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 Gold 

Gold yesterday settled down by -0.39% at 50610 as impending interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve sparked a rally in the dollar, which, in turn, spooked investors away from the metal. The Central Bank is widely seen raising the target for the fed funds rate by a half-point to 0.5%-1% later this week to tame inflation, currently at 40-year highs. Still, the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine and broadening inflationary pressures lifted the safe-haven bids for the precious metal. U.S. private payrolls increased less than expected in April, likely restrained by persistent worker shortages. Private payrolls rose by 247,000 jobs last month, the ADP National Employment Report showed. Data for March was revised higher to show 479,000 jobs added instead of the initially reported 455,000. The ADP report is jointly developed with Moody's Analytics and was published ahead of the Labor Department's more comprehensive and closely watched employment report for April. Gold sales rebounded on Akshaya Tritiya after remaining subdued for past two years due to Covid-19 as a decline in the metal's prices led to heavy footfall at jewellery stores. Jewellers witnessed heavy interest among customers to buy gold on this Akshaya Tritiya, which is considered auspicious for buying the precious metal, and sales are expected to be 10 per cent higher than last Akshaya Tritiya. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.87% to settled at 10281 while prices down -198 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 50464 and below same could see a test of 50319 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 50792, a move above could see prices testing 50975.
Trading Ideas:
Gold trading range for the day is 50319-50975.
Gold dropped as impending interest rate hikes from Fed sparked a rally in the dollar, which, in turn, spooked investors away from the metal.
Still, the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine and broadening inflationary pressures lifted the safe-haven bids for the precious metal.
U.S. private payrolls growth slows in April – ADP

Silver

Silver yesterday settled down by -1.48% at 62114 ahead of an expected interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve, with traders watching for an even more hawkish tone than many expect from the central bank. The Fed is widely expected to hike rates by a hefty 50 basis points and announce plans to reduce its $9 trillion balance sheet when it concludes its two-day meeting later today. Comments by Fed Chair Jerome Powell after the meeting will also be scrutinized for any new indications on whether the Fed will continue to hike rates to battle rising price pressures even if the economy weakens. Meanwhile, weaker-than-expected quarterly US growth data last week proved little obstacle to the dollar’s rise, and investors hardly adjusted their near-term interest rate bets. Fears of an economic slowdown in Europe and China also drove safe haven flows into the dollar. U.S. job openings increased to a record high in March as worker shortages persisted, suggesting that employers could continue to raise wages and help keep inflation uncomfortably high. Job openings, a measure of labor demand, rose by 205,000 to 11.5 million on the last day of March, the Labor Department said in its monthly Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS report. The second straight monthly increase lifted job openings to the highest level since the series started in 2000. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 9.53% to settled at 15571 while prices down -935 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 61665 and below same could see a test of 61215 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 62814, a move above could see prices testing 63513.
Trading Ideas:
Silver trading range for the day is 61215-63513.
Silver dropped ahead of an expected interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve, with traders watching for an even more hawkish tone.
Fears of an economic slowdown in Europe and China also drove safe haven flows into the dollar.
U.S. job openings hit record high of 11.5 million in March

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled up by 4.31% at 8225 as the European Union, the world's largest trading bloc, spelled out plans to phase out imports of Russian oil, offsetting demand worries in top importer China. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen proposed a phased oil embargo on Russia over its war in Ukraine, as well as sanctioning Russia's top bank, in a bid to deepen Moscow's isolation. OPEC+ sees a surplus of 1.9 million barrels per day in 2022, 600,000 bpd higher from a previous forecast, amid expectations of slower demand growth this year. The report, prepared ahead of a meeting of the OPEC+ Joint Technical Committee meeting, also sees OECD oil stocks slightly exceeding the 2015-2019 average in the fourth quarter. The revision reflects a weaker oil demand growth forecast adopted by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in its April oil monthly report. OPEC now expects 2022 world oil demand to expand by 3.67 million bpd in 2022, down 480,000 bpd from its previous forecast. The group cited the impact of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, rising inflation as crude prices soar and the resurgence of the Omicron coronavirus variant in China as reasons for the revision. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 43.29% to settled at 6047 while prices up 340 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 8007 and below same could see a test of 7790 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 8348, a move above could see prices testing 8472.
Trading Ideas:
Crude oil trading range for the day is 7790-8472.
Crude oil prices jumped as EU, spelled out plans to phase out imports of Russian oil, offsetting demand worries in top importer China.
OPEC+ sees bigger 2022 surplus amid slower demand growth
OPEC chief says China lockdowns hitting oil demand

Nat.Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 5.44% at 641 on prospects for increased demand for U.S. LNG exports, while warmer-than-usual weather forecasts could increase cooling demand. The European Union was preparing sanctions on Russian oil, with possible exemptions for wary countries, and warned that complying in full with Moscow's proposed scheme to receive gas payments in roubles would breach existing EU sanctions. On a daily basis, output dropped about 1.9 bcfd to a preliminary 92.7 bcfd on Tuesday, data from Refinitiv showed. Forecasts from the data provider also showed temperatures over the next two weeks are estimated to be warmer than usual with 93 cooling degree days (CDDs) projected compared with a 30-year average of 66 CDDs for the period. U.S. gas futures have soared nearly 100% so far this year, with much higher prices in Europe keeping demand for U.S. LNG near record highs as several countries try to wean themselves off Russian gas after Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24. European Union energy ministers on Monday held crisis talks on Russia's demand that foreign buyers pay for gas in roubles or lose their supply, while the bloc prepares a ban on Russian oil, with possible exemptions for some wary countries. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 8.56% to settled at 7429 while prices up 33.1 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 608.1 and below same could see a test of 575.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 660.9, a move above could see prices testing 680.7.
Trading Ideas:
Natural gas trading range for the day is 575.1-680.7.
Natural gas jumped on prospects for increased demand for U.S. LNG exports, while warmer-than-usual weather forecasts could increase cooling demand.
There also are expectations that the United States is going to continue to export record amounts of LNG, further lending support to prices.
The premium for futures for July over June rose to 11 cents per mmBtu, putting the spread on track to close at a record high for a third day in a row.


Copper

Copper yesterday settled up by 0.24% at 765.45 on short covering as China's PBOC pledges policy support to counter pandemic woes. The global copper market is expected to see a surplus of 142,000 tonnes this year and of 352,000 tonnes in 2023, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) said. "World mine production this year is expected to benefit from additional output from new and expanded mines as well as an improvement in the general situation regarding the pandemic," the ICSG said in a release. Global refined copper production is expected to rise by about 4.3% in 2022 and 3.6% in 2023, mainly supported by the continued expansion of Chinese electrolytic capacity and new and expanded operations in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). World apparent refined copper usage is expected to increase by about 1.9% in 2022 and 2.8% in 2023, the Group said. ICSG revised the world usage growth down to 1.9%, citing a weaker global economic outlook mainly as a consequence of the Russia-Ukraine situation and the negative effect COVID-19 related lockdowns in China. Fitch said it has cut China's GDP growth forecast for 2022 to 4.3% from 4.8%, saying pandemic-related disruptions have had an impact on the country's economy in the first two quarters of the year. Global copper smelting activity rose in April even as COVID-19 lockdowns intensified in top producer China, data from satellite surveillance of metal processing plants showed. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.15% to settled at 4217 while prices up 1.8 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 757.6 and below same could see a test of 749.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 770.7, a move above could see prices testing 775.8.
Trading Ideas:
Copper trading range for the day is 749.6-775.8.
Copper gained on short covering as China's PBOC pledges policy support to counter pandemic woes.
Fitch said it has cut China's GDP growth forecast for 2022 to 4.3% from 4.8%
Global copper smelting activity rose in April even as COVID-19 lockdowns intensified in top producer China

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled up by 1.48% at 335 as China's central bank pledged monetary policy support to ensure ample liquidity, help businesses badly hit by the latest COVID-19 outbreak in the country and support a recovery in consumption. The remarks came after a top decision-making body of the ruling Communist Party last week also vowed to support the economy. "(We shall) waste no time planning incremental policy tools to support steady economic growth, stabilise employment and prices ... to provide a fair monetary and financial environment," the People's Bank of China said in a statement. The bank also called for "stable and orderly" growth in financing the real estate sector, which has experienced a prolonged slowdown in recent months. COVID-19 restrictions in top consumer China and the prospect of aggressive U.S. rate hikes fuelled worries about weaker global growth hitting metals demand. The global zinc market moved to a surplus of 14,300 tonnes in February from a revised deficit of 17,500 tonnes a month earlier, data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) showed. Previously, the ILZSG had reported a deficit of 15,000 tonnes in January. During the first two months of 2022, ILZSG data showed a deficit of 3,000 tonnes versus a surplus of 92,000 tonnes in the same period of 2021. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -9.01% to settled at 1161 while prices up 4.9 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 330.1 and below same could see a test of 325.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 338.4, a move above could see prices testing 341.7.
Trading Ideas:
Zinc trading range for the day is 325.1-341.7.
Zinc gained as China's central bank pledged monetary policy support to ensure ample liquidity
However, COVID-19 restrictions in top consumer China fuelled worries about weaker global growth hitting metals demand.
China's PBOC pledges policy support to counter pandemic woes

Nickel

Nickel yesterday settled down by -3.97% at 2376 as Sumitomo Metal sees global nickel demand for battery use at 410,000 in 2022. China manufacturing PMI which stood at 48.83, down 4.62% YoY, and the climate index was greatly impacted by the pandemic. On the supply side, the pandemic has brought transportation problems, and the supply of Jinchuan nickel in Shanghai is relatively tight. As the price difference between SHFE and LME nickel remains great, and the supply of Sumitomo, NORNICKEL, NIKKELVERK nickel and nickel briquette is still tight. In terms of nickel pig iron, the production and transportation problems of NPI plants in Liaoning and Inner Mongolia have been seriously affected, and the output is expected to fall in March. On the demand side, the cost efficiency of self-dissolved nickel briquette in the nickel sulphate plant has not recovered amid high futures prices. In addition, the output of the downstream precursor plants and the ternary cathode material plants did not contract in March thanks to their in-plant stocks, but the inventory in April will be low, hence there is possibility of production cuts. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed remain unchanged in open interest by 0% to settled at 43 while prices down -98.2 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 2376 and below same could see a test of 2376 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 2376, a move above could see prices testing 2376.
Trading Ideas:
Nickel trading range for the day is 2376-2376.
Nickel settled flat as Sumitomo Metal sees global nickel demand for battery use at 410,000 in 2022
Global nickel market sees surplus in February – INSG
Nickel briquette prices stood above 200,000 yuan/mt, and demand from nickel sulphate plants may contract.

Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled up by 1.4% at 246.95 as China's Communist Party said the country would step up policy support to stabilise the economy. COVID-19 lockdowns in China and prospects of aggressive U.S. interest rate hikes fuelled worries over a global economic slowdown. Aluminium stocks at three major Japanese ports rose 20.3% to 354,300 tonnes at the end of March from 294,600 tonnes at the end of February. China's capital Beijing closed more businesses and residential compounds, with authorities ramping up contact tracing to contain a COVID-19 outbreak, while resentment at the month-long lockdown in Shanghai grew. Euro zone manufacturing output growth stalled last month as factories struggled to source raw materials while demand took a knock from steep price increases and fears about the economic outlook, a survey showed. Russia's invasion of Ukraine, coupled with renewed COVID-19 related lockdowns in China, have exacerbated supply chain bottlenecks and left factories struggling and forward looking indicators in the survey did not point to an imminent turnaround. The official NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI for China sank to 41.9 in April of 2022 from February's reading of 48.4, pointing to the second consecutive month of decline, amid downward pressure from tough COVID-19 measures following outbreaks in many cities, including Shanghai and Beijing. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.12% to settled at 2626 while prices up 3.4 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 242.4 and below same could see a test of 237.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 250.1, a move above could see prices testing 253.1.
Trading Ideas:
Aluminium trading range for the day is 237.7-253.1.
Aluminium gained as China's Communist Party said the country would step up policy support to stabilise the economy.
COVID-19 lockdowns in China and prospects of aggressive U.S. interest rate hikes fuelled worries over a global economic slowdown.
Japan aluminium stocks in March up 20.3% m/m

Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -1.19% at 1064.6 on profit booking after prices gained as the harvest is expected to be almost the same as last year's in Barabanki area but harvesting this year is expected to be delayed. Crop growth is poor this year compared with last year despite use of fertiliser. The plant is about 25% less than the total crop, water is being felt after every three days. Prices gained on reports that due to poor prices farmers has shifted to other crops resulting lower production. Germany's BASF said it would have to stop production if natural gas supplies fell to less than half its needs, as the world's largest chemicals group warned of the damage to its operations from Europe's power crunch. Mentha farming has lost its allure in Uttar Pradesh as farmers struggle without stable price, MSP and government support. High input costs and lack of support price have drastically brought down the return of farmers who have already been struggling to increase their incomes. Prices gains amid loss in production and improvement in demand while monsoon is yet to be seen as last year heavy rains in the pre-monsoon season came like a disaster for farmer. FMCG industry reels under extraordinary inflationary pressures, experts believe it will continue to grow in both volume and value, but margins will get squeezed. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained by 11.6 Rupees to end at 1206.1 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.84% to settled at 1065 while prices down -12.8 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 1058.2 and below same could see a test of 1051.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1076.1, a move above could see prices testing 1087.5.
Trading Ideas:
Mentha oil trading range for the day is 1051.7-1087.5.
In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained  by 11.6 Rupees to end at 1206.1 Rupees per 360 kgs.
Mentha oil dropped on profit booking after prices gained as the harvest is expected to be almost the same as last year's in Barabanki area but harvesting to be delayed.
Crop growth is poor this year compared with last year despite use of fertiliser.
The plant is about 25% less than the total crop, water is being felt after every three days.

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled down by -1.3% at 8176 as new season turmeric is arriving in the market and exports are normal this season. As per first advance estimates by the Govt for 2021/22 season, the production of turmeric is pegged at 11.76 lakh tonnes in 2021-22 against 11.24 lt in 2020-21. As per govt data, turmeric exports in Jan 2022 is down by 25% m/m at 10,600 tonnes Vs 14275 tonnes in Dec 2021. In Feb, turmeric exports recorded lower by 17% on year at 10400 tonnes vs 12,575 tonnes while in FY 2021/22 (Apr-Feb), exports down 20% at 1.37 lakh tons compared to last year but higher by 8.3% compared with 5-year average. Turmeric crop was damaged in Maharashtra, Nizamabad in Telangana and Kadapa in Andhra Pradesh due to rains and cyclones. The farmers, who incurred losses during this period due to low price, are hoping to get good price this year, so that they could clear their dues to some extent. The market sentiment is buoyant mainly since the ending stocks are expected to be 17-18 lakh bags (50 kg each) this year against 25 lakh bags last year. Spices Board data showed turmeric production this year being projected at 11.01 lakh tonnes against 11.78 lakh tonnes last year, mainly on the output being affected in Telangana, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Assam and Haryana. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 8575.1 Rupees dropped -31 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -9.3% to settled at while prices down -108 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 8102 and below same could see a test of 8026 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 8296, a move above could see prices testing 8414.
Trading Ideas:
Turmeric trading range for the day is 8026-8414.
Turmeric dropped as new season turmeric is arriving in the market and exports are normal this season.
As per first advance estimates, the production of turmeric is pegged at 11.76 lakh tonnes in 2021-22 against 11.24 lt in 2020-21.
In FY 2021/22 (Apr-Feb), exports down 20% at 1.37 lakh tons compared to last year but higher by 8.3% compared with 5-year average.
In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 8575.1 Rupees dropped -31 Rupees.

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled down by -0.35% at 21400 as new crop arrivals started coming with moisture content 8% to 10%. The low yield in India will affect the global prices as the country is the largest producer of jeera or cumin in the world. Total cumin output is estimated to have declined about 35% year-on-year to 558 million tonnes in 2022. The main reason for the low yield and low acreage under cultivation is that during the cumin sowing period (October-December 2021) farmers shifted to gram and mustard whose prices were higher than that of cumin. Secondly, excess rainfall in the key cumin belts of Dwarka, Banaskantha and Kutch in Gujarat, and Jodhpur and Nagaur in Rajasthan increased the probability of wilt attack, preventing farmers from sowing the crop. Unjha mandi in Gujarat, which accounts for ~40% of India’s cumin arrivals, witnessed a 60% on-year decline in arrivals in March 2022. While arrivals for April (1st – 23rd) show ~38% increase on-year, it is on a low base of last year where there were no arrivals in the second half of April amid the pandemic. Fall in exports will put pressure on global price as well. Short supply from India, higher prices in Turkey and estimated lower production in Syria will support the bullish trend. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -177.55 Rupees to end at 21519.5 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -7.3% to settled at while prices down -75 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 21240 and below same could see a test of 21075 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 21610, a move above could see prices testing 21815.
Trading Ideas:
Jeera trading range for the day is 21075-21815.
Jeera dropped as new crop arrivals started coming with moisture content 8% to 10%
The low yield in India will affect the global prices as the country is the largest producer of jeera or cumin in the world.
Total cumin output is estimated to have declined about 35% year-on-year to 558 million tonnes in 2022.
In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -177.55 Rupees to end at 21519.5 Rupees per 100 kg.

Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled up by 1.29% at 46240 due to concerns over production, slow arrivals, better domestic and exports demand. Domestic cotton arrivals down 25% or 88.95 lakh bales so far this season to around 238 lakh bales compared to last year. The Telangana government is targeting to increase the area under cotton by 55–65 per cent to about 28–30 lakh hectares (lh) from last year’s 18 lakh hectares even as the cottonseed industry pegged the growth in cotton acreage at 15 per cent in the upcoming kharif season, starting July. As per USDA report, all cotton planted area for coming season (2022) is estimated at 12.2 million acres, up 9 percent from last year. In its latest Apr report, the USDA increase global cotton production forecast in 2021-22 to 120.2 million bales (1 US bale= 218kg), compared to 119.9 million bales in Feb 2022. India’s crop is being unchanged at 26.50 million bales. India allowed duty-free imports of cotton until Sept. 30 as prices in the local market jumped to a record high because of a drop in the production, the government said in a notification. The world's biggest producer of the fibre also removed the Agriculture Infrastructure and Development Cess (AIDC) on the imports, the government said. In spot market, Cotton gained by 590 Rupees to end at 46000 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.37% to settled at 3745 while prices up 590 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 45630 and below same could see a test of 45020 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 46750, a move above could see prices testing 47260.
Trading Ideas:
Cotton trading range for the day is 45020-47260.
Cotton prices rose due to concerns over production, slow arrivals, better domestic and exports demand.
India allowed duty-free imports of cotton until Sept. 30 as prices in the local market jumped to a record high because of a drop in the production.
India's cotton output is likely to fall to 33.51 million bales in the current year from last year's 35.3 million bales, estimates CAI.
In spot market, Cotton gained  by 590 Rupees to end at 46000 Rupees.

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