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Gold
Gold yesterday settled up by 1.36% at 51701 as data showing a bigger than expected increase in U.S. consumer price inflation triggered a sell-off in equity markets and boosted the demand for the safe-haven commodity. Meanwhile, the ECB will end asset purchases on July 1st, followed by a 25 bps rate hike. The central bank also signalled a bigger rate increase could be necessary in September if the inflation outlook deteriorates. Annual inflation in the Euro Area continued to break fresh records in May and new ECB staff projections foresee yearly inflation at 6.8% in 2022 before declining to 3.5% in 2023 and 2.1% in 2024. The central bank targets inflation at 2%. Gold discounts in India were stretched to their highest level in seven weeks as higher prices repelled demand, while fresh concerns over the spread of COVID in top-consumer China left buyers reluctant to make purchases. Dealers in India were offering a discount of up to $10 an ounce over official domestic prices up from the last week's discount of $9. In China, gold was being sold at a discount of $1.5 to a premium of $0.5 an ounce versus global benchmark spot rates. In Hong Kong, gold continued to be sold at a discount of about $1.8 an ounce to a $1 premium, while in Japan, gold was sold between a premium of 50 cents and at par with the benchmark. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.65% to settled at 14446 while prices up 696 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 50815 and below same could see a test of 49929 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 52192, a move above could see prices testing 52683.
Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 49929-52683.
* Gold prices surged higher as data showing a bigger than expected increase in U.S. consumer price inflation triggered a sell-off in equity
* The annual inflation rate in the US unexpectedly accelerated to 8.6% in May of 2022, the highest since December 1981.
* Meanwhile, the ECB will end asset purchases on July 1st, followed by a 25 bps rate hike.

Silver
Silver yesterday settled up by 0.84% at 61929 as investors became increasingly worried about the economic outlook, despite stronger support for more aggressive tightening moves by the US Fed. Fresh CPI figures for the US showed the inflation rate unexpectedly accelerated in May to 41-year highs, raising prospects the Fed will keep an aggressive rate-hike path. U.S. consumer prices accelerated in May as gasoline prices hit a record high and the cost of services rose further, suggesting that the Federal Reserve could continue with its 50 basis points interest rate hikes through September to combat inflation. The consumer price index increased 1.0% last month after gaining 0.3% in April, the Labor Department said. They were flirting with $5 per gallon on Friday, indicating that the monthly CPI would remain elevated in June. The Fed is set to deliver two more 50 basis point rate increases at its June and July meetings following a similar move in May. Other central banks around the world including the ECB and the RBA have also set a more hawkish tone, as inflation is not showing signs of peaking. Meanwhile, risks to the global economic outlook arising from the war in Ukraine, rising borrowing costs, ongoing supply disruptions, and high commodity prices continued to prevent the metal to fall further. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -13.44% to settled at 12032 while prices up 518 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 60760 and below same could see a test of 59590 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 62590, a move above could see prices testing 63250.
Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 59590-63250.
* Silver rose as investors became increasingly worried about the economic outlook
* Fresh CPI figures for the US showed the inflation rate unexpectedly accelerated in May to 41-year highs
* The Fed is set to deliver two more 50 basis point rate increases at its June and July meetings following a similar move in May.

Crude oil
Crude oil yesterday settled down by -0.78% at 9399 as China imposed new COVID-19 lockdown measures and U.S. consumer prices rose more than expected, but crude prices ended another week with gains due to solid demand for fuels in the United States. Norway's oil output could be reduced if workers go on strike, the Norwegian Oil and Gas Association (NOG) said. Oil output at Libya's Sarir field has also been reduced after the ports of Ras Lanuf and Es Sider were closed and as a group threatened to close Hariga port, two oil engineers at the field said. Kuwait raised the July official selling prices for its crude grades from the previous month, but they remain lower than the record levels set for May. The producer has set the July Kuwait Export Crude (KEC) prices at $6.15 a barrel above the average of DME Oman and Platts Dubai quotes, compared to $4.35 a barrel for June. Saudi Aramco has notified at least four North Asian buyers that it will cut their contractual volumes of crude oil in July. The reduction came after the top oil exporter raised its official selling prices to unexpected high levels and as European buyers scramble to replace crude supply from Russia following the European Union's agreement to impose a gradual oil embargo on Moscow. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -16.35% to settled at 11782 while prices down -74 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 9249 and below same could see a test of 9098 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 9548, a move above could see prices testing 9696.
Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 9098-9696.
* Crude oil slipped as China imposed new COVID-19 lockdown measures and U.S. consumer prices rose more than expected
* Oil output at Libya's Sarir field has also been reduced after the ports of Ras Lanuf and Es Sider were closed
* Kuwait raises July crude prices for Asia

Natural Gas
Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 0.3% at 693.4 on record power demand in Texas this week, a smaller-than-usual storage build, rising spot gas prices, low wind power and a decline in gas production so far this month. The Freeport shutdown and cooler weather from thunderstorms also helped prevent peak power demand in Texas from breaking the all-time high so far. U.S. storage was currently about 15%, or 340 bcf, below normal levels for this time of year, its lowest since April 2019. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states fell to 94.8 bcfd so far in June from 95.1 bcfd in May. That compares with a monthly record of 96.1 bcfd in December 2021. With hotter weather coming, Refinitiv projected that average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would rise from 89.4 bcfd this week to 93.0 bcfd for the next two weeks. The forecast for this week was lower than Refinitiv's outlook on Thursday. The average amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants fell to 12.2 bcfd so far in June from 12.5 bcfd in May, according to data from Refinitiv. That compares with a monthly record of 12.9 bcfd in March. The seven big U.S. export plants can turn about 13.6 bcfd of gas into LNG. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -5.43% to settled at 5363 while prices up 2.1 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 674.2 and below same could see a test of 654.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 712.8, a move above could see prices testing 732.1.
Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 654.9-732.1.
* Natural gas gained on record power demand in Texas, a smaller-than-usual storage build, low wind power and a decline in gas production.
* U.S. storage was currently about 15%, or 340 bcf, below normal levels for this time of year, its lowest since April 2019.
* EIA said utilities added 97 bcf of gas to storage during the week ended June 3.

Copper
Copper yesterday settled down by -1.38% at 776.5 as pressure seen after copper inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 18.7 percent from last release on Jun 02, the exchange said. Shanghai and Beijing went back on fresh COVID-19 alert after parts of China's largest economic hub imposed new lockdown restrictions and the city announced a round of mass testing for millions of residents. Risky assets also fell as the European Central Bank's rate-hike outlook unnerved investors amid heightened concerns about global slowdown. China's factory-gate inflation cooled in May, official data showed, depressed by weak demand for steel, aluminium and other key industrial commodities due to tight COVID-19 curbs. The producer price index (PPI) rose 6.4% year-on-year, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said in a statement, after the 8.0% rise in April, and in line with forecasts. It was the weakest reading since March 2021. The consumer price index (CPI) gained 2.1% from a year earlier in May, in line with April's growth. The world's second-largest economy has slowed significantly in recent months, hit by strict COVID-19 controls, disrupting supply chains and jolting production and consumption. A group of indigenous Peruvian communities agreed to temporarily lift a protest against MMG Ltd's Las Bambas copper mine that forced the company to halt operations for more than 50 days, the longest in the mine's history. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.31% to settled at 4018 while prices down -10.9 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 772.4 and below same could see a test of 768.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 783.5, a move above could see prices testing 790.6.
Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 768.4-790.6.
* Copper prices dropped as pressure seen after copper inventories in SHFE warehouses rose by 18.7 percent.
* Shanghai and Beijing went back on fresh COVID-19 alert after parts of China's largest economic hub imposed new lockdown restrictions
* Peru communities to allow Las Bambas mine restart after 51-day shutdown

Zinc
Zinc yesterday settled down by -1.29% at 320.95 as renewed COVID-19 restrictions in top consumer China rekindled demand worries. Risky assets also fell as the European Central Bank's rate-hike outlook unnerved investors amid heightened concerns about global slowdown. Total zinc inventories across seven major markets in China stood at 231,800 mt as of June 10, down 3,100 mt from June 6 and 6,800 mt from June 2. Overall, the inventory in the seven markets continued to decrease. China’s refined zinc output was 515,200 mt in May, an increase of 19,700 mt or 3.97% MoM and an increase of 4.16% YoY, SMM data showed. From January to May 2022, the combined refined zinc output is estimated to be 2.483 million mt, a decrease of 1.09% year on year. Survey showed that China's refined zinc output in May basically has met expectations. The output increased mainly because a large smelter in Yunnan resumed the production after maintenance. Meanwhile, some smelters in Shaanxi and Sichuan and a smelter in Inner Mongolia raised their operating rates, and some small smelters in Guangxi returned to normal production. China's annual inflation rate was at 2.1% in May 2022, unchanged from April's five month high figure and compared with market forecasts of 2.2%. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.44% to settled at 1121 while prices down -4.2 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 318.9 and below same could see a test of 316.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 324.2, a move above could see prices testing 327.4.
Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 316.8-327.4.
* Zinc prices dropped as renewed COVID-19 restrictions in top consumer China rekindled demand worries.
* Risky assets also fell as the European Central Bank's rate-hike outlook unnerved investors amid heightened concerns about global slowdown.
* Goldman Sachs lowered its 2022 growth forecast to 4% from 4.5%, below China's official target of around 5.5%.

Aluminium
Aluminium yesterday settled down by -2.14% at 228.15 as there are new actions concerning pandemic prevention control in China, which affected the market sentiment. The market digested ECB interest rate resolution, and falling Euro shored up the US dollar index, pressuring non-ferrous metals. On the supply side, aluminium output kept rising, weighing on aluminium prices. The stimulus packages boosted the market confidence, but it will take some time before the demand picks up substantially. Near-term market was still cautious on the scandal of repeated pledges on aluminium ingot stocks. China's factory-gate inflation cooled to its slowest pace in 14 months in May, official data showed, depressed by weak demand for steel, aluminium and other key industrial commodities due to tight COVID-19 curbs. The producer price index (PPI) rose 6.4% year-on-year, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said in a statement, after the 8.0% rise in April, and in line with forecasts. It was the weakest reading since March 2021. China's annual inflation rate was at 2.1% in May 2022, unchanged from April's five-month high figure and compared with market forecasts of 2.2%. Prices of food rose the most since September 2020, up for the second straight month (2.3% vs 1.9% in April), as consumption strengthened following an easing of COVID-19 curbs in key cities, including Shanghai and Beijing. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 6.48% to settled at 3172 while prices down -5 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 225.6 and below same could see a test of 222.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 232, a move above could see prices testing 235.7.
Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 222.9-235.7.
* Aluminium dropped as there are new actions concerning pandemic prevention control in China, affected the market sentiment
* China's factory-gate inflation cooled to its slowest pace in 14 months in May, official data showed
* China's annual inflation rate was at 2.1% in May 2022, unchanged from April's five-month high figure

Mentha oil
Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -1.44% at 1023.2 on profit booking as Synthetic Mentha supply remains uninterrupted. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. However, downside seen limited amid low production this season and improving demand post-pandemic. The harvest is expected to be almost the same as last year's in Barabanki area but harvesting this year is expected to be delayed. Crop growth is poor this year compared with last year despite use of fertiliser. The plant is about 25% less than the total crop, water is being felt after every three days. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year we forecast production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. Germany's BASF said it would have to stop production if natural gas supplies fell to less than half its needs, as the world's largest chemicals group warned of the damage to its operations from Europe's power crunch. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained by 7.4 Rupees to end at 1162.7 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.43% to settled at 884 while prices down -14.9 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 1016.2 and below same could see a test of 1009.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1035.3, a move above could see prices testing 1047.3.
Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 1009.1-1047.3.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained  by 7.4 Rupees to end at 1162.7 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil dropped on profit booking as Synthetic Mentha supply remains uninterrupted.
* Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry.
* However, downside seen limited amid low production this season and improving demand post-pandemic.

Turmeric
Turmeric yesterday settled down by -0.88% at 8122 amid reports of sufficient stocks and good sowing progress in south India is pressurizing the prices. As per latest export figures, turmeric exports in Mar 2022 jumped higher 27.4% y/y at 15,750 tonnes vs 12,360 tonnes while for the period of Jan-Mar 2022, exports are only down by 1.15% y/y at 36,750 tonnes. In FY 2021/22, exports were down 16.7% y/y at 1.53 lakh tons but higher by 10% compared with 5-year average. The arrivals of New season turmeric are diminishing and exports demand is improving as season progresses. Traders and exporters are expecting the prices to remain stable as Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh turmeric arrivals have also increased. Kocha arrivals are good at markets in Sangli, Hingoli and Nanded regions in Maharashtra. Due to aggressive coverages by oleoresin companies, prices were steady during the month. Panangali arrivals have started in Salem, Erode and Gundalpet markets. Turmeric harvesting in Indonesia is likely to start during June – July 2022. Crop is reported to be normal. Domestic demand reduced particularly with the new season crop supplies from Marathwada region of Maharashtra during April. Turmeric all India production for 2022 is estimated at 4.67 lakh tonnes, revised after crop damage due to excessive rainfall in Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana during October and November. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 8259.55 Rupees gained 55.85 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 14.01% to settled at 12250 while prices down -72 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 8084 and below same could see a test of 8048 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 8168, a move above could see prices testing 8216.
Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 8048-8216.
* Turmeric dropped amid reports of sufficient stocks and good sowing progress in south India is pressurizing the prices.
* As per latest export figures, turmeric exports in Mar 2022 jumped higher 27.4% y/y at 15,750 tonnes vs 12,360 tonnes
* For the period of Jan-Mar 2022, exports are only down by 1.15% y/y at 36,750 tonnes.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 8259.55 Rupees gained 55.85 Rupees.

Jeera
Jeera yesterday settled up by 0.42% at 21345 because of lower production of the spice in the country, partly because many farmers shifted to more lucrative commodities. Cumin exports dropped by 60.58% in March 2022 to around 13406.43 tonnes as against 33203.08 tonnes in March 2021. On daily basis Jeera arrivals in Unjha market were around 5,000 bags, Saurashtra and Gondal market around 800 t0 1,000 bags are arriving. Similarly, in Rajasthan also daily arrivals have remained weak, in Jodhpur market around 1,500 bags, at Nagaur 500 bags and other centres 500 bags arrivals noted. Currently, steady demand can be seen from Bangladesh and other Islamic countries. And due to Bakri-Eid in July further increase in demand is expected. Demand from China has declined due to higher domestic prices in India. Around 32,407 tonnes and 42,788 tonnes have been exported to Bangladesh and China respectively during 2021-22 (Apr-Feb). Cumin seed exports during the current season are likely to remain low as the current crop is very less this time. Cumin seed exports during 2021-22 (Apr-Feb) has declined by 24 percent at 1.91 lakh tonnes as compared to 2.52 lakh tonnes exported last year same period In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -42.6 Rupees to end at 21344.3 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 11.55% to settled at 12462 while prices up 90 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 21010 and below same could see a test of 20680 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 21560, a move above could see prices testing 21780.
Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 20680-21780.
* Jeera gained because of lower production of the spice in the country, partly because many farmers shifted to more lucrative commodities.
* Currently, steady demand can be seen from Bangladesh and other Islamic countries. And due to Bakri-Eid in July further increase in demand is expected.
* Cumin exports dropped by 60.58% in March 2022 as compared to March 2021
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -42.6 Rupees to end at 21344.3 Rupees per 100 kg.

Cotton
Cotton yesterday settled up by 1.32% at 46970 as support seen after reports of 18 per cent less area under cotton sown than last year in Punjab. Despite the Punjab government setting a target to have 4 lakh hectares under cotton to reduce land under paddy, the state has witnessed an 18 per cent decrease from last year, when about 3.03 lakh hectares of the then targeted 3.25 lakh hectares were under cotton. Till now, cotton was sown on only 2.48 lakh hectares of land; the cotton sowing is almost over. Also, Punjab could achieve only 62% of its targeted area this year. Punjab's Mansa district recorded 45,000 hectares under cotton, a 7,000-hectare decrease from the 52,000 hectares recorded last year. A target of 64,000 hectares was set for the district. The pink bollworm attack on Bt cotton has left farmers worried in Mansa district, the cotton belt of Punjab. At some places, farmers have even started spraying on their own to protect the crop. The Agriculture Department has barred farmers from spraying indiscriminately on the cotton crop. Experts in the department described the attack as “minor” and said it was below the ETL (economic threshold level). In spot market, Cotton gained by 590 Rupees to end at 47690 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.4% to settled at 2478 while prices up 610 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 46400 and below same could see a test of 45830 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 47460, a move above could see prices testing 47950.
Trading Ideas:
* Cotton trading range for the day is 45830-47950.
* Cotton gains as support seen after reports of 18 per cent less area under cotton sown than last year in Punjab.
* Punjab's Mansa district recorded 45,000 hectares under cotton, a 7,000-hectare decrease from the 52,000 hectares recorded last year.
* Pink bollworm attack leaves Mansa's cotton farmers worried
* In spot market, Cotton gained  by 590 Rupees to end at 47690 Rupees.

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