As per first advance estimates, the production of turmeric is pegged at 11.76 lakh tonnes in 2021-22 against 11.24 lt in 2020-21.
In FY 2021/22 (Apr-Feb), exports down 20% at 1.37 lakh tons compared to last year but higher by 8.3% compared with 5-year average.
In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 9153.5 Rupees gained 17.8 Rupees.



Jeera yesterday settled down by -1.43% at 21985 as new crop arrivals started coming with moisture content 8% to 10%. The export of cumin in April-January declined by 23% year-on-year to 1.88 lakh tonnes as compared to 2.44 lakh tonnes in the previous year. Pressure also seen due to tensions between Ukraine and Russia which may disrupt shipments of spices to Europe and other destinations. There were reports of decline in sowing area and improving domestic demand. In 2021-22, the area under cumin in Gujarat is only 3.07 lakh hectares as compared to 4.69 lakh hectares in the same period last year and production is expected to decline by 41% to 2.37 lakh tonnes as compared to last year's 4 lakh tonnes as per second advance estimates. The area under jeera has decreased by about 30% in Rajasthan this year, to 5.39 lakh hectares (lh) from 7.7 lh last year, Spices Board officials confirmed. According to the data released by the commerce department, cumin exports in January 2022 increased by 19% to 14,725 tonnes as compared to 12,385 tonnes in December 2021. Carry-forward stocks would be approximately 25 lakh bags. Last year's jeera crop was 93 lakh bags, with a carryover stock of 20 lakh bags. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -236.1 Rupees to end at 21925 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.19% to settled at 15159 while prices down -320 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 21735 and below same could see a test of 21485 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 22335, a move above could see prices testing 22685.
Trading Ideas:
Jeera trading range for the day is 21485-22685.
Jeera dropped as new crop arrivals started coming with moisture content 8% to 10%
The export of cumin in April-January declined by 23% year-on-year to 1.88 lakh tonnes as compared to 2.44 lakh tonnes in the previous year
There were reports of decline in sowing area and improving domestic demand.
In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -236.1 Rupees to end at 21925 Rupees per 100 kg.


Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled up by 0.98% at 44480 due to concerns over production, slow arrivals, better domestic and exports demand. Domestic cotton arrivals down 25% or 88.95 lakh bales so far this season to around 238 lakh bales compared to last year. As per USDA report, all cotton planted area for coming season (2022) is estimated at 12.2 million acres, up 9 percent from last year. In its latest Apr report, the USDA increase global cotton production forecast in 2021-22 to 120.2 million bales (1 US bale= 218kg), compared to 119.9 million bales in Feb 2022. India’s crop is being unchanged at 26.50 million bales. India allowed duty-free imports of cotton until Sept. 30 as prices in the local market jumped to a record high because of a drop in the production, the government said in a notification. The world's biggest producer of the fibre also removed the Agriculture Infrastructure and Development Cess (AIDC) on the imports, the government said. The total import taxes on cotton was earlier 11%, said Atul Ganatra, president of the Cotton Association of India (CAI). Duty-free imports will help textile mills, which could import around 2.5 million bales of cotton in the 2021/22 marketing year ending on Sept. 30, Ganatra said. In spot market, Cotton gained by 390 Rupees to end at 45010 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -9.29% to settled at 3780 while prices up 430 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 44340 and below same could see a test of 44210 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 44650, a move above could see prices testing 44830.
Trading Ideas:
Cotton trading range for the day is 44210-44830.
Cotton gained due to concerns over production, slow arrivals, better domestic and exports demand.
India allowed duty-free imports of cotton until Sept. 30 as prices in the local market jumped to a record high because of a drop in the production.
India's cotton output is likely to fall to 33.51 million bales in the current year from last year's 35.3 million bales, estimates CAI.
In spot market, Cotton gained  by 390 Rupees to end at 45010 Rupees.

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